2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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7296 posts

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#2515657 1-Jul-2020 14:00

Batman:

"there were still 367 people that had been through managed isolation who were unable to be contacted by health authorities. He made a fresh appeal for anyone in that group to phone Healthline."

do you know what that means?

That a percentage of self righteous gits think it's funny to give false details to authorities cause the world is surely only against them and going to do nothing but bad with their details

ezbee

2405 posts

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#2515659 1-Jul-2020 14:08

Oblivian:

Batman:

"there were still 367 people that had been through managed isolation who were unable to be contacted by health authorities. He made a fresh appeal for anyone in that group to phone Healthline."

do you know what that means?

That a percentage of self righteous gits think it's funny to give false details to authorities cause the world is surely only against them and going to do nothing but bad with their details

Well I'd be kind by making public announcement to come forward in 24 hours or names will have to be published to protect your fanau and community.

We are concerned you might be in dire need of help if we can't contact you.

Its the kind thing to do.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2515662 1-Jul-2020 14:19

tdgeek:

robjg63: I don't see how anyone can make a "plan" based on the uncertainties at the moment.
At best you could make a woolly set of aspirations.
What use is that?

Sums it up succinctly.

If there were possible plans, we would hear about them from the media, the number of medical people not directly involved but who have been in the media, the Opposition, and anyone else, but no one has put forward a plan. Because there is no vaccine and because there is no 60 minute test available which would allow flights in. Its patently obvious to anyone, surely.

Based on the EU opening up Europe to tourist, and ONLY allowing those countries that have infection rates that are similar or less than europes own rates , I don't see how NZ can act any differently. eg We can only open up to countries that have also eliminated it, and have that as a policy. eg some Pacific islands so far, and maybe Tasmania and afew other Oz states, if elimination becayse Australias policy. But I haven't really heard any politicians come out and say this. They seem to be skirting around it. I think the PM has been the most realistic, and has said that it is in Australias hands.

Also this new Melbourne outbreak should be a bit of a wakeup call for NZ, considering they understand that it may have been caused by their quarantine hotels and security guards not following protocols, as reported last night on One News late edition. If NZ gets a reoccurance, it will likely be due to some hole in our managed isolation/ quarantine system.

Also no update on the MOH website today on the numbers.

DS248

1691 posts

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#2515666 1-Jul-2020 14:25

For those unimpressed by Victoria's new area lockdown, be aware of this comment from Bloomfield this morning

"We would be looking to use exactly these sorts of measures and approaches [being used in Melbourne] to avoid having to put the whole country up an alert level."

frankv

5680 posts

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#2515682 1-Jul-2020 14:44

Geektastic:

We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.

We're in a liferaft in a raging storm. The plan at the moment is to keep the liferaft afloat. Asking for a plan of how we can tie up to another ship is ridiculous. Especially since we don't know whether that ship will be afloat or not.

tdgeek

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#2515683 1-Jul-2020 14:44

mattwnz:

Based on the EU opening up Europe to tourist, and ONLY allowing those countries that have infection rates that are similar or less than europes own rates , I don't see how NZ can act any differently. eg We can only open up to countries that have also eliminated it, and have that as a policy. eg some Pacific islands so far, and maybe Tasmania and afew other Oz states, if elimination becayse Australias policy. But I haven't really heard any politicians come out and say this. They seem to be skirting around it. I think the PM has been the most realistic, and has said that it is in Australias hands.

Also this new Melbourne outbreak should be a bit of a wakeup call for NZ, considering they understand that it may have been caused by their quarantine hotels and security guards not following protocols, as reported last night on One News late edition. If NZ gets a reoccurance, it will likely be due to some hole in our managed isolation/ quarantine system.

Skirting around it as they know there is only one option, what we are doing. But to garner brownie points in an election year they need something. Same as QLD Premier, she is whining, they have an election soon.

Re Vic outbreak, not the same as here. Before the outbreak, CT is common, 10.1% is CT in AUS. Unknown source of infection. IIRC the outbreak numbers in Vic are heavily CT. Their loose lockdown levels, cafes, haircuts, which causes general apathy has meant that elimination or even a low level of infection could never happen, there are always plenty of hosts, the only option was no hosts which is what our plan is.

Plus, literally from day one here, MoH always had the call that this will be here for a long time, and there will be outbreaks here, he even reiterated that today. The general public sees today as near the end, but MoH sees it is not even at the beginning of the end. Its still a BAU fight here.

Its relatively simple. the NZ plan works, keep the feet on the throat. And with no need to individuals to act, its just a border issue. None have got through. If some do, we will ring fence then, perhaps a local area will be locked down, again this plan was news months ago, always is the plan

Do what we are doing

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

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#2515693 1-Jul-2020 15:00

New York Times: We Know How to Beat the Virus. This Is How Republicans Can Do It.

The Senate can take a page from the market economies around the world that managed to fight the pandemic and safely restore normalcy.

By Will Wilkinson and Puja Ohlhaver

The coronavirus is still raging, particularly in states like Texas, Arizona and Florida. We already know what it takes to beat it. We just need to do it.

As infection rates rapidly rise in many red states, Senate Republicans can and should legislate to protect their constituents and their country. It’s good politics to save lives while saving the economy. They can start by taking a page from other advanced market economies that managed to turn the corner on the pandemic and safely restore normalcy. In addition to mask-wearing, these countries have all adopted a strategy to test, trace and isolate the virus out of circulation.

Taiwan was the first country to use it effectively. Applying lessons gleaned from SARS, which emerged in Asia in 2002, Taiwan immediately traced (and closely studied) its first 100 cases. It was able to avoid community spread altogether — topping out at 447 total cases — without a lockdown. South Korea was slower, but eventually suppressed its outbreak to fewer than 13,000 cases without a widespread lockdown. Germany, Australia and New Zealand have all adopted the same strategy to avoid reinstating their lockdowns. By detecting and containing new outbreaks before they spread, these market economies plan to stay open, resilient and competitive, while America’s economy loses ground amid new waves of infection.

Many Republicans think that market incentives and private-sector spending will be enough to drive innovation in diagnostics and therapeutics and to spur manufacturers to finally churn out enough tests. But this is wrong. The private sector alone can’t contain Covid-19.

Stopping disease spread is a classic collective-action problem. Relying on businesses and institutions like churches and possibly schools to stop the spread of an infectious disease is akin to relying on private security to stop terrorism. The well-to-do have the means to protect themselves with defensive testing, but the rest of us will be left on our own, potentially leaving the disease free to spread through vulnerable communities.

Private institutions then need to spend even more — digging their moats deeper, building their walls higher — to stave off the virus. It’s the worst possible outcome: The disease continues to rampage, costs for defensive testing pile up, social inequities deepen and our sputtering economy never takes off because no one really feels safe.

Private testing, like private security, is inefficient because private institutions lack the intelligence and authority to strategically target and subdue threats beyond their walls.

The proven strategy for virus suppression relies on contact tracing through communities. The bulk of testing is initially aimed at symptomatic individuals in health care settings and likely hot spots, with additional testing in “critical contexts” like nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants susceptible to disease spread. All contacts of any positive case are traced until the chain of transmission yields zero positives. In a successful suppression surge, contact tracing turns up the vast majority of positive cases.

The U.S. strategy should start by breaking states down into colored zones, representing levels of outbreak: green is the safest, followed by yellow, orange and red. The counterintuitive trick is to focus on lower-incidence yellow and orange zones before higher-incidence red zones, because lower-incidence zones require less testing and tracing to stop community spread and can stay open with safety precautions during a surge.

Within a state, just a few months of surging testing and tracing can result in green zones — which means less than one new daily case for every 100,000 people. Once a zone falls into the green, people no longer have to fear outbreaks at school, church or work. To stay green, states maintain a minimum level of testing and tracing to identify and quash new infections before they spread.
...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/opinion/republicans-coronavirus.html

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kingdragonfly

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#2515703 1-Jul-2020 15:18

Washington Post: EU reopens its borders to 14 nations but not to US tourists

The European Union will reopen its borders to travelers from 14 countries, and possibly China soon, the bloc announced Tuesday, but most Americans have been refused entry for at least another two weeks due to soaring coronavirus infections in the U.S.

As Europe’s economies reel from the impact of the coronavirus, southern EU countries like Greece, Italy and Spain are desperate to entice back sun-loving visitors and breathe life into their damaged tourism industries. American tourists make up a big slice of the EU market and the summer holiday season is a key time.

Citizens from the following countries will be allowed into the EU’s 27 members and four other nations in Europe’s visa-free Schengen travel zone:

New Zealand
Algeria
Australia
Canada
Georgia
Japan
Montenegro
Morocco
Rwanda
Serbia
South Korea
Thailand
Tunisia and Uruguay.

The EU said China is “subject to confirmation of reciprocity,” meaning Beijing should lift all restrictions on European citizens entering China before European countries will allow Chinese citizens back in. Millions of travelers who come from Russia, Brazil and India will miss out.

The 31 European countries have agreed to begin lifting restrictions from Wednesday. The list is to be updated every 14 days, with new countries being added or dropped off depending on whether they are keeping the pandemic under control. Non-EU citizens who are already living in Europe are not included in the ban, nor are British citizens.
...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/eu-set-to-publish-border-list-us-likely-to-miss-out-for-now/2020/06/30/aa26e490-baa4-11ea-97c1-6cf116ffe26c_story.html

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2515711 1-Jul-2020 15:25

kingdragonfly:

The Senate can take a page from the market economies around the world that managed to fight the pandemic and safely restore normalcy.

By Will Wilkinson and Puja Ohlhaver

Many Republicans think that market incentives and private-sector spending will be enough to drive innovation in diagnostics and therapeutics and to spur manufacturers to finally churn out enough tests. But this is wrong. The private sector alone can’t contain Covid-19.

Private testing, like private security, is inefficient because private institutions lack the intelligence and authority to strategically target and subdue threats beyond their walls.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/opinion/republicans-coronavirus.html

Wow, Will Wilkinson wrote that.....,

He formally worked at the Economist and was a fellow at the Cato Institute.... Pre-Covid he would have been defrocked and asked to hand in his "Libertarian" card for comments like that... It just shows you how far down the hole the US is and that they see are finally seeing "public health" as a way out...

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2515713 1-Jul-2020 15:29

tdgeek:

Re Vic outbreak, not the same as here. Before the outbreak, CT is common, 10.1% is CT in AUS. Unknown source of infection. IIRC the outbreak numbers in Vic are heavily CT. Their loose lockdown levels, cafes, haircuts, which causes general apathy has meant that elimination or even a low level of infection could never happen, there are always plenty of hosts, the only option was no hosts which is what our plan is.

Plus, literally from day one here, MoH always had the call that this will be here for a long time, and there will be outbreaks here, he even reiterated that today. The general public sees today as near the end, but MoH sees it is not even at the beginning of the end. Its still a BAU fight here.

Its relatively simple. the NZ plan works, keep the feet on the throat. And with no need to individuals to act, its just a border issue. None have got through. If some do, we will ring fence then, perhaps a local area will be locked down, again this plan was news months ago, always is the plan

Do what we are doing

That was my understanding too, but last night they had an official in Oz specifically saying it was due to security guards.

If they are saying that there will be outbreaks here, then aren't they admitting that it will be flaws / holes in our managed isolation/ quarantine systems?
As we have effectively eliminated the virus from the population, there is no other way it can really get in, and they were confident there was no community transmission occurring, which is also backed up by there not being any new local cases for a very long time

IMO if they are anticipating that there are going to be community outbreaks here, I do wonder why were are not in level 2, or 1.5, and requiring people keep track of their activity and still being required to put up QR codes etc. Although I do wonder if part of he reason could be fatigue, and them, waiting to do that until there is a community case. But we need that tracing for when a community case occurs.

duckDecoy

896 posts

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#2515718 1-Jul-2020 15:49

mattwnz:

If NZ gets a reoccurance, it will likely be due to some hole in our managed isolation/ quarantine system.

There's a hole outside the managed isolation/ quarantine system. Flight attendants and pilots are for all intents and purposes exempt.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2515721 1-Jul-2020 15:59

duckDecoy:

mattwnz:

If NZ gets a reoccurance, it will likely be due to some hole in our managed isolation/ quarantine system.

There's a hole outside the managed isolation/ quarantine system. Flight attendants and pilots are for all intents and purposes exempt.

That's been tightened up:

Air crew living in New Zealand and returning from high-risk layovers are required to self-isolate, have a COVID-19
test on day 2 after their arrival in New Zealand and continue to self-isolate until the results of that test have been
returned. Air crew returning from medium-risk and low-risk layovers are not required to isolate or have a test.
Air crew are also required to follow other strict protocols both inflight and during their overseas layovers to protect
themselves against COVID-19. In addition, on arrival to New Zealand, international aircrew undertake a health
declaration and health screen; and use a safe corridor to move through the airport.

...

How are high-risk layovers identified?
The risk assessment is currently undertaken on a case-by-case basis, taking into consideration the length
of time of layover, community transmission, availability of suitable transport and accommodation. There
are three risk levels:
1. Low-risk layovers – these are layovers where there is no overnight stay or where the crew stays airside
in a managed facility. Layovers to Australia and the Pacific are low risk as the crew do not stay
overnight and stay airside throughout.
2. Medium-risk layovers – these are layovers where air crew are staying landside for two nights or less
and there is tightly managed transport to the accommodation and crew. Shanghai is an example of a
medium-risk layover as the crew has to stay two nights or less in a dedicated landside hotel.
3. High-risk layovers – these layovers where air crew are staying landside for three nights or more, or
two nights or less where the transport / accommodation are less tightly controlled.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2515728 1-Jul-2020 16:16

What I have found is really odd and bizarre over the last week, is the US, and some companies I deal with in the USA. It appears some think the worst is over, and they are now getting back to normal. For example one provider I use decided to support businesses by suspending certain requirements. They however will lift those in August as they claim the business climate is normalizing, with things opening up again etc, but living with masks and physical distancing.

But don't they realise that this will likely increase the spread of the virus, and if their health system gets overwhelmed, they risk going back into lockdown again. And how will this physical distancing and living with the virus affect some businesses bottom line, with the restrictions they must cope with.

But the WHO have said the worst is yet to come. It seems some people are living in denial about how bad may get.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2515735 1-Jul-2020 16:29

mattwnz:

But the WHO have said the worst is yet to come.

If it's about the US, then so is Anthony Fauci.

tdgeek

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#2515736 1-Jul-2020 16:29

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Re Vic outbreak, not the same as here. Before the outbreak, CT is common, 10.1% is CT in AUS. Unknown source of infection. IIRC the outbreak numbers in Vic are heavily CT. Their loose lockdown levels, cafes, haircuts, which causes general apathy has meant that elimination or even a low level of infection could never happen, there are always plenty of hosts, the only option was no hosts which is what our plan is.

Plus, literally from day one here, MoH always had the call that this will be here for a long time, and there will be outbreaks here, he even reiterated that today. The general public sees today as near the end, but MoH sees it is not even at the beginning of the end. Its still a BAU fight here.

Its relatively simple. the NZ plan works, keep the feet on the throat. And with no need to individuals to act, its just a border issue. None have got through. If some do, we will ring fence then, perhaps a local area will be locked down, again this plan was news months ago, always is the plan

Do what we are doing

That was my understanding too, but last night they had an official in Oz specifically saying it was due to security guards.

If they are saying that there will be outbreaks here, then aren't they admitting that it will be flaws / holes in our managed isolation/ quarantine systems?
As we have effectively eliminated the virus from the population, there is no other way it can really get in, and they were confident there was no community transmission occurring, which is also backed up by there not being any new local cases for a very long time

IMO if they are anticipating that there are going to be community outbreaks here, I do wonder why were are not in level 2, or 1.5, and requiring people keep track of their activity and still being required to put up QR codes etc. Although I do wonder if part of he reason could be fatigue, and them, waiting to do that until there is a community case. But we need that tracing for when a community case occurs.

Yes, I follow AUS news. Re security guards. The difference is in NZ if a case gets out, it can be managed, as we have seen from the hundreds and hundreds of cases that we had, that had spent time in the community. But in AUS there are infected people in the community right now, and before this outbreak. CT is common.

You cannot 100% guarantee you will see and hold every infection. Managing quarantine is logistically difficult, so its not really admitting anything, its a reality.How good you are means the risk is lower. You can't lock NZ down "just in case one day an infection sneaks through" People wont buy that. Here, we have no cases in the wild. We have 20 odd locked up. If one turned up where I live, my suburb, my town, we may get a L3 for 14 days, people will be highly aware and be strict as we have had a taste before. But as we know humans flout, humans are the risk, not any one process

Here is a true story that fits with this, shows the risk with humans, even if unintentional. I had a surgical procedure last Thursday. Got there at 10am, had to wait till 6-30pm. So I saw the on duty nurse and a couple of others who did pre op stuff. They always ask name and DOB and I also told the the BLA number. However, one popped in to my room, said Hi Donald and commenced to do her thing. I'm not Donald. This could have been at a hotel, re a test and "Donald" is down to already had the 12 day test, so TD sneaks through untested. Release 2 days later. Lovely nurse, I'n sure she is very capable, but it happens. That's a risk you can NEVER avoid.

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