2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2759226 12-Aug-2021 18:44

wellygary:

DS248:

Canberra to enter 7-day lockdown from 5:00pm today following one new case of C19, the first there in 105 days.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/canberra-records-new-case-of-covid-19-sending-act-into-lockdown/100370616

This is a pretty good guide to what is likely to happen in NZ,

It will likely have come across the border from NSW.. but this case is probably 2 or 3 in the transmission chain ( if they are lucky)

Thats a good move. 1 case, is probably a number of cases that are not tested yet. If it wasn't, too bad, it was the right move. NSW = doesn't work

tdgeek

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#2759228 12-Aug-2021 18:49

Batman: We're on CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/new-zealand-covid-19-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

I feel this is the key

But uncompromising boarder controls have also left the Pacific island nation comparatively isolated and cut off from the rest of the world, something Ardern appeared to acknowledge Thursday.

It worked. Our economy is IIRC near pre covid. Unemployment at a low. So isolated and cut off is a bit of a misnomer. Residents can return home, we have Delta here. Are we cut off? Well I guess Americans can travel the globe can they? We can't. Does that matter at the moment??

Benoire

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#2759231 12-Aug-2021 18:53

Any mention of kids yet? Its all well starting to open the borders but there are over 800,000 (2016 data and was about 900+ up to 14y old so went back a bit) children under 12 that cannot yet be vaccinated. Delta variant appears to be good at getting to kids from the link above... sure they'll get the vaccine eventually (5+) but we either sacrifice the kids and hope it doesn't get to the schools while the vaccines are approved or we close until they are vaccinated... what about below 5y olds... as anyone knows day cares/kindy are terrible for spreading bugs.

tdgeek

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#2759236 12-Aug-2021 19:10

Benoire:

Any mention of kids yet? Its all well starting to open the borders but there are over 800,000 (2016 data and was about 900+ up to 14y old so went back a bit) children under 12 that cannot yet be vaccinated. Delta variant appears to be good at getting to kids from the link above... sure they'll get the vaccine eventually (5+) but we either sacrifice the kids and hope it doesn't get to the schools while the vaccines are approved or we close until they are vaccinated... what about below 5y olds... as anyone knows day cares/kindy are terrible for spreading bugs.

Dr Ashley was asked that. He said "watch this space" Expanded that trials are on for 6 months and older its about safety. Watch this space.

What I read into this as its well and good that Covid Alpha hardly touches kids and teens and younger adults, but Delta does. This is one hell of a moving target. Kindy, school are a huge risk of Delta spread (and harm) Lots to play out yet, but they are already talking about booster shots, so in an ideal world, booster shots, YOUNG kids get vaccinated like MMR, and thats a huge swathe of protection against illness and transmission

Handle9

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#2759289 12-Aug-2021 19:20

Benoire:
Any mention of kids yet? Its all well starting to open the borders but there are over 800,000 (2016 data and was about 900+ up to 14y old so went back a bit) children under 12 that cannot yet be vaccinated. Delta variant appears to be good at getting to kids from the link above... sure they'll get the vaccine eventually (5+) but we either sacrifice the kids and hope it doesn't get to the schools while the vaccines are approved or we close until they are vaccinated... what about below 5y olds... as anyone knows day cares/kindy are terrible for spreading bugs.

Pfizer trials are dues to finish in September/October.

Compared to adults the impact of covid on kids is relatively minor so there's a reasonable question about the ethics of vaccinations for young children.

Oblivian

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#2759314 12-Aug-2021 19:41

And children won't be a border problem as I would expect the requirement will be that you have to be vaccinated. that will put any travelling families out straight away, so although they may remain poss spreaders or a risk - it will be in their own countries where it can be controlled

Benoire

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#2759317 12-Aug-2021 19:49

tdgeek:

Dr Ashley was asked that. He said "watch this space" Expanded that trials are on for 6 months and older its about safety. Watch this space.

What I read into this as its well and good that Covid Alpha hardly touches kids and teens and younger adults, but Delta does. This is one hell of a moving target. Kindy, school are a huge risk of Delta spread (and harm) Lots to play out yet, but they are already talking about booster shots, so in an ideal world, booster shots, YOUNG kids get vaccinated like MMR, and thats a huge swathe of protection against illness and transmission

I'm expecting that it will be available like MMR once they get the rates correct but I'm curious to know how long that will take and what our response will be.. We're already seeing a bunch of sport stars talk about long covid and the effect on their bodies and I guess the protection of my two young kids gets me condsidering how they will be affected long term should they catch the virus and the long term affects on the many children so far.

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tdgeek

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#2759350 12-Aug-2021 21:02

Benoire:

I'm expecting that it will be available like MMR once they get the rates correct but I'm curious to know how long that will take and what our response will be.. We're already seeing a bunch of sport stars talk about long covid and the effect on their bodies and I guess the protection of my two young kids gets me condsidering how they will be affected long term should they catch the virus and the long term affects on the many children so far.

Yep, the knowledge is evolving, and we are lucky to be in a safe place, time to spare, so that when all this kids stuff gets sorted, we will hopefully be pretty clear, maybe not 100% clear here. Canberra did well to go to a lockdown with just one case. We will do that too if/when needed. In the meantime, kids are safe. We may be able to put kids plans in place before forced to.

mattwnz

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#2759351 12-Aug-2021 21:06

With all this covid and lockdown talk, anyone else get the feeling we could be heading into a lockdown very soon?

Oblivian

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#2759355 12-Aug-2021 21:10

No

But if you're not scared of one. You're basically in the denier/complacency camp.

Dratsab

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#2759365 12-Aug-2021 21:15

Oblivian: No

But if you're not scared of one. You're basically in the denier/complacency camp.

I'm certainly not in that camp and am not scared of another lockdown. I actually quite enjoyed the last one. Got to spend a load of time with my family and when I went to work (essential worker) there was virtually no traffic. Bliss.

Oblivian

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#2759367 12-Aug-2021 21:19

Likewise. Introverts dream

But to think recent warnings are some bad omen or conspiracy meaning we're due one is kinda bonkers.

Scott3

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#2759368 12-Aug-2021 21:19

People were talking about how the move to a longer dose spacing would be "spun".

It was spun that the move to 6 weeks was about prioritising first doses - essentially by having greater dose spacing a bunch of fairly soon appointment slots are freed up for people to book their first dose's. Which allowed the government to bring forward the dates that bookings open for each age group. (A clear win politically).

They avoided commenting on increased effectiveness, instead saying that data showed it was "still effective" at a 6 week spacing.

Also noted the new 6 weeks is just the default in the booking system. People can over-ride to whatever they want (3 weeks+). And they are not moving existing 2nd dose appointments.

morrisk:

This is what I was recommended as well. Honestly I'm not sure if me and my fiancée should or should not. I'm more of the opinion of I want to get it over and done with and protect ourselves against others. If there's more protection by delaying it doesn't this also carry the risk of not getting supply when people go for the second shot? Doesn't this also cause more hesitation because people are looking at stats of our vaccination uptake?

I am probably thinking about this too hard and worrying too much but I really just want to get my second shot in the 3 weeks I originally set and just leave it at that.

I wouldn't be too concerned about supply. Pfizer have been (+/- a couple of days) pritty much rock solid with their deliveries so far, and current delivery rate (350k a week) far exceeds current dose rate (260k a week). And we have 200,000+ doses in stock in central freezers (plus whatever is in vaccination center fridges). NZ has been pretty good at honoring appointments too.

I wouldn't be too worried about protection between doses either. Government has made it pretty clear they will use a Level 4 lockdown to stop transmission if we have even a single (unlinked) delta case here. Odds of an individual getting infected is incredibly low, and the first dose does provide some protection against hospitalisation etc.

I had my second dose at (nearly) four weeks, if i did it again, I would stretch it out to 8.

As a counterpoint, 3 weeks is what Pfizer did their trials on, so if you stick with that you will be getting the vaccine exactly as trialed. And it appears very likely we will be getting boosters in 2022 for when the protection starts to taper off.

And trying to optimize level or protection, is perhaps overkill. It seems that 3 weeks is extremely effective at what really matters at an individual level, preventing hospitalization and death...

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#2759421 12-Aug-2021 21:30

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

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#2759424 12-Aug-2021 21:49

Batman:

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

Nah. They are just saying that they want as many people as possible vaccinated.

Before the delta strain, when it was looking viable to have herd immunity, getting to the percentage to give herd immunity was critical. But with delta we have no chance with the current vaccine...

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