2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2422871 18-Feb-2020 08:38

WHO officially has 59 cases in Japan, 33 of which are possible/confirmed transmissions outside of China, 26 cases with travel history to China. 6 new cases for them today. They also have released some guidance for managing entry points and gatherings:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/points-of-entry-and-mass-gatherings

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#2422875 18-Feb-2020 08:45

Beccara:

WHO officially has 59 cases in Japan, 33 of which are possible/confirmed transmissions outside of China, 26 cases with travel history to China. 6 new cases for them today. They also have released some guidance for managing entry points and gatherings:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/points-of-entry-and-mass-gatherings

Thanks. I took that Japan news site article as really serious, as if its out in the wild there, and while numbers are low, its a densely populated country, plus the lag between catching and symptoms. Maybe its not that big a deal after all

Fred99

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#2422877 18-Feb-2020 08:46

Comparing the Westerdam cruise ship to the Diamond Princess.

The current number of confirmed infected from the Diamond Princess is 454.

99 were added yesterday, 70 of those 99 had no symptoms.

"A total of 1723 test results have been obtained so far". I'm not sure what that means - 1723 tests, or 1723 people tested (multiple tests for some?) Anyway - less than half have been tested.

According to some news I've read, not only were passengers from the Westerdam greeted, but they were given a city tour.

On 13 February, the ship was allowed to dock in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Malaysia reported on 15 February that an 83-year-old US citizen who disembarked Westerdam and flew into Malaysia on 14 February had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. In a second test, requested both by the Holland America Line and Cambodian authorities, the woman tested again positive.

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#2422887 18-Feb-2020 08:58

tdgeek:

Thanks. I took that Japan news site article as really serious, as if its out in the wild there, and while numbers are low, its a densely populated country, plus the lag between catching and symptoms. Maybe its not that big a deal after all

Yeah it was a serious event, I think a taxi driver was spreading the infection which lead to the Japanese death and infections elsewhere so they are contact tracking and testing a few hundred others reportedly

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#2422941 18-Feb-2020 09:22

Pretty clear that there's an outbreak in Tokyo.

Not only did we have the report about the single Taxi driver infecting the businessman, and someone at a hospital infecting a doctor who then infected his wife...

But check out this report - 11 taxi drivers infected at a party for taxi drivers on a boat... where they all cramped in and shut all the windows due to rain (you can't make this stuff up).

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200217/p2a/00m/0na/012000c

For those link averse :-

"The New Year's party was held on Jan. 18 by a branch of a private taxi union based in Tokyo's Jonan area, and was attended by about 70 taxi drivers and their families who dined on the boat. However, the windows were shut due to heavy rain, creating a confined space with insufficient ventilation -- the kind of environment where disease spreads more easily."

Good luck tracking all their contacts...

Further in the article it mentions potential non-related infections of an office worker and a chauffeur.

Struggling to think of a way to 'short' the Olympics at this point.

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#2422942 18-Feb-2020 09:27

Yes, and nothing on Stuff or CNN. With the Olympics and a small outbreak in a densely populated country, it seems not newsworthy. Ive got a mate whose gf is returning Friday from a failed ski trip, Id like to know more

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#2422944 18-Feb-2020 09:27

grimwulf:

Struggling to think of a way to 'short' the Olympics at this point.

Probably via stock in the broadcasters or the sponsors, but most are huge conglomerates so you will only get a diluted reaction...

wellygary

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#2422996 18-Feb-2020 09:42

I just listened to one of the NZers on the Diamond Princess say that they would not be taking up the offer to be flown home because it would involve being re-quarantined for another 14 days, So they would wait until they finished their existing quarantine period and then look to find their own way home...

These people are barking ,

its quite clear that the cabin quarantine has failed , I find it highly unlikely that Japan are going to release over 2000 people into the general population as tourists or residents and allow them to sightsee before leaving the country....

I'm fairly sure the reason nations are evacuating their citizens is because behind the scenes Japan has told them we are going to continue quarantining them...

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#2423007 18-Feb-2020 10:06

wellygary:

I just listened to one of the NZers on the Diamond Princess say that they would not be taking up the offer to be flown home because it would involve being re-quarantined for another 14 days, So they would wait until they finished their existing quarantine period and then look to find their own way home...

These people are barking ,

Staying on the ship is the worst option - it's an infection factory. They may be misinformed rather than "barking". There's no chance they'll be released into Japan, then jump on a regular flight home.

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#2423017 18-Feb-2020 10:25

grimwulf:

Struggling to think of a way to 'short' the Olympics at this point.

Just short everything to do with tourism, travel... (as well, commodities, manufacturing, the $NZ..)

Turns out cruise liners are just floating petri-dishes.

Royal Caribbean Cruises has already cancelled 18 cruises in southeast Asia.. that's dragging down Carnival Corp, Norwegian Cruise Lines and others.

Not to be too gloomy, but for a country like NZ with a tourism portfolio so reliant on a single source market, the risk is significant.

Anecdotally, several inbound tourism operators with a focus on the Chinese market are already toast.
I know of one tour operator who, in her second year of operation, and the middle of peak season has just closed her doors, laid off her staff and parked her buses.

NZ will be hit hard, just as it's going to be a massive hit on tourism worldwide..
Already struggling for other reasons, for many of NZ's tourism enterprises the growing Chinese travel market's been the difference between long term profitability and an ongoing loss.

China accounts for a fifth of the world’s total tourism spend, and spends more on outbound travel than the next two countries combined (the US and Germany). China’s global outbound spend is $277 billion compared to $144 billion for the US and $94 billion for Germany. In 2017, 10% of China’s 1.4 billion people travelled internationally, that number rose again to a record in 2018 before a slight drop in 2019.

There are now no flights into or out of China apart from those by a few regional operators.

Some 70 airlines have cancelled all international flights to/from mainland China, a further 50 airlines have cut flights.
That's an 80% reduction of foreign airline capacity for travellers directly to/from China, and a 40% capacity reduction by Chinese airlines.
It's unlikely these flights will be reinstated in the next couple of months so international travel for most Chinese tourists is over in the short term.

When flights do resume, there'll be a strong response from regional competitors in Asia Pacific - Thailand and Japan, in particular, who'll try to boost Chinese demand through incentive pricing and targeted marketing. In the first quarter of 2020 estimates are that Japan will lose US$1.29 billion in tourism revenue, Thailand - $1.15 billion.
Their response will put pressure on longer-haul destinations outside the region like NZ.

For some countries - particularly in the Middle East and South Asia, more than 50% of tourism revenue comes from the Chinese market.
Where stats are available, destinations currently in their high seasons are experiencing cancellations en mass.
Hotels that would normally be at capacity are running at under 50%. Expect competitive discounting to start and continue in those places.

Tourism Boards and Destination Marketing Organizations across the world are already scrambling to switch their focus from China to short-haul and regional markets.

First-mover advantage will be critical – the destinations that can move fastest stand the best chance of riding out the crisis, catching the recovery.
I'm sure Tourism NZ and other DMO's are moving at warp speed in that direction. I've heard that within China trying to market to the 'captive audience' in those areas that are locked down is a priority, as is promoting NZ as a clean, healthy destination in other countries.

And the good news is that if this is contained - and over fast - judging by the SARS, Bird Flu etc. tourism should rebound within a year or so..

wellygary

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#2423067 18-Feb-2020 10:46

Sidestep:

Not to be too gloomy, but for a country like NZ with a tourism portfolio so reliant on a single source market, the risk is significant.

Although in reality NZ Tourism is reasonably diverse, Chinese tourism is around 10% of arrivals and around 16% of spending,

and to be honest Chinese arrival numbers have been falling ever since some bright spark decided to declare 2019 the "China-NZ year of Tourism" and over the whole year they fell 9%...

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/3438-key-tourism-statistics-pdf

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tdgeek

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#2423070 18-Feb-2020 10:57

Exports are an issue too? A company here had to place back in the sea a huge amount of crayfish I think it was, and other excerpts of businesses with orders stopped. Conversely are we allowing imports in freely? They get sold adding value to our economy. Chinese businesses up there are having employee issues, as in they are not readily available due to quarantines

Sidestep

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#2423071 18-Feb-2020 10:57

wellygary:

Sidestep:

Not to be too gloomy, but for a country like NZ with a tourism portfolio so reliant on a single source market, the risk is significant.

Although in reality NZ Tourism is reasonably diverse, Chinese tourism is around 10% of arrivals and around 16% of spending,

and to be honest Chinese arrival numbers have been falling ever since some bright spark decided to declare 2019 the "China-NZ year of Tourism" and over the whole year they fell 9%...

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/3438-key-tourism-statistics-pdf

The problem is that 16% of spending has been the 'glue' holding together a bunch of marginal operations that've been struggling for a while now.
Expect the coming tourism destination competition to suck away a percentage of non-Chinese tourism also..

Budget Thai holiday anyone?

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#2423077 18-Feb-2020 11:16

wellygary:

Sidestep:

Not to be too gloomy, but for a country like NZ with a tourism portfolio so reliant on a single source market, the risk is significant.

Although in reality NZ Tourism is reasonably diverse, Chinese tourism is around 10% of arrivals and around 16% of spending,

and to be honest Chinese arrival numbers have been falling ever since some bright spark decided to declare 2019 the "China-NZ year of Tourism" and over the whole year they fell 9%...

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/3438-key-tourism-statistics-pdf

no the real reason Chinese tourism dropped was because of Chinese govt policy. you see, in 2018, NZ openly criticized china twice - for their south china sea territory grab, and the attempted genocide of minority muslims, and the proceeded to abandon huawei on the 5g saga. immediately after the huawei saga nz salmon was held up at the ports, an airnz plane was denied entry into shanghai. in early 2019 China implemented policies to

- reduce import of NZ products

- discourage tourism to NZ

- discourage international students to NZ

I watched some Chinese news while travelling overseas in April 2019 and every other show had something bad to say about NZ. the one i recall was NZ kiwifruit were tainted with chemicals that causes birth defects. who knows what other propaganda is being shown. not making this up. my wife also watched it and can confirm.

But anyway, watch this space re coronavirus. Who knows what will happen.

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#2423091 18-Feb-2020 11:55

NZ Tourism has received a modest $10 million budget increase to assist with campaigns to reduce the impact.

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