2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | ... | 2429

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435849 10-Mar-2020 17:45

vexxxboy:

that would be everyone that has a sore throat or coughed a couple of times in the last week or so

Thats what Id like to know, as per my recent post. I assume it was mainly incoming travellers, or was it many cautious people, while many incoming travellers couldn't be bothered? It is voluntary after all, and many infected countries aren't part of the "ask them to self isolate" request.

FineWine

3115 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2447

Trusted

Nurse (R)

Lifetime subscriber

#2435855 10-Mar-2020 18:00

All this talk about isolation, hand sanitiser, sharp & large drops in the stocks and toilet paper, got me thinking. I know scary ha.😱

But the only people/companies that are going to do well out of this are hand sanitiser & toilet paper manufactures. BUT the biggest winners will be all those, around the globe, streaming video companies with pay to view. Plus all those vintners🍷post the crisis as people restock their wine cellars 😀

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Geektastic

18010 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8470

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435888 10-Mar-2020 18:24

FineWine:

All this talk about isolation, hand sanitiser, sharp & large drops in the stocks and toilet paper, got me thinking. I know scary ha.😱

But the only people/companies that are going to do well out of this are hand sanitiser & toilet paper manufactures. BUT the biggest winners will be all those, around the globe, streaming video companies with pay to view. Plus all those vintners🍷post the crisis as people restock their wine cellars 😀

The biggest winners will be the people with large cash reserves.

Stock market crashes make millionaires richer.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435895 10-Mar-2020 18:44

Geektastic:

FineWine:

All this talk about isolation, hand sanitiser, sharp & large drops in the stocks and toilet paper, got me thinking. I know scary ha.😱

But the only people/companies that are going to do well out of this are hand sanitiser & toilet paper manufactures. BUT the biggest winners will be all those, around the globe, streaming video companies with pay to view. Plus all those vintners🍷post the crisis as people restock their wine cellars 😀

The biggest winners will be the people with large cash reserves.

Stock market crashes make millionaires richer.

And so it came to pass that the rich (who don't die) get richer.

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435904 10-Mar-2020 19:02

Batman:

And so it came to pass that the rich (who don't die) get richer.

Not really, but that will happen. If you remain employed, you can enjoy frequent sales as stores try to turn stock over or clear excess stock to help cashflow. The new unemployed, and the many cautious people reduce buying. Nest egg, etc. You can grab the deals that accrue from that

robocat

114 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 62

#2435919 10-Mar-2020 19:34

Covid-19 is not one disease

The above means NZ cannot say that we will have the same outcomes as country Y.

Prepare for it like you are in Italy - their health services are overwhelmed - https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/ or https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538 (both are anecdotal, but they seem credible).

Germany’s 0 deaths might be due to a different strain, or it may be that it has been incubating there for less time and/or the health systems haven’t been overwhelmed yet.

Any information from China is highly suspicious - many reasons to doubt their “truth” e.g. industry is not returning to normal? : https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim and https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-04/lights-are-on-but-no-ones-working-how-local-governments-are-faking-coronavirus-recovery-101524058.html (use reader view).

The US is a joke (their tests were buggered, and partisan politics are trumping practicalities).

So far the countries with the best responses have been South Korea (so damn organised) and Taiwan (they restricted entry from China on 1st Jan, and had epidemic plans and resources in place that seem to be working, and are reworking industry to help).

Go on, panic buy. Why wouldn’t you want to be ahead of the herd? Is everyone better off if the just-in-time starts speeding up before we are forced to start to lockdown? So long as you are generous and not hoarding. Medicine will be in short supply: generic resupply from India is already unavailable: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51731719

Personally I am *very* disturbed by the response by our government. No, it’s not just like seasonal flu. I have parents at high risk: I don’t want them catching this.

Good luck and skills to all.

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

Tinkerisk

4800 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3660

#2435987 10-Mar-2020 20:10

robocat:

Germany’s 0 deaths might be due to a different strain, or it may be that it has been incubating there for less time and/or the health systems haven’t been overwhelmed yet.

It's 2 fatalities since yesterday and (currently very critical) more to be expected for today or tomorrow (unpublished). So it seems we enter the hot phase now.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

jonathan18

7415 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2850

ID Verified

Trusted

#2435988 10-Mar-2020 20:10

robocat:

Personally I am *very* disturbed by the response by our government. No, it’s not just like seasonal flu. I have parents at high risk: I don’t want them catching this.

Who in any position of authority within NZ, and should be taken seriously, has said that it's 'just like seasonal flu'? Do you really think the government response has been the same as if it were the same as seasonal flu?

I'm not trying to be an apologist for the government on this - nor argue that the response has been good enough - but hyperbole like this isn't helpful.

It would, however, be a fairly accurate portrayal of many armchair experts in the media who have been trotting out this line and others questionable claims of a similar ilk (eg, it's all just overblown hysteria) for weeks. I've heard the same from people at work, who clearly have bought this line; luckily it does appear to be a claim on the wain.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

#2435990 10-Mar-2020 20:15

robocat:

The above means NZ cannot say that we will have the same outcomes as country Y.

WRT the "two strains" (L&S), I understand the paper presenting the hypothesis that was made public "pre-publication" failed peer review.

I believe that for now you have to deal with it on the basis that the virus virulence and transmissibility stays the same, but differences in availability of healthcare, identification and response, timescale, social behaviour in the community, age demographics etc etc explain the differences in case fatality rates etc - not some mutation in the virus.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435997 10-Mar-2020 20:29

robocat:

interesting!

neb

11294 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2435998 10-Mar-2020 20:35

China does seem to be returning back to normal, I ordered a few electronic odds and ends expecting them no time soon and one is already in the country after a week or so. That's better than before the coronavirus when it'd typically take a month for stuff to arrive.

HP

Shop now for HP laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

robocat

114 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 62

#2436013 10-Mar-2020 21:21

Fred99:

robocat:

The above means NZ cannot say that we will have the same outcomes as country Y.

WRT the "two strains" (L&S)

I never said anything about 2 strains: the image shows that the virus is mutating and that there are wayyyyy more than two strains (even though they have used two colours). Different strains could easily have different effects - all I am saying is we *don’t* know the differences.

Interestingly, for the Spanish Flu, American Samoa was flu free for 2 years, and then had zero deaths when it arrived... one theory was that the Spanish Flu had mutated and the strain they got was less deadly.

jonathan18

7415 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2850

ID Verified

Trusted

#2436064 10-Mar-2020 22:19

jonathan18:

robocat:

Personally I am *very* disturbed by the response by our government. No, it’s not just like seasonal flu. I have parents at high risk: I don’t want them catching this.

Who in any position of authority within NZ, and should be taken seriously, has said that it's 'just like seasonal flu'? Do you really think the government response has been the same as if it were the same as seasonal flu?

And here’s a leader of a country who actually is peddling this sh!t:

He also continued to express “nothing to see here” views out of step with the public mood. “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu,” he wrote. “It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/donald-trump-coronavirus-response

Given his own age and state of health, there’s always the chance of him being taken down by this virus. And if it doesn’t get him at a personal level, there’s surely a good chance that the astounding incompetence that will result in many Americans dying will be one step too far, even for him.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2436071 10-Mar-2020 22:45

jonathan18:

Given his own age and state of health, there’s always the chance of him being taken down by this virus. And if it doesn’t get him at a personal level, there’s surely a good chance that the astounding incompetence that will result in many Americans dying will be one step too far, even for him.

nothing is too far for him

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

#2436077 10-Mar-2020 23:07

robocat:

I never said anything about 2 strains: the image shows that the virus is mutating and that there are wayyyyy more than two strains (even though they have used two colours). Different strains could easily have different effects - all I am saying is we *don’t* know the differences.

Interestingly, for the Spanish Flu, American Samoa was flu free for 2 years, and then had zero deaths when it arrived... one theory was that the Spanish Flu had mutated and the strain they got was less deadly.

The image graphic you posted focused on the claimed two haplotypes - "L" and "S". What I'm saying is that the pre-publication paper that presented a hypothesis about that - with some very dodgy (IMO) evidence that there's a difference in the disease attributable to the difference in the named genotypes was, I believe rejected in peer review. I am not an expert, but read the paper and it really tripped my BS meter.

It's a very real problem right now that many "pre-publication" papers need to be released ASAP in case something really important is held up, but then the media gets hold of something "interesting" and seizes something that eventually doesn't pass academic scrutiny, and that goes "viral". You seldom get to hear about the retractions.

IIRC, the Chinese had already analysed several (5?) genotypes, and uploaded that data into the public domain - before most of us had even heard of "the Wuhan flu" or whatever it was called then. These genotypes do not equate to phenotypes. Like our own DNA, much of it is "junk" DNA that makes no difference at all. Much or our DNA probably came from viruses in the deep past, assimilated into our code, useless (but harmless) waste of data bits.

I don't know anything about American Samoa / Spanish Flu details. But, Spanish Flu was Influenza A H1N1 - and it very clearly eventually "disappeared" as a " horrific plague pandemic " - but remains since as "seasonal flu" - because as far as we know, that's where seasonal flu (still H1N1) started, it's all descended from that pandemic. So if American Samoa escaped, there's a good lesson there, maybe.

Influenza A has an advantage over SARS CoV-2 in mutation/evolution. The RNA is segmented, the "proven viable" RNA segments from different strains can recombine (from a mess of viral/host RNA in a cell infected with separate strains) to form viable infectious progeny with new characteristics. It *should* evolve to become more contagious but probably less virulent relatively quickly. It also might not - hence the strong reaction when there's a novel Influenza strain (ie H1N1/09). Mainly "cry wolf" since 1918, apart from millions who died, but who knows?

OTOH SARS CoV-2 presents a really serious issue. It was already plenty contagious - when humans acquired it - to cause a pandemic, there's *no "reason" it needs to mutate to become less virulent. The chance of a viable progeny from mutation is lower. It has no "reason" to become less virulent. By chance it might - but it is not the flu.

*The only reason I can think of is that it would make sense (if a virus could think) to become infectious to a wider range of hosts. If at the moment it's not infecting many young people, then any strains that do infect young people for some reason would have a distinct advantage over strains that infect mainly old people, so "young person" Covid-19 could be a consequence.

1 | ... | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | ... | 2429