2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2533346 2-Aug-2020 21:09

loceff13:

Melbourne level 4 restrictions are harsher than we got under level 4, more word on whats deemed non essential tomorrow for business.

Victoria goes into level 3 iirc, metro Melbourne goes to level 4 for 6 weeks.

8PM-5AM curfew - only allowed out to drive to work or seek medical care

One person per household each day doing the daily shopping, must be done within 5km of their home

Groups of 2 max outdoors for working out

Schools closed excl essential workers scools/special needs care

Food delivery pickup/delivery ok if they can manage it safely

if you read the comments from this, i have scrolled a few pages and did not find a single supportive comment - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMs29-OssPQ

mattwnz

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#2533402 3-Aug-2020 00:10

msukiwi:

Yup, Diplomats are low risk - NOT!

It should be one rule for everyone IMO, in this type of situation. This isn't a normal situation after all. The whole point is that this is a virus that is spread by travel, and brought into NZ by people coming into NZ.

I would have hoped that they would voluntarily go into managed isolation anyway. Otherwise can we ban diplomats if they don't want to go into managed isolation?

Victoria have said that 6 week lockdown will be enough. I don't think so, at least not if they want to eliminate it. I suspect they will have more non compliance occurring over there, than we have here, even though they will likely be a lot tougher on their flouters.

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#2533455 3-Aug-2020 07:36

Corona virus fatigue is becoming huge, & not just in Melbourne. Compliance is going to be a massive challenge for governments.

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#2533456 3-Aug-2020 07:41

pvjones: Corona virus fatigue is becoming huge, & not just in Melbourne. Compliance is going to be a massive challenge for governments.

When we do (and I say do because it really is inevitable when we're realistically still looking at 12+ months of being isolated) get the next localised cluster or breakout I feel the level of cockiness we have developed is going to be bad. If NZ ever needed to go back to a lockdown I'm not sure we'd get the same level of compliance we did last time.

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#2533457 3-Aug-2020 07:41

pvjones: Corona virus fatigue is becoming huge, & not just in Melbourne. Compliance is going to be a massive challenge for governments.

There's no way Kiwis would do a Level 4 lock-down again.

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#2533460 3-Aug-2020 07:51

sbiddle:
pvjones: Corona virus fatigue is becoming huge, & not just in Melbourne. Compliance is going to be a massive challenge for governments.

When we do (and I say do because it really is inevitable when we're realistically still looking at 12+ months of being isolated) get the next localised cluster or breakout I feel the level of cockiness we have developed is going to be bad. If NZ ever needed to go back to a lockdown I'm not sure we'd get the same level of compliance we did last time.

This

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#2533462 3-Aug-2020 08:06

In many ways I see parallels with the GFC.

NZ never really suffered during the GFC because our big Australian owned banks were so strong that we weathered the storm and barely suffered compared to most of the world. Right now we think we've won and that we're untouchable. This is despite pretty much every economic indicator showing incredibly worrying signs, and unemployment soaring. I know a few more people out of jobs today, and it really concerns me what out economy is going to be like come Xmas. It's certainly going to be a really shitty Xmas for a lot of NZ families.

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#2533510 3-Aug-2020 08:38

I'm still struggling with how people can think there will never be CT whereas for me it just seems like a statistical inevitability.

trig42

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#2533533 3-Aug-2020 09:10

There will be CT.

The government will have every one of their appendages crossed that it doesn't happen before the election (especially if the media find out that it came out of a MIQ hotel through something that could have been prevented).

I saw an article over the weekend suggesting our only hope will be herd immunity, which means letting it run rampant. Obviously this is bad for those vulnerable to it, but short of a vaccine or effective treatment, it could be the world economy's only hope in the short/medium term.

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#2533540 3-Aug-2020 09:25

trig42:

I saw an article over the weekend suggesting our only hope will be herd immunity, which means letting it run rampant.

No. A vaccine is the only desirable path to herd immunity - and that won't cost tens of thousands of lives.

Fred99

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#2533550 3-Aug-2020 09:31

sbiddle:

In many ways I see parallels with the GFC.

NZ never really suffered during the GFC because our big Australian owned banks were so strong that we weathered the storm and barely suffered compared to most of the world. Right now we think we've won and that we're untouchable. This is despite pretty much every economic indicator showing incredibly worrying signs, and unemployment soaring. I know a few more people out of jobs today, and it really concerns me what out economy is going to be like come Xmas. It's certainly going to be a really sh1tty Xmas for a lot of NZ families.

I agree that it's going to be a slow train-wreck for the economy. It wasn't the banks that saved us, opening the doors to mass immigration boosted the housing market and increased GDP (but decreased GDP per capita). That kept the banks solvent.

Anyway, we're "importing" recession - and there's only a choice between two outcomes:

Have recession - with or without tens of thousands of deaths and sickness. It's a no brainer to keep C-19 out for as long as possible.

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#2533551 3-Aug-2020 09:35

GV27:

pvjones: Corona virus fatigue is becoming huge, & not just in Melbourne. Compliance is going to be a massive challenge for governments.

There's no way Kiwis would do a Level 4 lock-down again.

Well if it's needed again because of CT, then the prize for refusal to do a lockdown is causing the death of tens of thousands of innocent people.

So "freedom fighters" for the right to not be locked down are going to have to be forced to comply.

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#2533558 3-Aug-2020 09:50

sbiddle:

In many ways I see parallels with the GFC.

NZ never really suffered during the GFC because our big Australian owned banks were so strong that we weathered the storm and barely suffered compared to most of the world. Right now we think we've won and that we're untouchable. This is despite pretty much every economic indicator showing incredibly worrying signs, and unemployment soaring. I know a few more people out of jobs today, and it really concerns me what out economy is going to be like come Xmas. It's certainly going to be a really $hitty Xmas for a lot of NZ families.

it will really show up over summer,

Typically Kiwis who holiday in winter tend to do so overseas, they are having to do so at home this year, so they are covering up the missing international tourist in the low season....

BUT.... come summer international tourists will simply not arrive... that's a hole of around 1.5 million visitors spending billions, Kiwis will not be able to make up the difference as they are typically also holidaying locally....

The government is pumping up its "$300 million" package, but over the summer international arrivals spends over $100 million per day...... so the govt's contribution is 3 days of regular income....

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#2533564 3-Aug-2020 10:01

trig42:

There will be CT.

The government will have every one of their appendages crossed that it doesn't happen before the election (especially if the media find out that it came out of a MIQ hotel through something that could have been prevented).

I saw an article over the weekend suggesting our only hope will be herd immunity, which means letting it run rampant. Obviously this is bad for those vulnerable to it, but short of a vaccine or effective treatment, it could be the world economy's only hope in the short/medium term.

Many people don't understand what herd immunity means. Many people just think of it as everybody becoming infected, which is simply not what it means.

We have herd immunity to other viruses and diseases because of either a) vaccines or b) natural immunity built up over time. When a certain percentage of people in the community become immune to virus or diseases due to either of these OR a combination of both it does not mean everybody is immune, but that the virus or disease us unable to spread because the number of high risk people is small, and eventually the disease or virus dies out.

Ultimately the only solution for Covid-19 is herd immunity, and in most countries this will be a combination of natural immunity (which several medical papers have already argued exists in some countries, hence their low spread of Covid-19 and other coronaviruses) and a vaccine.

We've seen reports now of areas such as the slums of Mumbai where case numbers have dropped and antibody testing has shown that potentially over 50% of people have had the disease. This is quite possibly leading to natural herd immunity because the virus is simply got nobody else to infect causing it to die out.

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#2533595 3-Aug-2020 11:08

Fred99:

trig42:

I saw an article over the weekend suggesting our only hope will be herd immunity, which means letting it run rampant.

No. A vaccine is the only desirable path to herd immunity - and that won't cost tens of thousands of lives.

Read this little article this morning on CNN:

Do some people have protection against the coronavirus?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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