Real estate, post level 4

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Mad Scientist
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#2753183 1-Aug-2021 13:02

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ghost-houses-increasing-why-are-40000-homes-lying-vacant-in-auckland/MD7REG67TBCIWB2NITGJCH5SH4/

mattwnz

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#2753185 1-Aug-2021 13:07

heavenlywild:
tdgeek:

People can be fickle. Build a house with land for 500k, on the market for 585k, most people think the 585k is fair, as its the price. Just like the price of baked beans, its the price.

Actually it's even easier than that. A 50k deposit secures the land and the build. Pay nothing more until settlement. No headaches at all, just sit back and watch it grow in value.

It sounds awfully too easy but the truth is the government, the market, NZ's love of houses, and COVID, has caused this profit taking to be the norm, and is sped up 5x.

So they are building the house for you without any other payments apart from the 50k deposit? I haven't seen any developers offering that deal in my area. They need the buyer to enter into a building contract which also means progress payments as the house is built.

mattwnz

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#2753187 1-Aug-2021 13:11

Batman:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ghost-houses-increasing-why-are-40000-homes-lying-vacant-in-auckland/MD7REG67TBCIWB2NITGJCH5SH4/

They don't exist and are not the reason for a lack of houses. At least that is what they want us to believe. I believe ghost house are a problem but there are no official stats, and there is no political motivation to do anything about taxing vacant houses like they do overseas

quickymart

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#2753227 1-Aug-2021 14:57

If there were indeed 40,000 ghost houses - as they're called in this article - and they had to be made available for sale, say, tomorrow...that would make a sizeable dent in the current shortfall, I reckon. But mattw you reckon this isn't accurate?

mattwnz

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#2753242 1-Aug-2021 15:44

quickymart:
If there were indeed 40,000 ghost houses - as they're called in this article - and they had to be made available for sale, say, tomorrow...that would make a sizeable dent in the current shortfall, I reckon. But mattw you reckon this isn't accurate?

It could also crash the housing market as there are only about 15,000 houses currently for sale in the entire country, which is super low historically.

Based on my own area I know there are a lot of empty houses. Some are used as weekenders or boltholes, so are also removedfrom the avaliable housing stock. Some people don't want to rent out their houses because of potential damage and it can be to much of a hassle. I personally also wouldn't be that keen if it was a nice new house, as many people don't look after things as much as I do. I have seen a new house with chips and scrapes all over the place including chips on a glass cookshop due to not taking care. So I can see why some people don't want to be a landlord but they still want the larger capital gains from owning a property. .

Other countries have identified vacant houses are a factor, and have introduced taxes which have helped to get more people into them. But NZ has no stats, and it there is no political motivation to identify it as a problem. I have heard some property experts say that they think there are already enough houses in NZ, but that doesn't suit the narrative that we need to build far more. Plus people who own property don't want to be told how they should be using their property. Although a vacant house tax would avoid that.

But because the percentage of owner occupied houses had dropped significantly since the 1990s and the percentage of rentals has increased from 25%, up to 33%, it means there are less houses for owner occupiers to buy. It appears investors don't sell their houses as often which could explain the huge drop in numbers selling over the last 5 -10 years. Down from 60,000 houses for sale at anyone time, to about 15,000 today. Even though we have more houses in NZ than we have ever had. Although some people are staying put during covid

heavenlywild

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#2753254 1-Aug-2021 16:22

mattwnz: So they are building the house for you without any other payments apart from the 50k deposit? I haven't seen any developers offering that deal in my area. They need the buyer to enter into a building contract which also means progress payments as the house is built.

Yes, that's right. 50k and nothing more until settlement. Hence I put in another for a new build. Had to be quick as people are snapping up new listings in the new subdivision within days of listing.

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mattwnz

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#2753331 1-Aug-2021 18:35

heavenlywild:
mattwnz: So they are building the house for you without any other payments apart from the 50k deposit? I haven't seen any developers offering that deal in my area. They need the buyer to enter into a building contract which also means progress payments as the house is built.

Yes, that's right. 50k and nothing more until settlement. Hence I put in another for a new build. Had to be quick as people are snapping up new listings in the new subdivision within days of listing.

That is interesting. Can they put up their prices during to build if materials go up? I was talking to a building company recently and they said they expect prices to got up 25% in the next year due to rising material costs, and demand for work.

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heavenlywild

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#2753376 1-Aug-2021 22:21

@mattwnz, nope, fixed price.

Can't lose. A no brainer in this market.

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tdgeek

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#2753457 2-Aug-2021 07:16

Handle9:
tdgeek: The issue of we need X number of houses as we are short has been debunked.So, we are not short of houses, there are more buyers than sellers.

No it hasn't been debunked. The preponderance of evidence does not show that.

The article here showed that housing stocks had matched population growth from 1991 to 2021

quickymart

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#2753468 2-Aug-2021 08:29

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/available-housing-stock-lowest-in-14-years-asking-prices-at-all-time-high.html

but...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/08/human-rights-commission-to-launch-national-inquiry-into-housing-crisis.html

elpenguino

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#2753472 2-Aug-2021 08:34

tdgeek: The article here showed that housing stocks had matched population growth from 1991 to 2021

What that won't show you is that there's been a decrease in the number of people per dwelling.
Because of that we need more houses

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

tdgeek

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#2753476 2-Aug-2021 08:41

elpenguino:
tdgeek: The article here showed that housing stocks had matched population growth from 1991 to 2021

What that won't show you is that there's been a decrease in the number of people per dwelling.
Because of that we need more houses

Doesn't appear to have moved that much

https://www.infometrics.co.nz/people-per-household-mean-construction-trends/

mattwnz

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#2753558 2-Aug-2021 11:13

What has changed significantly is the percentage of rentals in NZ. Since the 90s it had increased from 25% to 33% of the NZ housing stock. This has meant that the percentage of owner occupied houses has decreased, and could account for the big drop in houses for sale over the last decade. More and more houses are becoming rentals and more and more people are being locked out of buying due to the insane house inflation. The rising interest rates will make it even harder.

tdgeek

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#2753565 2-Aug-2021 11:22

mattwnz:

What has changed significantly is the percentage of rentals in NZ. Since the 90s it had increased from 25% to 33% of the NZ housing stock. This has meant that the percentage of owner occupied houses has decreased, and could account for the big drop in houses for sale over the last decade. More and more houses are becoming rentals and more and more people are being locked out of buying due to the insane house inflation. The rising interest rates will make it even harder.

Maybe. More and more houses are becoming rentals or more and more people are renting? That could be choice. Prior to this housing crisis it still took good saving to get a deposit together so both work and have kids later, so rent for longer. Kiwisaver has assisted that, but houses cost more now. I knew a few that wanted the freedom of renting. Im not sure that 25 to 33% would account for the lack of sellers right now. If I was selling it will take longer as I would want to buy first, takes a while as not happy about the prices!, a delay. If I was downgrading in size or location, I may wait for more house price inflation. But whatever the reason is there are less sellers than there should be

elpenguino

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#2753889 2-Aug-2021 17:10

tdgeek:

elpenguino:

What that won't show you is that there's been a decrease in the number of people per dwelling.
Because of that we need more houses

Doesn't appear to have moved that much

https://www.infometrics.co.nz/people-per-household-mean-construction-trends/

Doesn't have to move much.

0.1 people fewer per household, 100,000 households = 1,539 more houses needed

I don't know how many households there are in NZ but, you get the picture.

Good graph though. There's a noticeable upward inflection in Auckland over the last 5 years.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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