2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2768222 29-Aug-2021 00:22

sbiddle:
Scott3:

I am extremely hopeful that level 4 gets the job done, we only need to look at NSW too see what failure looks like, and it isn't pretty...

What happens if it doesn't? I hope they do to, but if we don't see a drop that is going to be a great concern for all of us.

When you talk failure it's not just NSW - Victoria too have failed to eliminate Delta off a similar number of cases.

Case numbers over the next few days are going to be very interesting. If they rise there are going to have to be very tough questions asked of everybody who stood on the lectern at 1pm and told us so confidently that they would have peaked by now.

I think numbers should have started to flatten or drop by now, according to experts at the 1pm last week.

The fact case numbers have not dropped and since increased is concerning.

The question is, are any of them (Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield) gusty enough to admit defeat and change tact? I suspect not.

I'm hoping we don't get to that but I don't have a good feeling vs Delta.

mattwnz

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#2768234 29-Aug-2021 00:49

heavenlywild:
sbiddle:

What happens if it doesn't? I hope they do to, but if we don't see a drop that is going to be a great concern for all of us.

When you talk failure it's not just NSW - Victoria too have failed to eliminate Delta off a similar number of cases.

Case numbers over the next few days are going to be very interesting. If they rise there are going to have to be very tough questions asked of everybody who stood on the lectern at 1pm and told us so confidently that they would have peaked by now.

I think numbers should have started to flatten or drop by now, according to experts at the 1pm last week.

The fact case numbers have not dropped and since increased is concerning.

The question is, are any of them (Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield) gusty enough to admit defeat and change tact? I suspect not.

I'm hoping we don't get to that but I don't have a good feeling vs Delta.

It is far too early, we aren' t even 1 incubation cycle in yet. I think it is still trending similar to last time, and it is not dramatically rising either. However there is a huge difference this time, part from it being Delta. That is last time prior to the big lockdown last year, we already had put in restrictions on things such as gathering sizes etc . Whereas this time it was spreading and NZ was out partying like there was no covid risk, and no size limit on gatherings, and we have had a superspreader event, which is where much of the problem seems to be. Hence why there are so many contacts and the tracing system seems to be overwhelmed. But lockdown can always eliminate it, it just takes time and people can't flout. There are however a lot more flouters this time. Just look at all the people caught mountain biking in one area. Some people are treating the lockdown as a holiday. I think Auckland could be in level 4 for quite some time. But there is no alternative, as we don't have the health system to cope with living with it, nor the vaccinations available to vaccinate everyone very quickly weeks. I do think we have made a major mistake by not speeding up vaccinations and securing them earlier. I understand Canada paid an extra 40 million to get vaccinations earlier, which is just a drop in the bucket in terms of economic costs.

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#2768235 29-Aug-2021 00:55

Scott3:

I'm not keen on spending the next three months at at level 3/4, but at least that option would provide a route to re-opening to the world...

The major thing stopping this apart from our low vaccination numbers, is our health system. We won't be able to cope with the load the virus puts on it. NZ has the lowest ICU capacity in the OECD after Mexico. Australias ICU capacity is double NZs per capcita, so they can cope better.

I don't think there is a single country that NZ can use as a good example ATM, of how we can live with the virus with high vaccination levels, without quite a lot of death, long covid, and possibly needing periodic lockdowns or restrcitions to slow down transmission. I can't see how the UK can't go into another lockdown or restrictions in the next few months based on their growing death rates. Even though they have a high vaccination rate. Hopefully a better vaccine comes along, or the virus burns itself out, and it becomes less lethal. But I think we need everyone vaccinated, because it will be those that have chosen not to which will be the problem.

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#2768238 29-Aug-2021 06:30

mattwnz: I understand Canada paid an extra 40 million to get vaccinations earlier, which is just a drop in the bucket in terms of economic costs.

We've handed out 480 million dollars in 2 weeks of lockdown and probably lost billions more in productivity

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#2768240 29-Aug-2021 06:54

Something about us trying to keep vaccinations going

It seems to think we are going to get all our pfizers in oct

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-borrowing-vaccines-moving-away-from-pfizer-on-table-in-government-jabs-plan/JMBJ4GJ5DAISV2M7KBWRHFZYXE/

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#2768241 29-Aug-2021 06:59

You want to have taken your morning coffee with a healthy dose of hope and beg for forgiveness for laughing at at NSW before reading this

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126190729/covid19-cases-among-essential-workers-could-spell-end-of-elimination-strategy

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#2768246 29-Aug-2021 07:57

Scott3:

55% of cases detected since lockdown were infectious in the community

I don't quite get this. About half the cases are the Samoan Church festival, which is a pre lockdown event. 70% of the cases now are linked to that, and I imagine most of those caught it at home in lockdown, so how is that infectious in the community, which infers, not helped by lockdown?

That seems plain inaccurate. Based on that I could say that all 429 cases are CT so the lockdown is having no effect at all...

tdgeek

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#2768247 29-Aug-2021 08:01

heavenlywild:

I think numbers should have started to flatten or drop by now, according to experts at the 1pm last week.

The fact case numbers have not dropped and since increased is concerning.

The question is, are any of them (Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield) gusty enough to admit defeat and change tact? I suspect not.

I'm hoping we don't get to that but I don't have a good feeling vs Delta.

I can't tell if they have dropped or are increasing with lockdown. The purpose of lockdown is to stop spread. It doesn't matter if 1 person in a house infected the other 3, as its not spreading in the community, that is the purpose of lockdown, but we arent given that information.

Fred99

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#2768249 29-Aug-2021 08:02

Batman: You want to have taken your morning coffee with a healthy dose of hope and beg for forgiveness for laughing at at NSW before reading this

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126190729/covid19-cases-among-essential-workers-could-spell-end-of-elimination-strategy

I thought it was hilarious. Unfortunately some people believe what they read.

Two journalists write opinion piece and start their article with the word "ANALYSIS" in capital letters and bold, misrepresenting themselves as authorities in something they're not.

Then cherry pick comments from actual real experts to fabricate a story that's intended to give the impression that the Auckland outbreak is just like the Sydney outbreak.

They cite something Doherty Institute stated via twitter: "With optimal public health measures [and no lockdowns], this can be significantly reduced to 2737 infections and 13 deaths". This is for all of Australia, for 6 months.

The "optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns)" is elsewhere in the report qualified as requiring optimal test and trace, case isolation and quarantine. "We could reduce the road toll to 13 deaths over 6 months if we speed-limited all cars to 5km/h".

IOW they (Doherty) publish a headline from a snippet of a report - which presents a completely completely impossible goal.

It absolutely reeks of heavy political interference when Doherty's "media department" comes up with crap like that.

TeaLeaf

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#2768250 29-Aug-2021 08:08

I personally think Jacinda has f..d up yet again with the Vaccine roll out. Im using her name as she always wants the praise when she does something right. In reality she has likely little to do with it. But that is the role of being PM, taking ownership for everything.

Anyway, it is absurd them relying on "Patients must be registered" to roll out the vaccine. eg there isnt an option between Albany and Whangarei outside the medical clinics where patients must be enrolled.

Accessing the vaccines has been a total shambles for many.

Why are they not focussing on getting this obvious cluster in Auckland vaccinated? It feels like the SI is never affected, not to the same extent Auckland has been, which makes sense given half the country is in one city.

As for them messing up the Pfizer orders, personally Im not accepting another vaccine. I was trying to access it long before the outbreak when a large percentage of NZ was (and a lot still) not interested in getting the vaccine, So Im not going to accept a possibly less effective Vaccine. Recall some of that stock that people are not bothering/rushing to access and allocate it to Auckland.

Its totally outrageous to have people who are in much less risk areas getting Pfizer and because they didnt plan the vaccne roll out correctly, they expect people in Auckland to receive one of the other vaccines.

How many Pfizer vaccine doses did NZ receive up to this point?

I know some of what I said might be a little off key, but it has been totally bizarre how they handled both the Delta outbreak in Auckland and the vaccinations and their accessibility.

Fred99

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#2768253 29-Aug-2021 08:26

TeaLeaf: I know some of what I said might be a little off key

It's not "off key". It's a festering pile of politically-biased abject horse sh*t that doesn't belong in this thread.

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tdgeek

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#2768254 29-Aug-2021 08:27

Batman: You want to have taken your morning coffee with a healthy dose of hope and beg for forgiveness for laughing at at NSW before reading this

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126190729/covid19-cases-among-essential-workers-could-spell-end-of-elimination-strategy

In New South Wales, the state with the worst outbreak in Australia, a lot of Delta cases spread through essential workers working in supply chains. If this is silently happening in New Zealand, the very thing that enables level 4 lockdown – the free flow of supplies to keep household fed and well – could be spreading the virus.

That's rubbish. If it was happening here, cases would sporadically occur across NZ. The issue in NSW is solely the looseness of the lockdown, it was never anywhere near L3 here.

“We are still in the midst of a classic Delta outbreak, [one which is] unfolding faster than in Australian states,” he said.

No idea how they conclude that, we have a proper lockdown, no regional spread, and 70% of the cases are from one legitimate pre lockdown event. IIRC each day in NSW there were about 40% of the cases while infectious in the community. My conclusion for NZ based on the almost zero valid data that we get fed, is that most cases are infecting inside a locked down home. Take the Samoan community. I expect they have larger families and homes with inter generational family members, so you would expect a LOT of in home self isolated cases, and thus, they represent 70% of all cases that we have had to date. Unfortunate, unlucky, but fully explainable. Its not within a bulls roar of NSW and its Alert Level 2.5

tdgeek

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#2768255 29-Aug-2021 08:31

Fred99:

TeaLeaf: I know some of what I said might be a little off key

It's not "off key". It's a festering pile of politically-biased abject horse sh*t that doesn't belong in this thread.

Unfortunately its not just in this thread, its public, and Im sure many lay people will be feeling that they may as well give up. Less morale, less compliance, its hard for people to function at the required level when their brain has been fed that they are wasting their time.

tdgeek

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#2768257 29-Aug-2021 08:39

Newshub Live

6:30am - Health expert Des Gorman is reassuring the public as COVID-19 infections rise.

Dr Gorman, a medical professor from the University of Auckland, told Newshub a spike is exactly what's expected.

"The numbers will go up and people shouldn't be alarmed by that, because if there's an infected person then they're going to infect everyone in their household - that one infected person will infect five others so we were always going to see an uptick in cases."

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#2768262 29-Aug-2021 09:19

Batman: Something about us trying to keep vaccinations going

It seems to think we are going to get all our pfizers in oct

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-borrowing-vaccines-moving-away-from-pfizer-on-table-in-government-jabs-plan/JMBJ4GJ5DAISV2M7KBWRHFZYXE/

Then the question must be directly asked “why did the Minister say this in June”

Hipkins said Pfizer had not given the government its delivery schedule for the vaccine from July onwards, but said it has committed to delivering all the vaccines by the end of September.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/443388/covid-19-vaccinations-for-wider-nz-public-pushed-back-by-weeks

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