2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2458563 9-Apr-2020 17:20

frankv:

tdgeek:

If you feel that enforcing on these idiots, while the rest of us do our best for the common good, is tantamount to a dictatotship, or a communist state, well I'm gobsmacked. If you prefer not to have Courts, or laws or the preference of safety, I guess that's an opinion

I'm concerned about the labeling of people as "idiots". This kind of "obvious" division between them ("idiots who break the rules") and us ("well-behaved, clean-living, good guys") is precisely the kind of thing that authoritarians of either left- or right-wing persuasion thrive on.

In the words of someone famous: "They are us". Let's keep it respectful. People are people.

You're right, my bad, agree.

msukiwi

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#2458565 9-Apr-2020 17:25

I expected to see entries in the Lego thread by now, showing us your achievements with it during the lock down :-)

(Nothing in the Lego thread since January. Or as geeks everyone into Lego here is "essential" and therefore have no extra time to indulge their hobby?)

Especially since Lego masters is back on TV at the moment.

cshwone

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#2458570 9-Apr-2020 17:31

frankv:

tdgeek:

If you feel that enforcing on these idiots, while the rest of us do our best for the common good, is tantamount to a dictatotship, or a communist state, well I'm gobsmacked. If you prefer not to have Courts, or laws or the preference of safety, I guess that's an opinion

I'm concerned about the labeling of people as "idiots". This kind of "obvious" division between them ("idiots who break the rules") and us ("well-behaved, clean-living, good guys") is precisely the kind of thing that authoritarians of either left- or right-wing persuasion thrive on.

In the words of someone famous: "They are us". Let's keep it respectful. People are people.

I have heard both the PM and Police Commissioner use "idiot" in this context at the daily briefings.

And let's not forget our Health Minister who described himself as an "idiot" for his transgressions

kingdragonfly

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#2458572 9-Apr-2020 17:32

Politifact: Trump: “Now, they’re doing tests on airlines — very strong tests — for getting on, getting off. They’re doing tests on trains — getting on, getting off.”

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/06/donald-trump/donald-trump-wrong-about-covid-19-testing-airplane/

neb

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#2458580 9-Apr-2020 17:50

msukiwi:
I expected to see entries in the Lego thread by now, showing us your achievements with it during the lock down :-)

What, like this photo showing what you can do with a spare 15,000 popsicle sticks you have lying around and too much time on your hands?

neb

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#2458592 9-Apr-2020 18:04

Encouraging trends emerging in NZ, posted by @frankv to the data analysis thread but looks like it'll be of interest to folks here as well.

frankv

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#2458606 9-Apr-2020 18:36

freitasm:
frankv:

Sorry, I don't see how that follows from my statements that you quoted?

I have said, elsewhere, that "some people flying in" were in numbers too large to be taken to hotels as you suggest.

Because the statement I've quoted clearly asks for evidence supporting enforce quarantine and on the subsequent question implying that since we haven't seen evidence of people coming back and spreading the virus, one shouldn't follow the other.

Um, still don't see the connection. What I was talking about was people saying we should have had enforced quarantine 2 weeks ago. Afaik, there's no evidence of people coming here during that period, breaking self-isolation, and infecting anyone. So, retrospectively, we can see that the decision didn't have any detrimental effect.

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mattwnz

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#2458607 9-Apr-2020 18:49

frankv: Afaik, there's no evidence of people coming here during that period, breaking self-isolation, and infecting anyone. So, retrospectively, we can see that the decision didn't have any detrimental effect.

I don't think there is evidence that has been released either way TBH. But the previous system relied on trust, and the fact is that people who were required to self isolate didn't, and I know of one person myself who didn't and went out socialising, and they were reported by multiple people for doing this.

However if the lockdown is working, and there is a 14 day incubation period, then shouldn't we start seeing no new cases after 14 days of lockdown? Or are these people essential workers, or medical staff, where transmission is still occurring at a lower level, or occurring due to interactions at places like supermarkets? Or are they people from the bubble of someone how has recently returned from overseas who is in self isolation?
Not sure if this level of detail has been released. Hopefully now there are less cases, we will get more information on each new case and how they are linked, like we did originally when they first started reporting cases.

loceff13

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#2458611 9-Apr-2020 19:06

frankv:

Yeah, I get that. But it's a 2 week clock, not a 4 week clock. So long as we're only looking at a 2-person chain of infection. Hence small bubbles of closely-associated people. Hence the quarantine starting now, 2 weeks from the expected end of lockdown.

The overlapping bubbles via the supermarket has been a problem since day 1. But it appears to not in fact be a problem.

Not every case is a 2 week period, mainly the mild ones. The more serious cases often go to hospital on ~day 10 after symptoms begin(so potentially 2 weeks after infection). ie Boris Johnson positive 27th March in hospital 5th April. In China there has been a case where a person was infected for roughly 50 days while being treated in hospital.

That does not mean come April 23rd Covid19 is stamped out in NZ but its going to reduce the amount of active infections dramatically and hopefully to a point where it's possible to isolate and eliminate it for an extended period of time.

mattwnz

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#2458615 9-Apr-2020 19:14

loceff13:

Not every case is a 2 week period, mainly the mild ones. The more serious cases often go to hospital on ~day 10 after symptoms begin(so potentially 2 weeks after infection). ie Boris Johnson positive 27th March in hospital 5th April. In China there has been a case where a person was infected for roughly 50 days while being treated in hospital.

That does not mean come April 23rd Covid19 is stamped out in NZ but its going to reduce the amount of active infections dramatically and hopefully to a point where it's possible to isolate and eliminate it for an extended period of time.

Incubation is up to two weeks. The the period of time someone can have it for can be up to 6 weeks I have heard in some of the worst cases, which corresponds to your 50 days.

The process of eliminating, vs eradication I understand needs a huge amount of testing and really good tracking, like they have done in countries who were previously affected by SARS.. Hopefully we are getting a lot of advice from those countries and the systems they are using.

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#2458623 9-Apr-2020 19:37

The Easter holiday movements are disappointing. In retrospect some Easter specific messages and advertising were required to explain the need to avoid this.

Ge0rge

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#2458625 9-Apr-2020 19:40

gzt: The Easter holiday movements are disappointing. In retrospect some Easter specific messages and advertising were required to explain the need to avoid this.

Sadly it would seem so. Personally I understood that stay at home meant just that, not stay at home oh except for that four day period in the middle - do what you want then.

Smh.

mentalinc

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#2458627 9-Apr-2020 19:46

The countdown to 500 is on.

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frankv

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#2458630 9-Apr-2020 19:57

loceff13:
frankv:

Yeah, I get that. But it's a 2 week clock, not a 4 week clock. So long as we're only looking at a 2-person chain of infection. Hence small bubbles of closely-associated people. Hence the quarantine starting now, 2 weeks from the expected end of lockdown.

The overlapping bubbles via the supermarket has been a problem since day 1. But it appears to not in fact be a problem.

Not every case is a 2 week period, mainly the mild ones. The more serious cases often go to hospital on ~day 10 after symptoms begin(so potentially 2 weeks after infection). ie Boris Johnson positive 27th March in hospital 5th April. In China there has been a case where a person was infected for roughly 50 days while being treated in hospital.

My point about the 14 day clock related to the time during which you might pass the infection on. I thought symptoms started about day 3. But likely there would be a bell curve of probabilities for that and the 10 day infectious period. Whilst I accept that someone is still infectious 50 days later if they're in hospital, they aren't going to pass it on. So I was only considering the time someone in the community would be infectious.

tdgeek

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#2458632 9-Apr-2020 19:57

gzt: The Easter holiday movements are disappointing. In retrospect some Easter specific messages and advertising were required to explain the need to avoid this.

I was shocked. In life there are always the bad apples, but I was shocked to see it was common as. Same in Australia. I felt there was no need to repeat the same message that we have had for two weeks. Stay at home. If thats not clear, then add that to domestic travel is a no no. Clearly my perception of humans is way off base.

Its great for the Pandemic Plan [updated 2021] though.

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