2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2532562 1-Aug-2020 09:38

What I don't understand is why NZ aren't doing sewage testing. We've talked about this a lot for months but we still don't appear to be any closer to actually implementing it. Considering it seems to be pretty accurate it'd seem to be a no brainer for establishing if there is infact any community transmission considering most communities in NZ should not have anybody with or possibly with Covid 19 if we are to believe there is no community transmission in NZ.

I personally believe NZ is becoming a little too cocky - unlike other countries like Australia we had very minimal community transmission even when we went into lockdown. I think we're incredibly naive to think that we'll be able to survive what will realistically be at least another 9-12 months of isolation from the world and not end up with any community transmission. The deaths in Vietnam overnight are all the proof you need that we shouldn't all be living like things are normal and that there are no risks to us.

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#2532572 1-Aug-2020 10:22

mattwnz:

Yes yes.
We know where your concerns stand

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#2532575 1-Aug-2020 10:51

Batman:

how many tests have we done in NZ in recent times?

How big a deal is testing? Apart from MIQ, testing is voluntary. If it was just 600 per day that tells us nothing in a population of 5 million. If it was 6000 per day that also tells us nothing. If you could possibly test everyone in ChCh next Friday afternoon and all came back negative, you could say that ChCh is covid free. That last for a day, as people come in and pop away then return. After a week or so the 500,000 tests mean nothing. Test me today, all clear, I might catch it tomorrow. Tests will come into their own if we get a CT case, thats when it has real purpose.

All you can ask is if you have symptoms get a test. Or you can force it, which is another set of problems.

We have MIQ for 14 days which is not 100% tight. You could make that imprisonment for 21 days to be tighter, not really doable

You can ban all incoming traffic, not really doable.

These factors are a lot of very high fruit, both logistically and probably legally. What we have now is a very high level of mitigation, its not foolproof. We do expect we will see cases internal in NZ, hasn't happened yet, it will happen. I don't see there is a lot more we can do

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#2532588 1-Aug-2020 10:58

The Washington Post - Coronavirus infected scores of children and staff at Georgia sleep-away camp *

today

The finding that children 'might play an important role in transmission’ is likely to fuel debates about whether to reopen schools.

A new report suggests that children of all ages are susceptible to coronavirus infection and may also spread it to others - a finding likely to intensify an already fraught discussion about the risks of sending children back to school this fall.

The analysis, released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, details an outbreak at a sleep-away camp in Georgia last month in which 260 children and staffers - more than three-quarters of the 344 tested - contracted the virus less than a week after spending time together in close quarters.

The children had a median age of 12.

The camp had required all 597 campers and staff members to provide documentation that they had tested negative for the virus before coming.

Staff were required to wear masks, but children were not. ...

* This is a free link.

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#2532590 1-Aug-2020 11:00

sbiddle:

What I don't understand is why NZ aren't doing sewage testing. We've talked about this a lot for months but we still don't appear to be any closer to actually implementing it. Considering it seems to be pretty accurate it'd seem to be a no brainer for establishing if there is infact any community transmission considering most communities in NZ should not have anybody with or possibly with Covid 19 if we are to believe there is no community transmission in NZ.

I personally believe NZ is becoming a little too cocky - unlike other countries like Australia we had very minimal community transmission even when we went into lockdown. I think we're incredibly naive to think that we'll be able to survive what will realistically be at least another 9-12 months of isolation from the world and not end up with any community transmission. The deaths in Vietnam overnight are all the proof you need that we shouldn't all be living like things are normal and that there are no risks to us.

Sewage testing is a good idea. Will it catch anti bodies? If so, it may not be that useful. I dont feel we are cocky at all. Yes, living life as normal, but thats because there is supposedly no CT here. Yes, that will happen as MoH says. It's inevitable. As we are quite conservative, if CT popped up say from that AKL-SYD traveller, testing and tracing will ramp up to fence that off, affected or potential areas in NZ will cause people to take more care. Perhaps, well certainly some local restrictions. That's all we can do

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#2532596 1-Aug-2020 11:19

Sideface:

The Washington Post - Coronavirus infected scores of children and staff at Georgia sleep-away camp *

The finding that children 'might play an important role in transmission’ is likely to fuel debates about whether to reopen schools.

Yes I read that this in bed this morning and I thought DJT is not going to like that one. Another roadblock in his big 'Lets Open Up America' push. But of course it will not be his fault as he has abrogated all responsibility to each individual State. By the way, his son Barron's school, St. Andrew's Episcopal School, will not be fully opening. So lets harm everyone's else kids except his own.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2532600 1-Aug-2020 11:27

While I am going about my business as usual, coaxing Mrs along who this has shaken a bit.

Certainly there are plenty of opportunities for transmission into New Zealand that hopefully we are keeping a very good watch on.
Airport staff, Customs , Agriculture, Cleaners, Aircrews, Freight and Logistics
( There was a story about DHL Pilots threatening to ban flying to Hong Kong as HK wanted to test and quarantine any crew that test positive )
, Shipping , Ports etc.
We have cases in isolation hotels here ( Fresh case every few days ) with security, cleaners , hotel staff, healthcare staff , that are in the community etc.

Hopefully we are not penny pinching in regards to protecting possible vectors of viral entry.

We have confidence in the food system, not due to trust , but due to verification and inspection ,
even to the posters at every food outlet with A, B etc ratings , and inspection dates.

Out there for everyone its all over, so vulnerability to anything that gets past these boarders is huge.
We have all seen examples here of how easy it is, a quarantine Hotel with lax management, a Bar on St Patricks day etc.

People moving in and out and goods moving in and out can be managed , however we do need to manage and resource that management.

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#2532617 1-Aug-2020 12:07

ezbee:

People moving in and out and goods moving in and out can be managed , however we do need to manage and resource that management.

What do you suggest? How tight do you want it? Is it lax management when people smash windows and cut fences to abscond?

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#2532619 1-Aug-2020 12:19

tdgeek:

ezbee:

People moving in and out and goods moving in and out can be managed , however we do need to manage and resource that management.

What do you suggest? How tight do you want it? Is it lax management when people smash windows and cut fences to abscond?

I suppose I go back to the weakness in the Singapore system which was the invisibility of certain workers.
Totally blindsided them , and they are still months later struggling with the results.

There was a news item some weeks ago re cleaners at the Jetpark which is Hotel for tested cases, so covid is there.
This should have had the best procedures, and staff given extra time and capability to care for themselves and do work in more detail.
One could have even expected more monitoring, maybe even an insistence contractor pays well for the risk.
However it seemed to be the same cost constrained once over lightly stuff that haunts cleaners, security etc.

My 'hope' is that powers that be are shining lights in darker corners.

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#2532626 1-Aug-2020 12:30

ezbee:

I suppose I go back to the weakness in the Singapore system which was the invisibility of certain workers.
Totally blindsided them , and they are still months later struggling with the results.

There was a news item some weeks ago re cleaners at the Jetpark which is Hotel for tested cases, so covid is there.
This should have had the best procedures, and staff given extra time and capability to care for themselves and do work in more detail.
One could have even expected more monitoring, maybe even an insistence contractor pays well for the risk.
However it seemed to be the same cost constrained once over lightly stuff that haunts cleaners, security etc.

My 'hope' is that powers that be are shining lights in darker corners.

I wonder what the security and cleaners think? They dont really want to work there. Thats a weakness, and understandable. Watching Sky News AU, Govt telling people to be honest, do the right thing. Its hard if you work in a covid infected environment to expect people to be great, so you need to consider to hire large number of people to watch them. And these people as well as working in a high risk environment, are also working with some people (travellers) who dont care about the rules or risks. As the whole process is not centred around imprisonment, you cannot avoid loose ends. Its no different to Level 4 lockdown, not everyone does it, or does it well, thats because being voluntary you are allowing human variables. You cant fix that.

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#2532653 1-Aug-2020 13:36

tdgeek:

These factors are a lot of very high fruit, both logistically and probably legally. What we have now is a very high level of mitigation, its not foolproof. We do expect we will see cases internal in NZ, hasn't happened yet, it will happen. I don't see there is a lot more we can do

Yeap.

And not sure much can be. It goes back to the original training. Which should have been ingrained by all. Treat others as if they have it.

Victoria is a classic for what happens when you don't remember the baseline rules when only a percentage stay a home when checked on after testing positive. And no-one calls them out on it.

Someone in our office got sent home last week for sneezing and coughing multiple times. That's pretty much how it has to happen. Remind those who are thinking for themselves, And aren't thinking of others.

With the human psyche I imagine any stronger than the 'pleaing' occurring vs pushing for getting that figure up to 3000/day again and producing no hits would just give people more reason for complacency. Whereas there are the odd people in the US and now Queensland that go hell, if there's this many per day popping up again. Perhaps we should too. Which is a positive effect.

Or you get the ones crying fowl at the already in place restrictions get more to cry about if they tighten the screws more.

We saw this with the recent concern (Countdown case?) where the figures spiked. There are people just as concerned. And ready to do their part. But others may need encouragement. Flick the switch on a requirement.. woa nelly.

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#2532660 1-Aug-2020 13:49

arrived from Pakistan via Dubai on 27 July. Both have been in managed isolation in the Sudima in Rotorua and are now being transferred to the quarantine facility in Auckland.

Guess where as of today extended the no negative = no fly to even transit passengers

Future remains to see if any of these stone hopping flights end up with our caught-in-isolation changing.

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#2532723 1-Aug-2020 14:47

"While these results reinforce that the public health risk from this case continues to be low, further contact tracing is taking place"

...

"From Auckland today we can report a steady number of people coming forward at four new model community testing centres which are open till 3pm this afternoon. There's still plenty of capacity across all the centres located at Northcote, Eden Terrace, Henderson and Wiri."

Testing in Christchurch has already been targeted to people who were at the limited number of locations the case visited while staying overnight

...

Just over 3000 tests were taken yesterday

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#2532728 1-Aug-2020 15:06

tdgeek:

I don't see there is a lot more we can do

Except for daily testing of staff and quarantine 'inmates'. There is only so mush one can do to reduce the risk to staff catching covid. However, if we know the day they caught it, then steps can be taken to prevent community spread. That seems to be the cause of Victoria's outbreak. By the time they knew a security staff had caught it, it was already spreading through those tower blacks and then through out Melbourne. Imagine the consequences here, if an infected security personal went to watch a rugby game with 20,000 others. It would be all over for Covid free NZ.

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#2532795 1-Aug-2020 16:19

more about 2nd AKL->Sydney person

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122318573/ive-spent-most-of-my-year-in-lockdown--traveller-first-got-covid19-in-march

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