EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

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#2328325 2-Oct-2019 10:31

tdgeek:

Coon:

i just watched this video today

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/electric-buses-are-taking-over-china-and-the-us-is-trying-to-catch-up.html

mirror: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wWJW4WJzd0

Cool, but the last sentence, zero carbon transmission system as well. Not if they fire the charges by coal.

NYC is not that big. To move the buses to electric will take 21 years. A weak target.

BUt a plan to transition to electric by 2040 is better than no plan at all.

The problem with just going out and buying a fleet of zero emission electric buses, is to an organisation there would by 2 costs. 1 being the purchase price, and the other being the write off of the existing fleet.

Whereas, with a plan, costs can be managed much better, as vehicle on the fleet reach the end of there useful life, they can be replaced with electric, and gradually the fleet transitions to electric.

tdgeek

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#2328334 2-Oct-2019 10:54

WyleECoyoteNZ:

tdgeek:

Coon:

i just watched this video today

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/electric-buses-are-taking-over-china-and-the-us-is-trying-to-catch-up.html

mirror: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wWJW4WJzd0

Cool, but the last sentence, zero carbon transmission system as well. Not if they fire the charges by coal.

NYC is not that big. To move the buses to electric will take 21 years. A weak target.

BUt a plan to transition to electric by 2040 is better than no plan at all.

The problem with just going out and buying a fleet of zero emission electric buses, is to an organisation there would by 2 costs. 1 being the purchase price, and the other being the write off of the existing fleet.

Whereas, with a plan, costs can be managed much better, as vehicle on the fleet reach the end of there useful life, they can be replaced with electric, and gradually the fleet transitions to electric.

Lost my post grrr

How long is a bus's economic life? 6 years before repairs and refurbishment cost too much? Take a stand make it 4. While a citizen may yet be unable to afford and EV, NYC can. There are many reasons why cars in NZ will take a long time to transition, but that doesnt apply to buses in NYC in my opinion

kingdragonfly

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#2328344 2-Oct-2019 11:22

While using coal to produce electricity to power EV's is not ideal it's better than thousand of tiny ineffencient engines burning petrol.

Current Chinese domestic oil production is not expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day this year, while the country imports more than 10 million barrels per day.

China is making a wise decision to try to wean itself off of imported oil, something we should do ourselves.

We are a net importer of oil, but we are blessed with many renewable energy sources, including geothermal.

Every time someone sneezes in a oil producing center, the rest of the world's economies catch a cold.

We're also funding terrorism by supporting oppressive oil regimes, from Russia to Saudi Arabia.

EV's improve the world more than just climate change.

A bit unrelated, here's an article called "The Oil Curse: A Remedial Role for the Oil Industry" from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

old3eyes

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#2328465 2-Oct-2019 14:17

tdgeek:

WyleECoyoteNZ:

tdgeek:

Coon:

i just watched this video today

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/electric-buses-are-taking-over-china-and-the-us-is-trying-to-catch-up.html

mirror: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wWJW4WJzd0

Cool, but the last sentence, zero carbon transmission system as well. Not if they fire the charges by coal.

NYC is not that big. To move the buses to electric will take 21 years. A weak target.

BUt a plan to transition to electric by 2040 is better than no plan at all.

The problem with just going out and buying a fleet of zero emission electric buses, is to an organisation there would by 2 costs. 1 being the purchase price, and the other being the write off of the existing fleet.

Whereas, with a plan, costs can be managed much better, as vehicle on the fleet reach the end of there useful life, they can be replaced with electric, and gradually the fleet transitions to electric.

Lost my post grrr

How long is a bus's economic life? 6 years before repairs and refurbishment cost too much? Take a stand make it 4. While a citizen may yet be unable to afford and EV, NYC can. There are many reasons why cars in NZ will take a long time to transition, but that doesnt apply to buses in NYC in my opinion

The maximum allowed age of NZ's city bus fleet is 20 years. I would expect NYC to be the same.

Regards,

Old3eyes

WyleECoyoteNZ

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#2328472 2-Oct-2019 14:33

tdgeek:

Lost my post grrr

How long is a bus's economic life? 6 years before repairs and refurbishment cost too much? Take a stand make it 4. While a citizen may yet be unable to afford and EV, NYC can. There are many reasons why cars in NZ will take a long time to transition, but that doesnt apply to buses in NYC in my opinion

I'd argue a buses useful life is closer to 10-15 years

https://sites.google.com/site/mtanewyorkcitybusroster/all-active-bus-fleet

https://mtanyctransitfanon.fandom.com/wiki/MTA_Regional_Bus_Operations_bus_fleet_(mtamaster_edition)

Looking at the sites above, NYC bus fleet is somewhere between 5,700 - 6000 buses, which does seem a lot.

And say a new electric bus costs somewhere north of $250,000 a bus, to replace the entire fleet, you are looking at over a 1.4 billion dollars. Then factor in the writing off the existing fleet, maybe a quarter of the replacement cost, you then up for some serious costs

tdgeek

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#2328492 2-Oct-2019 14:54

old3eyes:

The maximum allowed age of NZ's city bus fleet is 20 years. I would expect NYC to be the same.

Wow ok. I expect NZ to have old gear, but the US? Apart from the school buses which appear ancient

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tdgeek

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#2328497 2-Oct-2019 14:59

Yes thats lot of buses for NYC, I cant recall seeing any when I was last there, not that I looked.

old3eyes

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#2328506 2-Oct-2019 15:09

tdgeek:

old3eyes:

The maximum allowed age of NZ's city bus fleet is 20 years. I would expect NYC to be the same.

Wow ok. I expect NZ to have old gear, but the US? Apart from the school buses which appear ancient

You haven't seen the "lowest tender" ancient school buses here in NZ. They are way over 30 years old and / or Jap imports.

Regards,

Old3eyes

wellygary

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#2328520 2-Oct-2019 15:28

WyleECoyoteNZ:

I'd argue a buses useful life is closer to 10-15 years

https://sites.google.com/site/mtanewyorkcitybusroster/all-active-bus-fleet

https://mtanyctransitfanon.fandom.com/wiki/MTA_Regional_Bus_Operations_bus_fleet_(mtamaster_edition)

Looking at the sites above, NYC bus fleet is somewhere between 5,700 - 6000 buses, which does seem a lot.

And say a new electric bus costs somewhere north of $250,000 a bus, to replace the entire fleet, you are looking at over a 1.4 billion dollars. Then factor in the writing off the existing fleet, maybe a quarter of the replacement cost, you then up for some serious costs

250K, cough, its NY and its a public authority, every teamster and their uncle will have their finger in that action.. :)

This paper from Columbia Uni (requested by NY transit,) estimates the average cost of an Electric Bus for NYC at 800K, so the capital cost is like $4.5 billion....

There is a 300K USD price premium of Electric over Diesel

As an aside, NYC aim to retire buses after 12 years

http://electricschoolbuscampaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Electric-Bus-Analysis-for-NYC-Transit.pdf

kingdragonfly

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#2328579 2-Oct-2019 16:53

Credit where credit's due. The "Electric School Bus Campaign" is giving the full picture.

As mentioned many times already, everywhere has an underdeveloped electric bus manufacturing, but China.

It's not helped that China manufactures the buses and batteries, and can cheaply transport them to the users too.

NzBeagle

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#2328583 2-Oct-2019 16:56

kingdragonfly: ... everywhere has an underdeveloped electric bus manufacturing, but China.

Apart from Tesla, and even they're a drop in the bucket (volume), I think China is leading everything electric.

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Linuxluver

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#2328592 2-Oct-2019 17:15

NzBeagle:
kingdragonfly: ... everywhere has an underdeveloped electric bus manufacturing, but China.

Apart from Tesla, and even they're a drop in the bucket (volume), I think China is leading everything electric.

Yes. Within China, China are still the biggest EVs makers in the world.

Outside China, Tesla is the largest... And will be for some time to come because they make their own batteries.

I think about 400 Tesla Model 3 cars were delivered in NZ in September. Plus 61 in August. In terms of nrw cars in NZ, that's a lot. It will settle back a bit now, there are now already over 1,000 Tesla cars in NZ of all versions.

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kingdragonfly

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#2331522 6-Oct-2019 17:57

Wired
Tesla May Soon Have a Battery That Can Last a Million Miles

Elon Musk promised Tesla would soon have a million-mile battery, more than double what drivers can expect today. A new paper suggests he wasn't exaggerating.

Last April, Elon Musk promised that Tesla would soon be able to power its electric cars for more than 1 million miles over the course of their lifespan. At the time, the claim seemed a bit much. That’s more than double the mileage Tesla owners can expect to get out of their car’s current battery packs, which are already well beyond the operational range of most other EV batteries. It just didn’t seem real—except now it appears that it is.

Earlier this month, a group of battery researchers at Dalhousie University, which has an exclusive agreement with Tesla, published a paper in The Journal of the Electrochemical Society describing a lithium-ion battery that “should be able to power an electric vehicle for over 1 million miles” while losing less than 10 percent of its energy capacity during its lifetime.
...
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-may-soon-have-a-battery-that-can-last-a-million-miles/

Dinga96

123 posts

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#2335354 11-Oct-2019 08:35

I read in the paper this morning a certain EV has come in at No.7 on the top ten car sales for September!

I suspect If you discounted rental sales it would have done even better. Of course I would not believe the model 3 could keep this up and this is only a one off.

Or could it hold its placing maybe, October too, after that though unlikely.

Linuxluver

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#2335358 11-Oct-2019 08:47

Dinga96:
I read in the paper this morning a certain EV has come in at No.7 on the top ten car sales for September!

I suspect If you discounted rental sales it would have done even better. Of course I would not believe the model 3 could keep this up and this is only a one off.

Or could it hold its placing maybe, October too, after that though unlikely.

Among passenger sedans, the Model 3 was 3rd behind the Corolla and the Yaris. But both those saw big sales to rental companies, not private buyers. If you decide the rental sales, the Model 3 was the number one sedan for private buyers.

But SUVs are excluded from that view. Sounds like the 7th place ranking includes other classes?

Model 3 also seems to have a ripple effect. Once it enters a market and more people see it and have a chance to drive it, sales carry on. Tesla has a global backlog of nee orders.

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