2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2765338 23-Aug-2021 12:00

sbiddle:

Our 12+ population is just on 4.4m so we'd need 8.8m doses for 100% coverage of the eligible population. The MoH vaccine xls page still shows a figure of just over 4m because it hasn't been updated from the 16+ guidance.(4.09m people aged 16+).

Does anybody know what wastage is? I thought I heard an estimated 2-3% a few months ago. And more importantly is 10m based of 5 or 6 vaccines per vial?

Many people have taken snippits of the Oxford study (and other studies) about decreasing antibodies and through a lack of understanding assume that this is really bad, and that the vaccines are becoming ineffective, which is simply not true.

Every vaccination delivers neutalising antibodies which weaken over time, and that's how they're supposed to work. We still have B and T cell protection that stays in place and is probably the most important part of a vaccine long term.

What we do know is that for some at risk people the body's response in creating neutralising antibodies, and subsequently B cell and T cell responses, does differ. For those people a 3rd shot may deliver a significant boost in protection.

Pretty sure they have always quoted doses - never vials, so assume its a consistent amount per vial ( doesn't actually matter how many )

Would be interested to see the wastage stat as well

Any chance if we ping a journalist on twitter they can lob the question in with thier "I have some questions of behalf of colleagues" segment lol

Clint

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#2765339 23-Aug-2021 12:02

Batman: Wife went to pharmacy who got the first time was open for vax today. Done in literally 30s. Now waiting for the 20min.

They could have done this for the last x months.

Its only after the week ended 11th July that we have had abundant vaccine. It was really touch and go if we ran out or not on the 4th July.

But yes, we could have put more effort on getting every willing pharmacy & GP clinic on board after the big shipments started landing in early July.

That said, having 700k odd doses in the freezers (some thinks to an eairlier than expected shipment), means we can likely keep ramping up, and have the peak of our vaccine program at something like 450,000 or 500,000 doses a week. We will quickly hit the point were people to be vaccinated are harder to find, so won't need to sustain that rate for more than a few weeks.

tdgeek:

Yes, could have. Vaccinate at pace for 10% of the week and wait for supplies the rest of the time. As it was they used their supplies as they got them, so made no difference

Little point really in pouring 10x the required resources into the vaccination plan.

But I do think we should have tracked out vaccination rate to match supply. In the early days of the program. Having hundreds of thousands of doses in the freezer when we had yet to vaccinate medical workers, police officers etc wasn't a great outcome.

tdgeek

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#2765341 23-Aug-2021 12:07

Batman:

NSW can't eliminate, Victoria can't https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-australia-victoria-reports-71-new-community-cases-highest-daily-total-since-september/BMPRVY5NNKRNH3LEAVEBDOBY44/

QLD trying https://www.9news.com.au/national/queensland-covid19-update-august-22-no-new-cases-as-thousands-head-to-border/2f640167-f3e9-4315-99cf-4ce76948c923

NZ ... ? 1 more hr to 1pm

Victoria

"Concerningly, only 12 of the 65 cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period."

Maybe look at a lockdown perhaps? I heard they work well

Buster

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#2765342 23-Aug-2021 12:08

sbiddle:

Does anybody know what wastage is? I thought I heard an estimated 2-3% a few months ago. And more importantly is 10m based of 5 or 6 vaccines per vial?

Without really knowing I would definately say we contracted to buy 10 million doses at five doses per vial.

From very early on we have been getting 6 doses per vial so that's 20% extra shots right there (potentially ~12,000,000 doses).

tdgeek

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#2765343 23-Aug-2021 12:08

Scott3:

Little point really in pouring 10x the required resources into the vaccination plan.

But I do think we should have tracked out vaccination rate to match supply. In the early days of the program. Having hundreds of thousands of doses in the freezer when we had yet to vaccinate medical workers, police officers etc wasn't a great outcome.

Yes, that was my point to Batman, and agree on the latter

Batman

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#2765344 23-Aug-2021 12:10

tdgeek:

Victoria

"Concerningly, only 12 of the 65 cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period."

Maybe look at a lockdown perhaps? I heard they work well

i thought they were in lockdown for a month now

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#2765345 23-Aug-2021 12:12

Remember how last year there was helplines and lots of to-and-fro of who can and cannot open. And most of us are running from that list in our heads still.

The towels been thrown in there too..

"You do not need to apply to operate with MBIE or MPI during Alert Level 4. It is up to you to check if you business meets the criteria of an Alert Level 4 business or service."

There are greengrocers all down Marshland (chc) and semi rurals allowing customers. Raeward Fresh is open (foodstuffs - presumably under the guise of a 'supermarket' though its more a greengrocer and butcher which is excluded) just not their cafe.

Explains why NPD etc are doing fast food and pies/coffees suddenly.. Theres no do/don'ts. But self management. If this was more rife it'd be NSW all over.

May as well be 3.5 minus takeaways

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#2765347 23-Aug-2021 12:13

Batman:

i thought they were in lockdown for a month now

I should have added the /S but I thought it was quite obvious.

Buster

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#2765349 23-Aug-2021 12:14

tdgeek:

Victoria

"Concerningly, only 12 of the 65 cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period."

Maybe look at a lockdown perhaps? I heard they work well

Pretty sure Victoria went in to State wide lockdown 1:00pm yesterday.

Time flies. It was Saturday.

Scott3

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#2765351 23-Aug-2021 12:16

clinty:

sbiddle:

Our 12+ population is just on 4.4m so we'd need 8.8m doses for 100% coverage of the eligible population. The MoH vaccine xls page still shows a figure of just over 4m because it hasn't been updated from the 16+ guidance.(4.09m people aged 16+).

Does anybody know what wastage is? I thought I heard an estimated 2-3% a few months ago. And more importantly is 10m based of 5 or 6 vaccines per vial?

Many people have taken snippits of the Oxford study (and other studies) about decreasing antibodies and through a lack of understanding assume that this is really bad, and that the vaccines are becoming ineffective, which is simply not true.

Every vaccination delivers neutalising antibodies which weaken over time, and that's how they're supposed to work. We still have B and T cell protection that stays in place and is probably the most important part of a vaccine long term.

What we do know is that for some at risk people the body's response in creating neutralising antibodies, and subsequently B cell and T cell responses, does differ. For those people a 3rd shot may deliver a significant boost in protection.

Pretty sure they have always quoted doses - never vials, so assume its a consistent amount per vial ( doesn't actually matter how many )

Would be interested to see the wastage stat as well

Any chance if we ping a journalist on twitter they can lob the question in with thier "I have some questions of behalf of colleagues" segment lol

Clint

Usage rate is cited here as 99.5%

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

Unclear exactly how that is calculated. Is a situation where a vial only yields 5 doses rather than 6 counted as a waste dose? of only if doses need to be discarded for some reason.

If a vial yeilds 7 doses, is this allowed to offset a poorer yielding vial?

Also I think some degree of wastage was allowed for in our order.

Regarding spare doses, if we assume that by the end of the year the approvals for kids 6mo + come through, I still think we will be doing brilliantly well if we get 80% of the total population done, so we will have cira 2m doses left over.

Seems the vaccine provides decent protection for at least 6-8 months. Given we have only fully vaccinated 1m people now, even with boosting all those people, will still have 1m doses spare, when we get to Late feb 2022 (for 6 months boosting), or late april 2020 for 8mo boosting.

One of the advantages of lagging the OECD with vaccination is that our vaccines are relatively fresher, so there is less of a hurry to boost. Hopefully by the time we need to, the updated detla specific booster will be available.

Also a possibility that we could boost / re-vaccinate with novovax, that we have allready on order. Only vaccine in eairly stage trials to stop the virus growing in primates noses, so could be the best at preventing transmission of covid-19. Pending more data of course.

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#2765356 23-Aug-2021 12:21

Just delivered to a friend's mailbox up the coast in Raumati.

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#2765358 23-Aug-2021 12:24

Re the Jabs and how many will likely actually get it..

I was finding stats to shoot someone down in flames that pulled the "the flu kills 500-600 kiwis a year why are we hearing about how bad Covid is with 29 deaths and not that" line..

Pointed out the 2020 season had ~1.4m-1.7 doses of flu ordered and available. And not all of that went in arms. That's not great coverage for something people consider a high mortality rate bringer. Over time you can see the increase in the historic mortalities start after about 2002. When everyone started to have Dr Google in their hand and the last pandemic was out.

So not sure how we are going to fare in reality.

KellyP

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#2765359 23-Aug-2021 12:25

gehenna:

Just delivered to a friend's mailbox up the coast in Raumati.

I received two of these earlier in the year. They went straight to the firestarting box for the winter.

Oblivian

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#2765360 23-Aug-2021 12:27

gehenna:

Just delivered to a friend's mailbox up the coast in Raumati.

That's the same chumps that did the last push in wellington masked as official propoganda. Annoy teenagers at schools and are confronting them lining up for the jabs now!

KellyP

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#2765361 23-Aug-2021 12:27

Hold on...was this delivered during Lockdown?

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