2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2427837 27-Feb-2020 06:48

Last week - after a bit of research, brought on partly by reading many interesting posts on Geekzone (among others), I sold off a bunch of my holdings.
Particularly Energy, Commodities, Tourism.. but held onto others (like Netflix - figure everyone will want something to watch while they're quarantining)

That afternoon I received an unsolicited email from one of my financial institutions - "Hi *** I'm *** a Certified Financial Planner with ***.. there's lots to deal with and that is why I'm reaching out to you, to ensure we are here to help you as you need it."

They obviously thought I was making a terrible decision, perhaps would sue them once this turned out to be a 'storm in a teacup' and regretted my actions.

This morning my email box was again filled with 'Drops below' price alerts and warnings of mass selling.
Thanks Folks.

tdgeek

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#2427855 27-Feb-2020 07:27

PolicyGuy:
MikeB4:
The financial markets should not be looked upon as a barometer for this, they generally behave like demented reef fish and as jittery as a field mouse in a cattery.

There is something very odd about the financial markets' activities: since the outbreak started until last weekend, almost no reaction, then three days (so far) of panic.
It's been pretty obvious for at least three or four weeks to anyone paying attention [e.g.on GeekZone ;)] that a major outbreak is certain and a pandemic almost certain, yet "the markets" continued fat & happy on their way, until they "suddenly noticed" last weekend.

You'd almost think that gave the big end of town enough time to get their hedges and shorts in place before crying "panic" and spooking the lemmings over the cliff

Up until Iran and Italy suddenly had a large number of infections, it was all in China with very very small leaks elsewhere. Iran, Italy, now South Korea and now South America have changed the outlook. Leaks to non China countries are now growing epidemics, so its now a global outbreak, rather than 99.99% China based, thats the difference

surfisup1000

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#2427956 27-Feb-2020 08:24

Now is a great time to buy shares.

canine

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#2427969 27-Feb-2020 08:47

tdgeek:

I still dont follow why Hubei has such a high death rate compared to elsewhere in China. Its as though I get all the stats then throw them up in the air. And its probably other Govts as well as China where the numbers may be massaged.maybe even WHO, to reduce unrest.

There has been a fair amount of devious talk about ACE2 alveoli receptor achillies heel issue. Here is one refutation, and some musings over other possible reasons for the Hubei mort rate...

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/16/more-on-the-ace2-related-asian-covid-19-susceptibility-hypothesis/

Sidestep

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#2427973 27-Feb-2020 08:58

canine:

There has been a fair amount of devious talk about ACE2 alveoli receptor achillies heel issue. Here is one refutation, and some musings over other possible reasons for the Hubei mort rate...

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/16/more-on-the-ace2-related-asian-covid-19-susceptibility-hypothesis/

The problem with that link is James Lyons Weiler

wellygary

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#2427977 27-Feb-2020 09:04

canine:

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/16/more-on-the-ace2-related-asian-covid-19-susceptibility-hypothesis/

I was wavering at:

"Current hypotheses include that a covert SARS vaccination program was included in the national mandatory vaccination program started on Dec 1, 2019 "

They lost me at:

"the medical community should begin to collect past medical exposure information while they collect information on contact w/people who recently traveled to China:

"Were you recently vaccinated using aluminum-containing vaccines?"

This is just a typical Anti-vax post dressed up in epidemic Tyvex Overalls

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Beccara

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#2427982 27-Feb-2020 09:15

Yeah that link took a wrong turn at Albuquerque, Why is it so hard for people to understand that poor environmental conditions + old age + smoker/exposure to smokers + overwhelmed medical system = high death toll

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated

tdgeek

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#2428003 27-Feb-2020 09:27

For the first time in the novel coronavirus outbreak, the number of new cases reported outside of China in a single day was larger than those reported inside China, the World Health Organization reported today.

China reported 412 newly confirmed cases today, while 459 additional cases were reported outside of China, according to WHO’s daily report.

Most of China’s cases came from Hubei province, which reported 401 new cases. Six came from outside mainland China, including four from Hong Kong, which WHO includes in China’s count.

More than half of new cases outside of China came from South Korea, which reported 284 cases.

Given China's huge population, you would have to say there is a level of containment there. And in Iran, Italy and South Korea its probably running amok, out of control. In Brazil now too

frankv

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#2428004 27-Feb-2020 09:28

mattwnz:

Peoples kiwisavers could also be badly affected depending on how it plays out and the fund they are in, and how the sharemarket reacts over the longer term. So these sorts of events can jolt big corrections.

I believe the share market jitters are short-term (but of course may be wrong). For example, the drop in the NZX50 takes the price back to 5 Feb. So you'll only lose money if you bought in the last 3 weeks, and have to sell before the price recovers.

There's no cause for panic (unless you sold your house two weeks ago and invested all the proceeds in the sharemarket and signed up yesterday to buy a house tomorrow). The NZX50 has risen about 30% in the past year. So, if it drops 30% (which would be catastrophic), you'll lose 1 year of profits. Kiwisaver funds are typically long-term, and not all in the share market, so won't be affected very much at all.

frankv

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#2428054 27-Feb-2020 09:40

tdgeek:

company A is still as great as it was pre virus

Except if there really is a raging, decimating, pandemic.

The Black Death caused massive social changes because it killed so many people that suddenly houses and land were cheap to worthless; landlords couldn't find tenants, farm owners couldn't find workers, and the market for foodstuffs plummeted. Conversely, workers' value went up, so people could safely leave their jobs and move around more.

But covid19 doesn't seem to be anywhere near the virility of the Black Death. Or maybe it's just that we now have better healthcare systems.

Beccara

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#2428055 27-Feb-2020 09:40

German DAX is back to October levels, Nasdaq back to the start of the year and still dropping, S&P 500 is back to start of December, Nikki back to October. 50% of the worlds manufacturing base is in various states of crippled. If you mean short-term as in 12-24 months then sure, I'm already being told from suppliers than even if China started up again tomorrow at 100% I can expect at least 6 months of supply issues on various tech items

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geekiegeek

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#2428138 27-Feb-2020 11:52

I also read somewhere about a shipping container shortage outside of China as a whole bunch are stuck in China not moving. So supply issues are likely to be far wider than just stuff made in China.

Fred99

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#2428155 27-Feb-2020 12:29

Here's the live feed of a press conference from the President of the United States of America and CDC task force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_0iw62a6PQ&feature=youtu.be

gehenna

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#2428178 27-Feb-2020 12:45

geekiegeek:

I also read somewhere about a shipping container shortage outside of China as a whole bunch are stuck in China not moving. So supply issues are likely to be far wider than just stuff made in China.

Probably no worse than the Maersk ransomware event at this stage. Global logistics ground to a halt when that happened. Another problem of a monolithic organisation being taken out of action as a single point of failure. Just as China is a monolithic single point of global manufacturing failure.

Beccara

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#2428182 27-Feb-2020 12:56

Maersk was only a 10 day event tho, How many weeks into the shutdown are we now? 5?

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