2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2555606 2-Sep-2020 13:27

An article from The The Conversation that has nothing exciting to say BUT does have an interesting graph showing the modelling of local case numbers in NZ through September.
Spoiler Alert- expect daily cases all month.

It does attribute the modelling graph by since Shaun Hendy is one of the authors I'm going to assume it is his. It also may just be using Reff numbers to create the curve..

Oblivian

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#2555657 2-Sep-2020 13:32

Yep. The way it's panning out there is a bit much in-between free range gaps short of a full lock-in.

Don't see us going totally 0 for a while again. Hope it's wrong. But 3 weeks on and still popping up

wellygary

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#2555673 2-Sep-2020 14:04

Oblivian:

Yep. The way it's panning out there is a bit much in-between free range gaps short of a full lock-in.

Don't see us going totally 0 for a while again. Hope it's wrong. But 3 weeks on and still popping up

Its tail will be like the national one coming out of level 4, it will drop into low singles but bounce along for a while,

What is good to see is the actives are now starting to shrink reasonably quickly...

Active community cases peaked at 117 on the 29 /30 August, We have now fallen to 94, so hopefully by the end of September we should have only 10-20 actives (or lower) remaining.... (the cluster began on 12 August - or 31 July)

Batman

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#2555686 2-Sep-2020 14:33

does this mean we've given up on elimination? or changing the definition of elimination perhaps

- "as long as the positive cases are linked to known clusters" it is deemed contained

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122637325/coronavirus-auckland-could-leave-covid19-alert-level-2-without-zero-transmission

wellygary

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#2555692 2-Sep-2020 14:39

Batman:

does this mean we've given up on elimination? or changing the definition of elimination perhaps

- "as long as the positive cases are linked to known clusters" it is deemed contained

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122637325/coronavirus-auckland-could-leave-covid19-alert-level-2-without-zero-transmission

Not really,

if the cases being found are "close contacts" and are already either self isolating or are in Managed isolation then it means that the numbers will eventually dry up...

But, If they were talking about allowing the move while they were still finding cases in the "wild" even if they were then linked back- then yeah it would be a shift..

GV27

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#2555706 2-Sep-2020 14:50

I'm not super confident a church group that intentionally breached lockdown is going to comply with requests to stay isolated, or be upfront about their movements. We'll know soon enough, I guess.

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#2555720 2-Sep-2020 15:12

Oblivian:

Someone finally asked why we have open doors and not limit or weekly cap. With the imported cases spiking 240%

Reading between lines it kinda looks like it is to justify the costs of taking over entire hotels. They're 'confident' in the measures and holding that 7000 figure is manageable

As was already mentioned up-thread, we do not have open doors, and haven't had for weeks.

Airlines serving NZ are told a couple of weeks ahead how many seats they can have.
The idea is to keep the hotels already committed to MIQ about 90% full. The government doesn't want to spend any more of your money on renting additional hotels, also finding more suitable places is apparently getting difficult.

freitasm

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#2555724 2-Sep-2020 15:18

Tell me the conference organisers aren't being dicks here:

Asked if he was comfortable with Aucklanders going to conferences in Queenstown, Hipkins said: "No is the simple answer to that.

"We are asking Aucklanders to continue to take their alert level restrictions with them."

The alert level restrictions in Auckland meant people should not be attending gatherings of more than 10 people in the city, he said.

"So if Aucklanders are travelling to other parts of the country the same rules should apply."

The Government was asking for "goodwill" from Aucklanders, he said.

"We are asking for Aucklanders to play their part as they have done over the last three weeks in keeping the country safe.

"There is never going to be a 100 per cent enforceable system when it comes to these types of restrictions so we are asking people to do the right thing."

Morgo [in Queenstown] conference organiser Jenny Morel did not say how many Aucklanders were attending the event, but pointed out rules on the Government's Unite against Covid-19 website and said visits to public and event venues were not "social gatherings".

This specifically included visits to conference venues.

"It is social gatherings that are restricted to 10 people in Auckland and therefore of concern to the Government," Morel said.

"However, events such as Morgo — conferences — are not restricted beyond the standard Level 2 protocols and allow for 100 people anywhere in New Zealand.

"This means that we could even run Morgo with 100 people in Auckland in compliance with the regulations.

"The travel requirements also say don't travel to events that don't meet the Level 2 requirements, which Morgo does," Morel said.

There was no reference to mass gatherings on the Government website, which instead talked about limits on social gatherings.

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#2555728 2-Sep-2020 15:22

Mentioned in New York Times: Face Shields and Valved Masks Offer More Comfort but Less Protection

Face Shield or Face Mask to Stop the Spread of COVID-19?

Florida Atlantic University

illustrates why face shields alone don’t work

PolicyGuy

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#2555734 2-Sep-2020 15:27

GV27:

I'm not super confident a church group that intentionally breached lockdown is going to comply with requests to stay isolated, or be upfront about their movements. We'll know soon enough, I guess.

"intentionally breached lockdown"? Says who?

I heard one reporter say that they had been told that there were some meetings held in homes.
The next day, I read that the church leaders denied that there had been any official meetings. I'm certainly not aware of any official confirmation of that story.

On the other had, I expect that that group of people will contain a statistically-consistent proportion of people who believe that "Covid is just like the flu, really" and/or "Well I'm careful, so it won't happen to me" and/or "I've been meeting every week for the last five years with x & y & z and their families, and I'm not letting them down now".
They may well have got together in unwisely large numbers, but some people just don't get this whole lockdown thing.

kingdragonfly

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#2555736 2-Sep-2020 15:32

New York Times: U.S. Coronavirus Rates Are Rising Fast Among Children

As some schools begin in-person classes, data compiled by the American Academy of Pediatrics from the summer show that cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the coronavirus have increased at a faster rate in children and teenagers than among the general public.

Young children seem to catch and transmit the virus less than adults, and children of all ages tend not to experience severe complications from it. But Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice chairman of the American Academy of Pediatrics’ committee on infectious diseases, said that substantial community spread in many parts of the United States corresponded with more infections among children.

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cshwone

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#2555738 2-Sep-2020 15:33

PolicyGuy:

GV27:

I'm not super confident a church group that intentionally breached lockdown is going to comply with requests to stay isolated, or be upfront about their movements. We'll know soon enough, I guess.

"intentionally breached lockdown"? Says who?

I heard one reporter say that they had been told that there were some meetings held in homes.
The next day, I read that the church leaders denied that there had been any official meetings.

On 1 News last night when they covered the story it was the use of the word "official" that jumped out to me. Church leaders denying any responsibility for what their parishioners did "unofficially"

kingdragonfly

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#2555740 2-Sep-2020 15:35

Did the church leaders say "it's in God's hands?"

wellygary

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#2555743 2-Sep-2020 15:40

freitasm:

Tell me the conference organisers aren't being dicks here:

Asked if he was comfortable with Aucklanders going to conferences in Queenstown, Hipkins said: "No is the simple answer to that.

"We are asking Aucklanders to continue to take their alert level restrictions with them."

The alert level restrictions in Auckland meant people should not be attending gatherings of more than 10 people in the city, he said.

In this case Hipkins is plain wrong, (according to the published rules) - whether it should be 10 is another matter...

The limit of10 only apply to social gatherings....
Conferences (even in Auckland) are not social gatherings

https://covid19.govt.nz/everyday-life/gatherings-and-events/

Gatherings and events at Alert Level 2 for the Auckland region
Public and event venues

Visits to public and event venues are not social gatherings. This means public and event venues can have up to 100 customers within any defined space.

Public and event venues include:

restaurants and cafes
swimming pools and gyms
libraries, and museums
cinemas, theatres, stadiums, concert venues
conference venues
casinos.

You should keep 1 metre physical distance from people you don’t know.

freitasm

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#2555745 2-Sep-2020 15:42

Sure, but I still think the conference going ahead is a dick move. And that's my opinion.

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