2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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Ultimate Geek
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#3483914 25-Apr-2026 19:18

TL;DR: Cory Doctorow basically says Trump is accidentally accelerating decarbonisation globally.

https://pluralistic.net/2026/04/20/praxis/#acceleration

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SaltyNZ

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#3483938 26-Apr-2026 07:08

Yep, the longer this goes on, the more projects will will kick off and reach the point of no return even when it ends.

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sidefx

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#3483941 26-Apr-2026 07:58

nek minnit, Trump is taking credit for that, claiming it was all part of his master plan and that he did it for the good of the world and environment... Someone should really give the man a nobel peace prize IMO

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#3483942 26-Apr-2026 08:30

sidefx:

nek minnit, Trump is taking credit for that, claiming it was all part of his master plan and that he did it for the good of the world and environment... Someone should really give the man a nobel peace prize IMO

he's already predicted everything since before you were born

ezbee

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#3483958 26-Apr-2026 10:53

It seems fuel prices overshot and have now stabilized.
Waiting for next contract supply period to be firmed up?

That is still a lot of money taken out of the economy and feeding inflation from multiple directions.
Our dollar has been on steady decline vs Australian for last year( 0.93 to 0.82 ), not specifically present circumstance?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360968654/nz-close-phase-2-fuel-response-some-experts-question-if-we-should-already-be-there

""
So far, the Government has repeatedly said that fuel supply is steady until at least June and there is no need for change.
""

Airlines may be in a worse condition with fuel crunch coming up?
Airfreight for export of high value products and import a concern us being at far end of logistics route?

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 summer flights as fuel prices surge
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cre1r4n5j5wo

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#3483959 26-Apr-2026 11:17

deepred:

TL;DR: Cory Doctorow basically says Trump is accidentally accelerating decarbonisation globally.

https://pluralistic.net/2026/04/20/praxis/#acceleration

Wow. I'd forgotten how good Cory Doctorow is as a writer, and how enjoyable his articles are. So quotable.

"<Putin> catapulted Europe's energy transition into the Gretacene, with unimaginable defeats for the fossil fuel lobby."

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fastbike

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#3484058 26-Apr-2026 12:09

ezbee:

It seems fuel prices overshot and have now stabilized.
Waiting for next contract supply period to be firmed up?

That is still a lot of money taken out of the economy and feeding inflation from multiple directions.
Our dollar has been on steady decline vs Australian for last year( 0.93 to 0.82 ), not specifically present circumstance?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360968654/nz-close-phase-2-fuel-response-some-experts-question-if-we-should-already-be-there

""
So far, the Government has repeatedly said that fuel supply is steady until at least June and there is no need for change.
""

Airlines may be in a worse condition with fuel crunch coming up?
Airfreight for export of high value products and import a concern us being at far end of logistics route?

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 summer flights as fuel prices surge
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cre1r4n5j5wo

Being wishful and hopeful is not a strategy.

Oil to Be ‘Ongoing, Absolute Disaster’ Over Next Two Months, Analyst Sankey Says

The situation here gets worse, simply because it’s guaranteed,” says Paul Sankey, president at Sankey Research. He explains the tough times ahead for the global oil market over the next two to three months, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen in the next few days.

Some additional considerations:

tankers are in the wrong places so add a delay as they are re-positioned to pick up cargo
tankers in the gulf have now been at anchor in a warm water port for two months. There will be a lot of build up of barnacles and weed.That's a lot of dry dock work required.
Lloyds list require tankers to stay at anchorage for a minimum of 10 days after ceasefire.
The latest estimate is six months to clear the mines.

Anybody who thinks we're going to return to the days of happy motoring this side of 2028 is deluded. Think of the demand destruction aka recession that will rage for the next two years and adjust your plans accordingly.

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#3484073 26-Apr-2026 12:15

fastbike:

Being wishful and hopeful is not a strategy.

Oil to Be ‘Ongoing, Absolute Disaster’ Over Next Two Months, Analyst Sankey Says

The situation here gets worse, simply because it’s guaranteed,” says Paul Sankey, president at Sankey Research. He explains the tough times ahead for the global oil market over the next two to three months, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen in the next few days.

Some additional considerations:

tankers are in the wrong places so add a delay as they are re-positioned to pick up cargo
tankers in the gulf have now been at anchor in a warm water port for two months. There will be a lot of build up of barnacles and weed.That's a lot of dry dock work required.
Lloyds list require tankers to stay at anchorage for a minimum of 10 days after ceasefire.
The latest estimate is six months to clear the mines.
Anybody who thinks we're going to return to the days of happy motoring this side of 2028 is deluded. Think of the demand destruction aka recession that will rage for the next two years and adjust your plans accordingly.

So what is your point? Are you just celebrating the end of the world? Marching around with a long beard, wild eyes and a sign proclaiming the end is nigh? Do you actually have a solution to the doom you are prophesying?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

fastbike

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#3484121 26-Apr-2026 12:23

Rikkitic:

fastbike:

Being wishful and hopeful is not a strategy.

Oil to Be ‘Ongoing, Absolute Disaster’ Over Next Two Months, Analyst Sankey Says

The situation here gets worse, simply because it’s guaranteed,” says Paul Sankey, president at Sankey Research. He explains the tough times ahead for the global oil market over the next two to three months, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen in the next few days.

Some additional considerations:

tankers are in the wrong places so add a delay as they are re-positioned to pick up cargo
tankers in the gulf have now been at anchor in a warm water port for two months. There will be a lot of build up of barnacles and weed.That's a lot of dry dock work required.
Lloyds list require tankers to stay at anchorage for a minimum of 10 days after ceasefire.
The latest estimate is six months to clear the mines.
Anybody who thinks we're going to return to the days of happy motoring this side of 2028 is deluded. Think of the demand destruction aka recession that will rage for the next two years and adjust your plans accordingly.

So what is your point? Are you just celebrating the end of the world? Marching around with a long beard, wild eyes and a sign proclaiming the end is nigh? Do you actually have a solution to the doom you are prophesying?

Why would you say that? Maybe do your own research and make your own plans, as each person's situation is different. And stop trying to stereotype people who are pointing out that we are in for "interesting times".

A good place to start is the wise response website but there are plenty of other localisation resources out there.

Otautahi Christchurch

Rikkitic

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#3484169 26-Apr-2026 12:35

fastbike:

Why would you say that? Maybe do your own research and make your own plans, as each person's situation is different. And stop trying to stereotype people who are pointing out that we are in for "interesting times".

A good place to start is the wise response website but there are plenty of other localisation resources out there.

Why would I say that? Because your posts sound like disaster porn. Whatever the solutions might be, I don't think panicking people is helpful. That is all.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

cruxis

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#3484358 26-Apr-2026 12:52

For me, this period represents an opportunity. Historically, disruption has been when the most meaningful wealth‑building moments emerge, provided you have the conviction to act. As a retail derivatives trader, I’m aware that chances of this magnitude are uncommon — Warren Buffett suggested you might only encounter twenty. This moment feels like it fits that category. With discipline, the conditions could be promising.

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fastbike

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#3484430 26-Apr-2026 16:20

Rikkitic:

fastbike:

Why would you say that? Maybe do your own research and make your own plans, as each person's situation is different. And stop trying to stereotype people who are pointing out that we are in for "interesting times".

A good place to start is the wise response website but there are plenty of other localisation resources out there.

Why would I say that? Because your posts sound like disaster porn. Whatever the solutions might be, I don't think panicking people is helpful. That is all.

OK we have to agree to disagee. I'm not panicking people, outside of this board I am helping people become aware of the situation so they make sensible decisions rather than locking themselves into tragic outcomes.

However I find many posts on this board are leaping at any morsel of "good news", reading price fluctuations as signs that the worst is behind us etc. At work I have colleagues that are "waiting" for the prices of air fares to come down so they can book an overseas holiday, waiting for the price of fuel to come down as they want to replace their car with something else which is using > 10l/100km, etc.

I heard a commentator saying he doubts the Finance Minister seriously believes what she's saying on oil prices (confident they are coming down). The point being: maybe Willis isn't deaf to the experts, maybe she just thinks there's no way to win the election if prices don't come down quickly, so she might as well gamble on being the one person in the world who predicted they would. We will find out soon enough.

Otautahi Christchurch

deepred

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#3484434 26-Apr-2026 16:37

In any case, there's far less of an excuse this time round to cling to the fossil fuel-powered status quo than in the 1970s. Back then EVs & renewables were still nascent novelty technologies. The biggest obstacle these days isn't so much cost, but rather an industry in denial that it's a relic of a previous century, and will go out of its way to prevent itself being creatively disrupted.

Rikkitic

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#3484439 26-Apr-2026 17:09

fastbike:

OK we have to agree to disagee. I'm not panicking people, outside of this board I am helping people become aware of the situation so they make sensible decisions rather than locking themselves into tragic outcomes.

Cheers. I am happy to agree to disagree. This is a forum for opinions, after all!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

HarmLessSolutions

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#3484460 26-Apr-2026 19:00

ezbee:

It seems fuel prices overshot and have now stabilized.
Waiting for next contract supply period to be firmed up?

That is still a lot of money taken out of the economy and feeding inflation from multiple directions.
Our dollar has been on steady decline vs Australian for last year( 0.93 to 0.82 ), not specifically present circumstance?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360968654/nz-close-phase-2-fuel-response-some-experts-question-if-we-should-already-be-there

""
So far, the Government has repeatedly said that fuel supply is steady until at least June and there is no need for change.
""

Airlines may be in a worse condition with fuel crunch coming up?
Airfreight for export of high value products and import a concern us being at far end of logistics route?

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 summer flights as fuel prices surge
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cre1r4n5j5wo

I expect forward flight bookings will be well down currently and ongoing. We booked AKL-PER-LHR return about two months back for travel next month. Cost back then was $5,200 for two of us. Last week the equivalent route is now priced at $9,200. I'm not convinced our domestic flights to AKL won't be disrupted so plan B will be a road trip with the Polestar staying with my sister in AKL. We are indeed living in uncertain times.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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