2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2429738 1-Mar-2020 19:13

vexxxboy:

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119861726/coronavirus-brian-tamaki-blames-satanic-airborne-demons-drinking-of-bats-blood

Stuff: Coronavirus: Brian Tamaki blames Satanic airborne demons, drinking of bat's blood

Brian Tamaki has always been a dangerous idiot - nothing new here.

Standard Stuff stuff. 😐

Sideface

Rikkitic

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#2429740 1-Mar-2020 19:14

vexxxboy:

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119861726/coronavirus-brian-tamaki-blames-satanic-airborne-demons-drinking-of-bats-blood

"Satan has control of atmospheres unless you're a born-again, Jesus-loving, bible-believing, Holy Ghost-filled, tithe-paying believer," Bishop Tamaki said on Sunday morning.

Yeah, emphasis mine but you gotta have those tithes. And this:

He added: "Im not a PhD but I have the highest doctorates, in whatever you, in the word of God. Nobody bigger in the nation right now."

... [bla bla]...

Interpreting Ephesians 2:2, which refers to "the prince of the power of the air," Tamaki said some evil spirits invaded human bodies.

"Satanic spirits control invisibility on a certain level where they can energise."

Yup. Must be a high doctorate, all right.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

debo

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#2429741 1-Mar-2020 19:15

mattwnz:

Yes that is a good point. It is possible there will be a vaccine, but that could be at least a year away. But not all the world will be able to get this such as some third world countries, unless someone funds it. People will need to add that to the list of vaccines they need to get. Plus we don't know if it isn't mutating. We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold.

It is cold climate third world countries that will be hid hardest by this. Most northern hemisphere should be ok as they are now entering spring but it will be a close call if they can not delay its arrival for a month or two. There will be a vaccine for their next winter.

NZ and other southern hemisphere countries are facing a different situation. We seam to be just delaying its arrival for the moment. If it arrives in June and there are no vaccines by then then many people will die. There are also medications being tested against fighting the infections so the death rate might yet drop.

There has been vaccines develop already. These are new style RNA vaccines that have yet to be tested against any type of viruses let alone the corona virus.

kingdragonfly

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#2429742 1-Mar-2020 19:21

I'm not going to provide any links, because I don't want to encourage anyone to give this other religious idiot any clicks.

Brian stole the idea of "PS-91 protection policy" from "Joseph Prince Ministries," who promises that prayer (and a generous donation) will prevent any viruses.

In October 2014, a list published by entertainment website richestlifestyle.com placed Prince as the 10th richest pastor in the world, with a reported net worth of 7 million NZD, which is exceptional since his salary is report to be "only" $700,000 NZD/year.

Fox News has provided him with free commercials, sorry I mean "news coverage", in the past.

Brian just wants a little taste of Joseph 's fleecing of the flocks.

Fred99

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#2429745 1-Mar-2020 19:38

debo:

Fred99:

Epidemiology 101. The 1918 flu pandemic probably reached ~50% infection rate globally - and that happened before people routinely flew around the planet on airliners and population density was far lower than it is now.

So why is the rate of new cases slowing in China? If what you say is true then there will have to be 18k new cases in Wuhan every day to reach a 50% infection rate with in a year. Your click-bate figures does not reflect reality.

You said it yourself:

"China had to take extreme measures..."

They're not "my" click-bate <SIC> figures.

Not sure where you're being informed, but you'd probably do yourself and everybody else you talk to a favour by learning a bit about it before accusing others of spreading misinformation.

Fred99

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#2429748 1-Mar-2020 19:50

debo:

It is cold climate third world countries that will be hid hardest by this.

You realise that the "cold climate" hypothesis may be nothing more than coincidence - based on how outbreaks out of China have followed travel patterns, that the Southern Hemisphere only constitutes ~12% of the world population, and that many hot tropical countries are poor with inadequate public health systems - that probably wouldn't notice an outbreak until it was way too late to contain it? Look at Italy - it's clearly been there for very many weeks, it's "first world" especially in the North, and they had no idea the extent of the problem until people started dying about 9 days ago.

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Mahon

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#2429749 1-Mar-2020 19:57

Sideface:

vexxxboy:

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119861726/coronavirus-brian-tamaki-blames-satanic-airborne-demons-drinking-of-bats-blood

+1

Stuff: Coronavirus: Brian Tamaki blames Satanic airborne demons, drinking of bat's blood

Brian Tamaki has always been a dangerous idiot - nothing new here.

Standard Stuff stuff. 😐

He is just pissed cause his wife got kicked from Dancing WT Stars..or w/e it is called.

debo

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#2429816 1-Mar-2020 21:32

Fred99:

debo:

So why is the rate of new cases slowing in China? If what you say is true then there will have to be 18k new cases in Wuhan every day to reach a 50% infection rate with in a year. Your click-bate figures does not reflect reality.

You said it yourself:

"China had to take extreme measures..."

They're not "my" click-bate <SIC> figures.

Not sure where you're being informed, but you'd probably do yourself and everybody else you talk to a favour by learning a bit about it before accusing others of spreading misinformation.

I am getting my info from here.

Notice the numbers of new cases. You need much higher infection rates get to 50% of the populations. Most of china does not have extreme measures. To get to 50% of mainland china you will need 1.7 million cases every day for a year to get to 50%. I'll be interested in seeing if you have other data showing the millions of missing cases.

"cold climate" hypothesis" - I mean that the normal flu is seasonal hitting mainly in winter. I thought the corrona virus would follow the same pattern. Is that not the case?

Scott3

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#2429835 1-Mar-2020 22:41

My wild estimate 69,000 dead (plus deaths from other things due to hospital overcrowding) was based on Mark Richardson, equally wild suggestion: "let’s all get it, get on with it and get over it, that’s the best way to deal with it"

My 60% infection rate was admittedly a wild guess. Spanish flu (with a comparable r0) infected 1/3 of the world, so I figured we could easy double that by actively trying to infect people.

My number for the NZ population is close enough, and the 2.3% mortality rate seems to be backed by research: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

Mortality does seem to be much lower in locations where there are amply ICU beds, and much higher where ICU's are over-run (i.e. wuhan) NZ would be the latter situation.

I should note, There is no evidence of immunity, after having COVID-19, so if we infect our country, people could keep getting re-infected.

I also note that some of the recovered people have had their lungs seriously damaged by the pathogen, and go home needing oxygen to breath.

tdgeek:

No

China 1,700,000,000 population 340 times NZ

Its been there since November, not Dec 31, the official announcement date

80,000+ infections

2700 fatalities.

Thats in the country where it started and had a head start. You could divide China's stats by 340 to get an equivalent number. Plus we don't live with thousands of people per hectare of city land.

Firstly it's not over yet in china. Secondly they have aggressively worked to stop the spread of the virus. Thirdly it is widely suspected that the data is under-reported.

frednz:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/02/coronavirus-lance-o-sullivan-admits-he-got-it-wrong-in-playing-down-fears-says-thousands-could-die-here.html

The above article discusses the likely death rate from COVID-19:

Last time former New Zealander of the Year Lance O'Sullivan was on The AM Show, he called the media reaction to the growing coronavirus threat "a lot of hysteria, a beat-up".

Now he's fearing COVID-19 could kill thousands of New Zealanders if it comes here, with our health system underprepared for the influx of potentially tens of thousands of patients.

If the virus gets loose in New Zealand, based on what we've seen so far, it's likely at least 5000 people would die - and that's a conservative estimate based on what happened on the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship on which the virus ran rampant.

Even if New Zealand's high-quality health system manages to keep the death toll down, the Diamond Princess experience suggests around 40,000 people could fall critically ill in an uncontained outbreak.

Thanks for that, quite useful I think the reasoning for a Conservative estimate is pretty good, - but I urge caution extrapolating data from the cruise ship for the following reasons:

The relatively low numbers of sick compared to the surrounding city populations ment that all those that needed ICU care got it. It is rumored the reason for the international evacuation's was that ICU capacity near the ship would start running low if the trend's continued.
Hospitals also had capacity for mildly sick in isolation rooms.
Resources were available to evacuate the healthy when it became clear isolating systems on the ship weren't working.

On the other hand, we know that cruise ships have a bad rep for gastro outbreak's, so hopefully cities are more kind.

mattwnz

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#2429839 1-Mar-2020 23:42

Scott3:

I should note, There is no evidence of immunity, after having COVID-19, so if we infect our country, people could keep getting re-infected.

Yeah. Just because someone gets a cold, or the flu, it doesn't mean they are immune to getting it again. I understand you have to get the flu vaccine every year if you want to minimise your risk of getting the flu.

I thought it was interesting the air pollution maps over China. It was shocking to see how little pollution there currently is during the shutdown in China.

Sidestep

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#2429852 2-Mar-2020 06:18

debo:

I am getting my info from here.

The yellow dotted line "other cases" is the important one. At the moment it's trajectory is the same as the early stages of the orange line (until China - through extreme measures - lopped the top off). And which may - or may not continue to decline once quarantine becomes less restrictive and people go back to work. If the yellow line doesn't continue to curve up, and the orange one remains flat, the Chinese - through their heroic efforts - have bought the world some time.

debo:

"cold climate" hypothesis" - I mean that the normal flu is seasonal hitting mainly in winter. I thought the corrona virus would follow the same pattern. Is that not the case?

Deutsche Welle has published an article quoting Thomas Pietschmann, a virologist at 'Twincore', in Germany about his hope that warm weather may slow the spread of COVID-19
He's clear that they're basing this on the seasonality of Influenza infections - as do Paul Hunter (UEA) and Simon Clarke (UofR) in this Reuters report on viral spread and temperature.

The DW article also points to a hypothesis that females may be less affected than males due to there being estrogen binding sites on some immune system genes.
There are other studies proposing that this changing balance of estrogen and testosterone may also be why younger people are less affected.

There is no vaccine yet - and unless special exemptions are allowed to expedite the jump from research to large human trials - it'll be a while before one comes.

There are several efforts underway to develop COVID-19 vaccines. Moderna Therapeutics, as mentioned in this Time article is the closest to human testing so far.
An experimental Ebola treatment - Remdesivir (not yet licensed or approved) developed by Gilead Sciences is about to start Chinese human trials after an experimental use combined with other drugs, on a couple of cases in the US seemed to show results. Another trial drug is to be tested on 28 patients in China. (Edit: that's APN01 Gilead's going to trial Remdesivir on 1,000) Gilead's share price has jumped, because if this works they're not going to be giving it away.

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tdgeek

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#2429856 2-Mar-2020 07:09

mattwnz:

I thought it was interesting the air pollution maps over China. It was shocking to see how little pollution there currently is during the shutdown in China.

It is. But we need to realise that a huge amount of that pollution is ours, given that they export so much and us first world countries consume so much of it

Fred99

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#2429877 2-Mar-2020 08:41

Sidestep:

debo:

I am getting my info from here.

The yellow dotted line "other cases" is the important one. At the moment it's trajectory is the same as the early stages of the orange line (until China - through extreme measures - lopped the top off). And which may - or may not continue to decline once quarantine becomes less restrictive and people go back to work. If the yellow line doesn't continue to curve up, and the orange one remains flat, the Chinese - through their heroic efforts - have bought the world some time.

This is a better chart if you want to look at trends. The scale on the Johns Hopkins website chart is way too small to see what's going on outside China or even inside China. About 90% of the world cases are in China, most in Hubei. These charts (including the Johns Hopkins chart) show that containment by extreme lockdown measures seems to work. Parts of China are "getting back to work", Hubei remains shut down - to be reviewed on 10 March. The "rest of world" figures have the same issue that applied for figures coming out of China a month ago - they're subject to inaccuracy due to how thoroughly new cases are being identified, and "catch-up" because outbreaks haven't been noticed until there have been many cases. So using charts and figures to predict what is going to happen is fraught with problems - but it looks like if trends continue then China's actions bought time, but won't stop exponential growth in case numbers unless there are lockdowns in other places where there are outbreaks.

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#2429880 2-Mar-2020 09:00

Nice simply explained information, in a short video, from the BBC's medical correspondent Fergus Walsh.

Coronavirus in the UK: 5 things you need to know about Covid-19

Remember that the UK is also an island nation and can easily shut its borders, though New Zealand would have better success I believe.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2429884 2-Mar-2020 09:24

40 page report from WHO on joint mission in China 14-20 Feb:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

(I didn't realise that China had relented and allowed WHO access).

There's some interesting stuff in there. For example:

The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare - and most of them fall ill in the next few days.

(The thought that there were probably very many asymptomatic cases was being widely suggested as a reason that true case fatality rate was possibly being vastly overstated. )

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