2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2784443 26-Sep-2021 13:30

Trans tasman peeking appears to be doing it's thing again

Australia had these 70/80 figures in mind till now. With the former being NSWs golden egg for summer/christmas. Now thinking 90 is better idea wider too.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ministers-eye-90-per-cent-vaccination-coverage-to-lift-restrictions-on-unjabbed-20210925-p58upw.html

Victoria taking the hits. Unsurprisingly. 2 death and nearing 800 cases. (779)

Batman

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#2784444 26-Sep-2021 13:36

18 cases 2 unlinked. this is likely the end result of delta level 4 for 6 weeks. 10-20 a day

i wonder what the cases will settle at with delta level 3. and if and when it might spread out of akl.

having said that, vaccinate and live in hope!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1pm-update-18-new-cases-in-the-community/CLW7LNEKPA67FLLH3VXZ5DNRDI/

Fred99

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#2784445 26-Sep-2021 13:37

Technofreak:

His item number 5 was particularly good.

Instead, reassure people that living with the virus is possible, as long as you're vaccinated. Take positive actions like funding Pharmac to invest in therapies proven to help fight the virus, build up our hospital capacity and workforce, use saliva testing for Covid, subsidise home-testing kits for Covid and order booster shots now.

No. It's an incredibly shallow and selfish view, and shows he has no real understanding of the social and medical issues.

For starters, "living with the virus" is going to mean condemning a significant number of the vulnerable in our population to live in isolation - not much better than prison. Otherwise the truth is far from "living with the virus" - but condemning the vulnerable to be "dying with the virus".

"Funding Pharmac to invest in therapies proven to help fight the virus" is pretty ambiguous, we're not going to be able to develop our own MAb treatments, if MAb treatments are going to be of any use, then in their present form they're not going to be able to be administered "at home" - they're specialised infusions, they're very expensive, they work best if given before symptomatic infection appears. At this point in time they're going to be truly useful, if and only if we manage exit from the elimination approach with a very well controlled science-based approach.

Fred99

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#2784451 26-Sep-2021 13:46

Oblivian: Trans tasman peeking appears to be doing it's thing again

Australia had these 70/80 figures in mind till now. With the former being NSWs golden egg for summer/christmas. Now thinking 90 is better idea wider too.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ministers-eye-90-per-cent-vaccination-coverage-to-lift-restrictions-on-unjabbed-20210925-p58upw.html

Victoria taking the hits. Unsurprisingly. 2 death and nearing 800 cases. (779)

If this poll - also in a SMH article is correct, then that 90% figure is looking achievable.

ajobbins

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#2784453 26-Sep-2021 13:56

Batman:
18 cases 2 unlinked. this is likely the end result of delta level 4 for 6 weeks. 10-20 a day

Possibly the more important number is 50% of yesterday's cases had exposure events/were infectious in the community. Unless that number comes does to zero or near zero it's unlikely this will die out

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Scott3

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#2784471 26-Sep-2021 14:08

Batman:

18 cases 2 unlinked. this is likely the end result of delta level 4 for 6 weeks. 10-20 a day

i wonder what the cases will settle at with delta level 3. and if and when it might spread out of akl.

having said that, vaccinate and live in hope!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-1pm-update-18-new-cases-in-the-community/CLW7LNEKPA67FLLH3VXZ5DNRDI/

Full press release I here:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/18-community-cases-covid-19-one-new-case-and-two-historical-cases-managed-isolation-over-5-million

The bit I am tracking:

Cases infectious in the community: Eight (50%) of yesterday’s 16 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious: Eight (50%) of yesterday’s 16 cases

At least the numbers add up to 100% unlike yesterday, but the cases infectious in the community remains stubbornly above zero.

I don't think there is going to be any settling of case number under level 3. Level 4 only just had the R0 below 1, and level 3 has a lot more people out and about, R0 is going to be comfortably above 1... In my mind level 3 is just about keeping case growth low, in order to buy time to wait for late spring & summer, and get heaps more vaccinations done. Hopefully our reasonable vaccination rates will also put a dampener on growth.

In terms of vaccinations, we are now less than 2 weeks from when the 90k dose days hit their 6 week spacing for their second dose, so we should expect 2nd dose numbers to shoot up soon.

Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 51,472; 1st doses: 19,350; 2nd doses: 32,122

But in my eyes it is first dose numbers that are super important. Another day below 20k first doses sadly. (actually that number would be fine if we could stop the declining trend)

[edit]

Just noticed this:

Cases epidemiologically linked: 16 of today’s 18 cases. All 16 have been in isolation at home or in an MIQ.

Looks like we had a max of 2 with exposure events community today.

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#2784473 26-Sep-2021 14:11

heavenlywild: ^Agree.

We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

I don't see any articles, anywhere, laughing at us.

We pretty much dodged a bullet so far. As I mentioned before, my family lives in the State of Parana in Brazil. The state has a population of 11 million, roughly double of New Zealand. They have 38,000 dead so far.

If you think we have done badly, I am not sure what you are taking for comparison.

I have the impression some of our users have been poisoned by some view of a different New Zealand, planted by politics instead of rational analysis.

Please wake up and take a very hard look at how you are being influenced and who is planting these thoughts on your minds. You will see other interests behind it.

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GV27

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#2784474 26-Sep-2021 14:11

Fred99:

No. It's an incredibly shallow and selfish view, and shows he has no real understanding of the social and medical issues.

For starters, "living with the virus" is going to mean condemning a significant number of the vulnerable in our population to live in isolation - not much better than prison. Otherwise the truth is far from "living with the virus" - but condemning the vulnerable to be "dying with the virus".

Again, only if you're coming at it by mischaracterising his argument as opening up before vaccination rates improve dramatically.

Honestly the aggressive personal responses and calling people delusional is getting a bit much for the thread, especially considering you seem to pretty quickly tell others to go to the 'politicisation of the response' one. Maybe you should consider taking your own advice.

heavenlywild

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#2784476 26-Sep-2021 14:14

Fred99:
heavenlywild: I think Ardern rolling out Hendy was a mistake and people are sick and tired of the same old fearmongering.

That was a huge PR mistake. Then you have Sir John Key coming in with some pragmatism which makes last Thursday's "stunt" look even worse.

If you're referring to the economist who works as a consultant to foreign banks and somehow managed to get his opinion published as a front page hit piece on Hendy, a highly qualified and awarded expert in his field, then I think you're dreaming.

You think Key's article is "pragmatic" - then you're delusional.

This thread is the place:

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=184&topicid=289737

So Hendy's analysis that we tax payers no doubt paid mega bucks for was worth it?

No public health measures = high death rates. You don't need to be a qualified anything to know that.

freitasm

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#2784477 26-Sep-2021 14:16

GV27:

Fred99:

Oh gosh - you've got a seriously distorted view of reality. You seem to be stuck in a sad little world of political one-liners and memes, eavesdropped from a young Nats pyjama party.

For someone who is always lecturing other people about bringing politics into this thread, this is a pretty low-bar response.

As mentioned on my previous reply, people are bringing politics into this thread. The response was accurate. What I see is sometimes people posting in this for the first time and brining some right-wing view of the world - which seems to always be "New Zealand is doomed. Our response is wrong. People are laughing at us" when in fact we have had a robust response, with low incidences of covid-19 and low number of deaths.

This narrative of low covid and low deaths doesn't help the opposition which can't stand the current government doing something right.

So, yes stop this damn politics in this thread - from this reply on anyone posting this bullshit gets locked out of this sub-forum. If you want to discuss this kind of things, go into the Politics sub-forum.

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mattwnz

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#2784535 26-Sep-2021 14:48

ajobbins:
Batman:

18 cases 2 unlinked. this is likely the end result of delta level 4 for 6 weeks. 10-20 a day

Possibly the more important number is 50% of yesterday's cases had exposure events/were infectious in the community. Unless that number comes does to zero or near zero it's unlikely this will die out

I wouldn't be surprised to see them going up a level if cases rise. But they need to do far more testing, only 4500 yesterday in Auckland,.. Considering the PM said Level 3 is supposed to be very similar to level 4, and people should stay at home unless you are going to work, the amount of traffic and things open while in level 3 almost looks like level 2. Almost seems Auckland has gone into a level 2.5.

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#2784537 26-Sep-2021 14:53

Norway has now removed all covid restrictions. Check back in two weeks to see how that's working out for them as their fully vaccinated rate is only 67%.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/norway-end-coronavirus-related-restrictions-saturday-2021-09-24/

mattwnz

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#2784539 26-Sep-2021 14:55

freitasm:

heavenlywild: ^Agree.

We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

I don't see any articles, anywhere, laughing at us.

We pretty much dodged a bullet so far. As I mentioned before, my family lives in the State of Parana in Brazil. The state has a population of 11 million, roughly double of New Zealand. They have 38,000 dead so far.

If you think we have done badly, I am not sure what you are taking for comparison.

I have the impression some of our users have been poisoned by some view of a different New Zealand, planted by politics instead of rational analysis.

Please wake up and take a very hard look at how you are being influenced and who is planting these thoughts on your minds. You will see other interests behind it.

The thing is that there is no other country that NZ could use as a better example, than what we have done. I remember when some in the media were using Australia as the poster child of how to manage it, and were also the ones pushing for that transtasman bubble, even though they have double the ICU capacity of NZ, so could live with covid better. They seem to have backed off that one since the outbreaks.

empacher48

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#2784540 26-Sep-2021 14:56

Fred99:

For starters, "living with the virus" is going to mean condemning a significant number of the vulnerable in our population to live in isolation - not much better than prison. Otherwise the truth is far from "living with the virus" - but condemning the vulnerable to be "dying with the virus".

So what you’re saying here is that you would prefer large numbers of the population to be kept prisoners in their homes and in isolation, which is happening now with alert level 3 and 4. To prevent the small number of people ineligible or anti-vax from getting sick?

You would prefer the government to borrow $1 billion a week to keep the vast majority of businesses and people employed, because they are kept prisoners in their own homes to protect the small number of ineligible and anti-vax people?

We are getting close to the point where the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

ezbee

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#2784550 26-Sep-2021 15:07

On2or3wheels:

Norway has now removed all covid restrictions. Check back in two weeks to see how that's working out for them as their fully vaccinated rate is only 67%.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/norway-end-coronavirus-related-restrictions-saturday-2021-09-24/

Not quite all restrictions ?

Seems if you are from America you might find more restrictions than you expect in getting into the place in the first place. Norway.https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2021/09/24/norway-entry-requirements-travel-europe-us/5845118001/

If you are on the purple list, like New Zealand.
""
These travelers will not have to quarantine or undergo testing if they have been fully vaccinated or can prove that they had been infected and recovered from the coronavirus within the last six months.
""

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