2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2458706 10-Apr-2020 00:38

DarthKermit:
@freitasm

Is this the fastest thread ever to get to 500 pages?

Just as a comparison the Trump thread over in Politics is over a thousand pages, but took 1 1/2 years to get to 500, and has only added about 20 pages during the Covid19 thing. Having said that, there's a pile of good political cartoons in the last 10-20 pages...

mattwnz

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#2458710 10-Apr-2020 02:38

gzt: The Easter holiday movements are disappointing. In retrospect some Easter specific messages and advertising were required to explain the need to avoid this.

These people should get instant fines eg $5000, like they are in Australia... people have already been warned enough times that they must stay at home. In Oz they apparently are also using aerial surveillance to monitor movements. Australia look like they are doing some things better ATM, their testing per million is also higher than NZs, as 12,000 per million, whiles NZs is at 10,000 per million.

Handle9

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#2458711 10-Apr-2020 02:43

Batman:
I have no idea what you're talking about.

Dictators spy on their people, dismember their people, shoot their people or jail their people whenever they feel like. From what I read more countries are going that way thanks to covid.
/p>

Sounds like the US government.

Batman

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#2458719 10-Apr-2020 06:38

Handle9:
Batman:

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Dictators spy on their people, dismember their people, shoot their people or jail their people whenever they feel like. From what I read more countries are going that way thanks to covid.
/p>

Sounds like the US government.

Hey are you guys ok in ??Dubai? Together again?

Handle9

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#2458720 10-Apr-2020 06:46

Batman:
Hey are you guys ok in ??Dubai? Together again?

Yeah we're good. We're just finishing our 4th week of staying at home. It's been a full lockdown here for a week now.

The cases are getting pretty high, we have about 300 new cases a day, until a week ago we were running similarly to NZ. The measures here weren't as strict as NZ until recently but now it is being enforced rigidly. It'll be ok here in a month or two but it could get rocky on the way. Fortunately the authorities have the ability to control society more rigidly than in NZ.

cshwone

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#2458722 10-Apr-2020 07:02

mattwnz:

gzt: The Easter holiday movements are disappointing. In retrospect some Easter specific messages and advertising were required to explain the need to avoid this.

These people should get instant fines eg $5000, like they are in Australia... people have already been warned enough times that they must stay at home. In Oz they apparently are also using aerial surveillance to monitor movements. Australia look like they are doing some things better ATM, their testing per million is also higher than NZs, as 12,000 per million, whiles NZs is at 10,000 per million.

I don't think the government, tv advertising, radio advertising, internet news sites could have been any clearer. the message was and is "Stay at home"

There can be no excuses left any more and in my mind these people have moved from being merely idiots to criminals who have carried out deliberate and blatant acts against the laws of the country and should be treated as such.

I liked the following quote in a Stuff article:

"However, police were worried about the high number of people who appeared to be in Whangamata and Whitianga.

"We are monitoring that."

If people had got to their baches for the long weekend, Mortimore said they might not get home again.

"If people have got there and they shouldn't have got there, that's really disappointing.

"We will be doing checkpoints over the weekend so if people have got into those locations and are thinking they will head home ... they might get turned around.""

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#2458729 10-Apr-2020 07:56

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-new-research-shows-new-zealand-could-ve-had-hundreds-of-extra-cases-without-lockdown.html

I found the above article to be quite interesting. The research referred to can be seen here:

https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Stochastic-Model-FINAL-RELEASE.pdf

In the abstract to the above report it states that:

We find that fast tracing and case isolation (i.e. operations that are sustained at rates comparable to that at the early stages of New Zealand’s response) can lead to containment or elimination, as long as strong population-wide controls remain in place.

Slow case isolation can lead to containment (but not elimination) as long as strong Level 4 population-wide controls remain in place. However, we find that relaxing strong population-wide controls after four weeks will most likely lead to a further outbreak, although the speed of growth of this outbreak can be reduced by fast case isolation, by tracing, testing, or otherwise.

We find that elimination is only likely if case isolation is combined with strong population-wide controls that are maintained for longer than four weeks. Further versions of this model will include an age-structured population as well as considering the

It's interesting to distinguish between the likely results of "fast case" and "slow case" isolation. The words "possibly even elimination" will no doubt raise people's spirits, but we are still at a very early stage and with a lot more work to do.

The research report also mentions that:

Our results show that for small COVID-19 case numbers, such as those New Zealand is currently managing, rapid case isolation can play an important role. This opens up the possibility of containment or elimination, scenarios that are very distant for most other countries.

tdgeek

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#2458753 10-Apr-2020 08:40

It seems likely we will go to Level 3 on April 22. That worries me and Im sure the Govt is worried also.

On the positive side:

Its still restrictive, limited travel between regions, some non essential businesses still closed, no mass gatherings, many businesses still shut. But no need to stay at home. Its still a lockdown, but less restrictive, the virus isn't contained, CT is still there, but its under control, and can be managed to continue to eradicate it

On the negative side:

Party time, catch up time, see everyone we know time. While the restriction details (mainly around what non essentials can open and under what terms) are yet to be announced, we still need to be very careful, but I can see a lot of "no lockdown, yay" While many will adhere to safe practices, its likely that there will be clusters breaking out from careless party goers/socialisers, and we are well aware how they can grow and grow.

I hope they delay Level 3 to after Anzac Day, so its a BAU working week when it kicks in. And the public HAS to be told that its not a relax time, its an easier Level 4, and if we see clusters breaking out its back to Level 4. Its actually time to take more care than Level 4, as stay at home took over that care for 4 weeks, now we have to manage it individually. I want them to tell people that if you get any symptoms that "could" be the virus, call Healthline, etc, nothing has really changed. Very little has changed, in fact Level 3 is more a worry than 4, as humans need to take more responsibility, and evidence to date shows thats often not great.

If you dont want Level 4, be good at level 3

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#2458758 10-Apr-2020 08:55

My guess is that level 3 will be by DHB districts, just because that seems to be the granularity of the analysis. If a district doesn't have any active cases at 23 April, it will go to level 3, with checkpoints between districts. Travel will be allowed within level 3 districts only, not between. And, of course, any new cases will see a district go back to level 4.

Ge0rge

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#2458760 10-Apr-2020 09:05

frankv: My guess is that level 3 will be by DHB districts, just because that seems to be the granularity of the analysis. If a district doesn't have any active cases at 23 April, it will go to level 3, with checkpoints between districts. Travel will be allowed within level 3 districts only, not between. And, of course, any new cases will see a district go back to level 4.

While I agree this may be the case, I am struggling to see how they will enforce no travel between districts. The boundaries are quite arbitrary. If I live on the boundary, which way can I go? They are some big boundaries...

tdgeek

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#2458762 10-Apr-2020 09:18

Ge0rge:
frankv: My guess is that level 3 will be by DHB districts, just because that seems to be the granularity of the analysis. If a district doesn't have any active cases at 23 April, it will go to level 3, with checkpoints between districts. Travel will be allowed within level 3 districts only, not between. And, of course, any new cases will see a district go back to level 4.

While I agree this may be the case, I am struggling to see how they will enforce no travel between districts. The boundaries are quite arbitrary. If I live on the boundary, which way can I go? They are some big boundaries...

My litmus test would be this. I live in ChCh, so I stay in ChCh and its environs. Rangiora to the North, yep. Ashburton to the South, yep. No further.

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ben28

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#2458765 10-Apr-2020 09:27

we can't possibly support mandatory quarantine when thousands of people are still coming in.

I agree, but we can limit arrivals to match our capacity. Even at 500 a day we can return 180,000 kiwis in a year
If a non kiwi wants to come ( eg for business purposes then make them pay including a profit margin)
Hopefully over time the quarantine period can be reduced but we can’t let the tail wag the dog on this issue.

ben28

frankv

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#2458774 10-Apr-2020 09:57

Ge0rge: While I agree this may be the case, I am struggling to see how they will enforce no travel between districts. The boundaries are quite arbitrary. If I live on the boundary, which way can I go? They are some big boundaries...

I live near a district boundary, and work in another district, so I do see the problem. Perhaps you can go either way, but I expect you will want to stay in the "clean" district.

But, thinking about my Whanganui district, the Rangitikei River is one boundary, with only a few bridges. The Desert Road, SH4, and SH3 to the north and west are the major roads.So half a dozen checkpoints on the major roads, plus continued spot checks on people driving, to deal with the smartarses who use the backroads to cross the boundaries... if someone's home address is outside the district, punishment.

cshwone

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#2458777 10-Apr-2020 10:01

So how do we deal with Essential Workers who live in one DHB area and are required for work in another?

freitasm

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#2458778 10-Apr-2020 10:04

@neb:

@DarthKermit:

@freitasm

Is this the fastest thread ever to get to 500 pages?

Just as a comparison the Trump thread over in Politics is over a thousand pages, but took 1 1/2 years to get to 500, and has only added about 20 pages during the Covid19 thing. Having said that, there's a pile of good political cartoons in the last 10-20 pages...

The "Trending topics" on the frontpage is based on velocity - replies average since creation date through the last reply date. This thread has been on the topc of the list since creation and remains there. Based on the lenght at this point I'd say it will stay there for quite some time.

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