2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2468157 22-Apr-2020 22:58

Unfortunately, much of the misinformation being circulated eventually percolates to local media and social media outside Twitter:

Right-Wing Responsible For Pushing Coronavirus Disinformation On Twitter Worldwide, New Report Says

Finally, Graphika notes the rise of coronavirus-related narratives meant to “stoke geopolitical tensions,” including “undermining trust in global institutions and drawing attention to the failures of other governments, predominantly the Chinese response.” Some of this activity, they said, appears “to be overtly state-sponsored efforts to ‘save face’ abroad, and others appear to be more covert networks of accounts spreading disinformation.”

This includes such gems as praising the failing "Swedish Model" - a real life population experiment that so far has resulted in a death toll 100x higher than we have in NZ and Aus.

neb

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#2468158 22-Apr-2020 23:08

Fred99: Right-Wing Responsible For Pushing Coronavirus Disinformation On Twitter Worldwide, New Report Says

What's also interesting (or scary) is that the US has, as a percentage, ten times the right-wing propaganda output of the other regions surveyed (US 22%, Latin America + EU 2%).

DS248

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#2468159 22-Apr-2020 23:28

Oblivian:

DS248:

Re today's update. As per my post in the data analysis thread, the six new cases announced in the press briefing today included only 4 with a 'Date of report' being yesterday (3) or this morning (1). So down to just 3 (local & total) with a 'Date of report' = 21 Apr (yesterday). Trend vs 'Date of report' looks positive (#2467816).

And unless I heard it wrong a bunch attributed to the repatriation of known cases from cruise ship. So making the 'real' number like.. 2?

The numbers given at the press briefing appear to be net 'changes since the previous briefing'. On the MOH website it is headed "Change in last 24 hours"

What they say in the briefing is "new cases", which does not appear to be correct and can give a misleading impression.

For example, in today's briefing Bloomfield said: 6 new cases, all confirmed, 3 of them overseas travel cases, and the other 3 related to existing clusters

But ...

What the individual case data show is:

Three new cases attributed to 21 Apr (all 3 of them Probable!)
One new case attributed to 22 Apr (Confirmed).
- The above four are new, as there were no 21 Apr cases in the data released yesterday (21 Apr). And none of the four are international travel cases
There is also a reduction of one local case that previously had a date of 19 Apr (Probable), so I assume that is where the net 3 increase in local cases comes from; ie. 3 new Probable cases, 1 new Confirmed, minus 1 previous Probable case removed.
One travel case added to the total for 16 Apr.
Two travel cases added to the total for 14 Apr.
Some other +1 & -1 on earlier dates but they cancel out and do not appear to be new cases

So 'new' cases appear to be 3 travel (C - but from several days ago), 1 non-travel (C), 3 non-travel (P), minus 1 non-travel (P)

In addition, a net of 2 older Probable cases appear to have been changed to Confirmed, so net there was no increase in Probable cases (as per the website). So yes, net change was 6 Confirmed.

But it is not correct to say that all the new cases were Confirmed.

And a bit misleading to say there were 6 new cases yesterday (only 3 yesterday, 1 this morning, and a net of 2 that had test results several days ago were added to the list). More correct to say, that the "Change in last 24 hours" was 6 cases (as it does on the website).

Maybe it is subtle but attributing to the correct date makes the trend in case numbers clearer (#2467816).

...

The 'real' change in local cases was 3, though in fact there were 4 new local cases (net 3 because an earlier local Probable case was removed). But the more realistic number for new local cases over the 24 hours to 9 am, 22 Apr was 4.

tdgeek

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#2468168 23-Apr-2020 06:20

frednz:

tdgeek:

As to Hendy saying that its likely that every case will be removed by extending L4 by 14 days thats rubbish. Sounds easy if you say it fast. If it was that easy we would extend L4, then easy, all over. No, its a marathon. Most of it is wiped out, it will take time to completely remove it, how they will do that has been widely stated.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks?=app-android

From the above:

He (University of Auckland Professor Shaun Hendy) told Stuff his modelling predicted that with about two weeks more of level four lockdown New Zealand would be enough to get down to zero new daily cases, or just one or two.

So, he did acknowledge that even with two weeks or more of Level 4 lockdown there could be one or two new daily cases, he didn't say that every case will be removed by extending Level 4 by 14 days.

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

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#2468263 23-Apr-2020 08:16

tdgeek:

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

Apparently, Government has confidence in the work of Professor Hendy’s Auckland University team as they take into account their modelling data when making decisions.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414627/lifting-covid-19-lockdown-long-weekend-breaks-a-risky-thing-to-do-virus-modeller

From the above:

e Pūnaha Matatini, the centre for research excellence that Hendy leads, studies complex systems and networks. He and the centre's other researchers have been working for weeks to predict how Covid-19's web of infection might spread - and if it's possible to slow it down or even stop it.

Asked if it was realistic to eliminate the disease, he said: "I think so, we shouldn't underestimate the challenge. If we do do this, we'd be the first country in the world to do it but certainly the modelling suggests it's possible and some of the public health specialists, epidemiologists think it's possible ... so put those two things together, and yes I think there is a good chance we could be the first country in the world to eliminate it."

Nevertheless, Professor Hendy has definitely warned of the need for caution and the possibility of a potential “bounce-back” in cases:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12323880

From the above:

Early modelling by Hendy and colleagues suggested that New Zealand could have been facing between 10,000 and 80,000 deaths, had it been forced to choose between the strategies of suppression or mitigation, that other countries have been left with.

The fact that New Zealand had moved in time to pursue its "elimination" strategy – and that its lockdown was now showing a big effect – meant such worst-case scenarios were no longer relevant, Hendy said.

But he warned the country still needed to be wary of a potential "bounce-back" in cases, given that very few people have any immunity to the virus.

"The disease could be reintroduced from overseas or it may flare up again in parts of the country," he said.

"If we lift the lockdown too early or slow down on our contact tracing and testing then this is a very real risk. This is even true in countries that have had the worst outbreaks.

"Everyone is going to have to be wary for some time."

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#2468308 23-Apr-2020 08:35

Apparently the Government, and the MoH (who are running this project) take many opinions into account. Hendy will be right, given that he predicts anything from removing every piece of the virus except maybe one or two, in 14 days, to 80,000 deaths. He seems to have a dollar each way on every horse in the race, and covering off every post L4 eventuality...

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Fred99

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#2468313 23-Apr-2020 08:46

Definitely need to look very hard at risks - plug holes - and keep monitoring and testing flat out.
I can't think of any huge holes - like Singapore's foreign worker dorms - but there will be some.
Freezing works / abattoirs have been hot-spots in the USA. Not sure how they compare to NZ WRT hygiene - it's been years since I've visited one here but because we've got very stringent barriers for export they're already part-way to full PPE, constant surface cleaning etc. OTOH the ones I've been to have large canteens where the entire shifts have lunch and smoko breaks together.

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#2468316 23-Apr-2020 08:51

tdgeek:

Apparently the Government, and the MoH (who are running this project) take many opinions into account. Hendy will be right, given that he predicts anything from removing every piece of the virus except maybe one or two, in 14 days, to 80,000 deaths. He seems to have a dollar each way on every horse in the race, and covering off every post L4 eventuality...

No one will predict absolute outcomes and they shouldn't, there are just too many variables.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2468382 23-Apr-2020 09:20

Fred99: From NYT today, IIRC, the recent background death rate with confirmed C-19 deaths subtracted is still about 1/3 higher than normal in most of Europe (depends on country).

Whilst some of those will be unreported c-19 deaths, many will also be deaths due to unavailability of treatment due to the medical system being swamped with c-19 cases. E.g. a car accident where the victim needs ICU care, but the ICU is already full of C-19 patients.

Here in NZ, outpatient clinics and elective care has been suspended; so people are (I assume) not be getting endoscopies, therefore not getting diagnosed with bowel cancer, and subsequently dying of cancer.

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#2468398 23-Apr-2020 09:43

New york Times: Doctor Says He Was Removed From Federal Post After Questioning Hydroxychloroquine Treatment

A doctor says he was removed from his federal post after pressing for rigorous vetting of treatments embraced by President Trump.

The doctor who led the federal agency involved in developing a coronavirus vaccine said on Wednesday that he was removed from his post after he pressed for a rigorous vetting of a coronavirus treatment embraced by President Trump. The doctor said that science, not “politics and cronyism” must lead the way.

Dr. Rick Bright was abruptly dismissed this week as the director of the Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, or BARDA, and as the deputy assistant secretary for preparedness and response.

Instead, he was given a narrower job at the National Institutes of Health. “I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the Covid-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit,” he said in a statement to The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman.

“I am speaking out because to combat this deadly virus, science — not politics or cronyism — has to lead the way,” he said.

...Dr. Bright, who is a career official and not a political appointee, pointed specifically to the initial efforts to make chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine widely available before it was scientifically tested for efficacy with the coronavirus.

“Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit,” he said.

“While I am prepared to look at all options and to think ‘outside the box’ for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public,” Dr. Bright said, describing what ultimately happened: “I insisted that these drugs be provided only to hospitalized patients with confirmed Covid-19 while under the supervision of a physician.

“These drugs have potentially serious risks associated with them, including increased mortality observed in some recent studies in patients with Covid-19.

“Sidelining me in the middle of this pandemic and placing politics and cronyism ahead of science puts lives at risk and stunts national efforts to safely and effectively address this urgent public health crisis,” Dr. Bright said.

“I will request that the inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services investigate the manner in which this administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections and efforts that lack scientific merit,” he said. “Rushing blindly towards unproven drugs can be disastrous and result in countless more deaths. Science, in service to the health and safety of the American people, must always trump politics.”
...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-live-coverage.html

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#2468422 23-Apr-2020 10:04

New York Times: Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say

American officials were alarmed by fake text messages and social media posts that said President Trump was locking down the country. Experts see a convergence with Russian tactics.

The alarming messages came fast and furious in mid-March, popping up on the cellphone screens and social media feeds of millions of Americans grappling with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Spread the word, the messages said: The Trump administration was about to lock down the entire country.

“They will announce this as soon as they have troops in place to help prevent looters and rioters,” warned one of the messages, which cited a source in the Department of Homeland Security. “He said he got the call last night and was told to pack and be prepared for the call today with his dispatch orders.”

The messages became so widespread over 48 hours that the White House’s National Security Council issued an announcement via Twitter that they were “FAKE.”

Since that wave of panic, United States intelligence agencies have assessed that Chinese operatives helped push the messages across platforms, according to six American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to publicly discuss intelligence matters. The amplification techniques are alarming to officials because the disinformation showed up as texts on many Americans’ cellphones, a tactic that several of the officials said they had not seen before.

...Two American officials stressed they did not believe Chinese operatives created the lockdown messages, but rather amplified existing ones. Those efforts enabled the messages to catch the attention of enough people that they then spread on their own, with little need for further work by foreign agents. The messages appeared to gain significant traction on Facebook as they were also proliferating through texts, according to an analysis by The New York Times.

American officials said the operatives had adopted some of the techniques mastered by Russia-backed trolls, such as creating fake social media accounts to push messages to sympathetic Americans, who in turn unwittingly help spread them.

...American officials said China, borrowing from Russia’s strategies, has been trying to widen political divisions in the United States. As public dissent simmers over lockdown policies in several states, officials worry it will be easy for China and Russia to amplify the partisan disagreements.

“It is part of the playbook of spreading division,” said Senator Angus King, independent of Maine, adding that private individuals have identified some social media bots that helped promote the recent lockdown protests that some fringe conservative groups have nurtured.

The propaganda efforts go beyond text messages and social media posts directed at Americans. In China, top officials have issued directives to agencies to engage in a global disinformation campaign around the virus, the American officials said.

...Mr. Trump himself has shown little concern about China’s actions. He has consistently praised the handling of the pandemic by Chinese leaders — “Much respect!” he wrote on Twitter on March 27. Three days later, he dismissed worries over China’s use of disinformation when asked about it on Fox News.

“They do it and we do it and we call them different things,” he said. “Every country does it.”
...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html

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#2468448 23-Apr-2020 10:31

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Apparently the Government, and the MoH (who are running this project) take many opinions into account. Hendy will be right, given that he predicts anything from removing every piece of the virus except maybe one or two, in 14 days, to 80,000 deaths. He seems to have a dollar each way on every horse in the race, and covering off every post L4 eventuality...

No one will predict absolute outcomes and they shouldn't, there are just too many variables.

Except there's kickback against statistical models by the "it's just the flu" and "the (economic) damage is worse than the disease" crowd.

Projected 80,000 deaths in NZ seems like a pretty reasonable worst-case scenario estimate for NZ if it ran rampant.

Then there's the unknown (but probably significant) toll on quality of life from sequelae.

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#2468464 23-Apr-2020 10:55

Fred99:

Projected 80,000 deaths in NZ seems like a pretty reasonable worst-case scenario estimate for NZ if it ran rampant.

Then there's the unknown (but probably significant) toll on quality of life from sequelae.

Although the counterpoint to that is that NZ was always going to implement some form of restrictions, be it social distancing at a minimum,

Its a bit like the Treasury scenario that said we would have unemployment well north of 20% if we have a Level 4 lock down for 6 months, then Level 3 for 6 months more and the government provided no additional stimulus... sure its a possible scenario, but very unlikely...

frankv

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#2468486 23-Apr-2020 11:13

Fred99:
Projected 80,000 deaths in NZ seems like a pretty reasonable worst-case scenario estimate for NZ if it ran rampant.

Then there's the unknown (but probably significant) toll on quality of life from sequelae.

Assuming herd immunity is possible, and that it kicks in at 40% infection rate, and overwhelmed hospitals mean no beds are available, so 10% mortality rate as in northern Italy, the numbers are easy: 4.8M * 0.4 * 0.1 = 192,000

So perhaps he was being optimistic.

Fred99

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#2468490 23-Apr-2020 11:20

wellygary:

Fred99:

Projected 80,000 deaths in NZ seems like a pretty reasonable worst-case scenario estimate for NZ if it ran rampant.

Then there's the unknown (but probably significant) toll on quality of life from sequelae.

Although the counterpoint to that is that NZ was always going to implement some form of restrictions, be it social distancing at a minimum,

Its a bit like the Treasury scenario that said we would have unemployment well north of 20% if we have a Level 4 lock down for 6 months, then Level 3 for 6 months more and the government provided no additional stimulus... sure its a possible scenario, but very unlikely...

That's why I said "if it ran rampant". The problem with the "ease restrictions to save the economy" model - or simply not going hard and fast - is that strategy seems to have been a colossal cock-up elsewhere - considering that we're really just at the start of this global pandemic.

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