2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3485612 29-Apr-2026 16:24

richms:

Also remember that as long as company fuel cards are a thing, there are people that will not give a crap what the pump price is and will still go to the one that can make them a passable coffee and sell them a mediocre pie.

the Z station on Fenton st in Rotorua is a good example of this , it is always busy yet just across the road is Pak n Save where the fuel is up to 30 cents a litre cheaper, doesn't matter the Z station is always busier

Common sense is not as common as you think.

MikeAqua

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#3485618 29-Apr-2026 16:38

richms:

Also remember that as long as company fuel cards are a thing, there are people that will not give a crap what the pump price is and will still go to the one that can make them a passable coffee and sell them a mediocre pie.

My fuel card doesn't stretch to pies and coffee sadly. Mind you, dealing with that would be a nightmare for tax accounting.

Mike

richms

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#3485625 29-Apr-2026 17:14

MikeAqua:

richms:

Also remember that as long as company fuel cards are a thing, there are people that will not give a crap what the pump price is and will still go to the one that can make them a passable coffee and sell them a mediocre pie.

My fuel card doesn't stretch to pies and coffee sadly. Mind you, dealing with that would be a nightmare for tax accounting.

Yes, but you dont care about the extra $10 on fuel used to fill there while you are buying those things for yourself. Also the cheaper places tend to not do fuelcards.

Richard rich.ms

pdh

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#3485630 29-Apr-2026 17:59

Living in the Albany area, owning Diesel vehicles this past 15 years, I've been very aware of the huge range in price-at-the-pump.

Since Costco opened, it's been mostly a no-brainer - it is rare that they are not cheaper and they can easily be 20% cheaper than some of the north-shore name-brand stations with a bit of isolation.

Everyone bangs on about the Costco membership fee - but it's pretty trivial compared with the price difference on two tank-fulls.

So I don't know about razor-thin profit margins - but I surely doubt it.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3485649 29-Apr-2026 19:57

Interesting comments from the fossil fuel industry regarding demand destruction: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEAs-Birol-Says-Iran-War-Will-Permanently-Cut-Into-Future-Oil-Demand.html

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

gzt

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#3485651 29-Apr-2026 20:35

pdh: Living in the Albany area, owning Diesel vehicles this past 15 years, I've been very aware of the huge range in price-at-the-pump.

Since Costco opened, it's been mostly a no-brainer - it is rare that they are not cheaper and they can easily be 20% cheaper than some of the north-shore name-brand stations with a bit of isolation.

I'd guess there are a large number of people using fuel card account type schemes in your area and not paying retail. That must be substantial to justify a 10 minutes drive each way to Costco. There is a PakNSave fuel in your area.

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#3485658 29-Apr-2026 20:49

United Arab Emirates leaves OPEC:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/uae-quits-opec-opec-may-1-impact-on-india-oil-imports-uae-opec-oil-prices-11424306

Leaving OPEC will allow UAE more flexibility to use oil supply and pricing to support it's diplomatic and strategic goals, including continuing to support and supply the genocidal RSF forces in Sudan.

fastbike

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#3485678 30-Apr-2026 06:23

HarmLessSolutions:

Interesting comments from the fossil fuel industry regarding demand destruction: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEAs-Birol-Says-Iran-War-Will-Permanently-Cut-Into-Future-Oil-Demand.html

Thanks for sharing. If I was dependent on petrol/diesel I would have a 44gal drum in the backyard and top it up with the currently cheap fuel.

Back the the article, this bit stands out for me

The current crisis is “bigger than all the biggest crises combined,” Birol said, chastising the world for being so “blind-sided” as to allow the global economy to be “hostage to a 50km strait.”

Otautahi Christchurch

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#3485679 30-Apr-2026 06:33

gzt: United Arab Emirates leaves OPEC:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/uae-quits-opec-opec-may-1-impact-on-india-oil-imports-uae-opec-oil-prices-11424306

Leaving OPEC will allow UAE more flexibility to use oil supply and pricing to support it's diplomatic and strategic goals, including continuing to support and supply the genocidal RSF forces in Sudan.

they left OPEC because the want to be both free of Saudi control and to appease the USA to bail them out economically

some feel this has USA written all over it as USA would be a major benefactor from this

fastbike

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#3485689 30-Apr-2026 07:22

Just reading through the MBIE pages to try to figure out why we have had such a vapid response to the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through. I'm not sure whether it reflects a lack of expertise - do they actually have any oil industry analysis expertise in house, or are they relying on what the oil importers tell them ? Have they contracted any independent energy analysts ?

This bit here makes me very concerned

New Zealand is a member country of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Membership of the IEA acts as “insurance” against disruption to international energy supplies.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3485694 30-Apr-2026 07:49

fastbike:

Just reading through the MBIE pages to try to figure out why we have had such a vapid response to the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through. I'm not sure whether it reflects a lack of expertise - do they actually have any oil industry analysis expertise in house, or are they relying on what the oil importers tell them ? Have they contracted any independent energy analysts ?

This bit here makes me very concerned

New Zealand is a member country of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Membership of the IEA acts as “insurance” against disruption to international energy supplies.

I dealt with MBIE directly during COVID trying to negotiate 'essential status' on the nappy booster fabric we sell to allow us to courier products. I was denied but the delays and responses I got definitely didn't inspire confidence in their abilities or professionalism.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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#3485700 30-Apr-2026 08:16

fastbike:

Just reading through the MBIE pages to try to figure out why we have had such a vapid response to the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through. I'm not sure whether it reflects a lack of expertise - do they actually have any oil industry analysis expertise in house, or are they relying on what the oil importers tell them ? Have they contracted any independent energy analysts ?

This bit here makes me very concerned

New Zealand is a member country of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Membership of the IEA acts as “insurance” against disruption to international energy supplies.

the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through? I hope you a right, but I really doubt it.

gzt

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#3485702 30-Apr-2026 08:42

fastbike:
Just reading through the MBIE pages to try to figure out why we have had such a vapid response to the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through. I'm not sure whether it reflects a lack of expertise - do they actually have any oil industry analysis expertise in house, or are they relying on what the oil importers tell them ? Have they contracted any independent energy analysts ?
This bit here makes me very concerned

New Zealand is a member country of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Membership of the IEA acts as “insurance” against disruption to international energy supplies.

I don't see a the problem with that. It is an analogy. Insurance tends to be limited and only gets you so far. Adding the word 'like' might have improved the phrase.

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#3485706 30-Apr-2026 08:49

BlargHonk:

the biggest energy crisis any of us are going to live through? I hope you a right, but I really doubt it.

Trump is now saying he's going to keep it closed for months, which will guarantee a final escalation. This is because right now Iran can choke off the oil. But that can only last for a couple of years at the outside because the other Gulf states can work with the Saudis to put pipelines across Saudi Arabia into the Red Sea where it will be much more difficult for Iran to totally close. The Houthis probably still have some capability to harass shipping but the West will work very hard to make sure Iran cannot resupply them. In addition to that, more ships and port facilities can be built in other oil exporting countries to make up for the lowered levels of oil and other products coming out of the Middle East.

So in the medium term we have this shortage crisis, but in the long term the combination of increased sanctions and the loss of a grip on the flow of a significant fraction of global oil would eventually either make the Iranian regime lose to a massive, violent and bloody revolution, or at least ensure Israel can resume bombing you with relative impunity (because the US no longer gives a crap about the potential consequences; you're not hurting them anymore, after all). If you're Iran, you know this.

What then are you going to do in the meantime? You're going to dig out and repair your buried missiles and launchers, and you're going to retrieve your buried uranium and/or process the plutonium from civilian reactor waste to get bomb material, and you're absolutely going to build a bomb. Every country other than North Korea has succeeded on their first try so there is no reason to think Iran can't do it quickly once they have the material in hand. Indeed, that is the very justification that the US and Israel used in launching this war in the first place.

For all we know they already have a tested working warhead suitable for loading onto one of their existing missiles, but minus the core.

So if the US keeps the blockade going then at some point in the next year or so Iran is going to be both ready to go and at breaking point. That's when they go out with a bang and saturate some juicy target within range - you would guess Jerusalem or maybe Tel Aviv but certainly somewhere in Israel, their mortal enemy - with missiles and drones to guarantee that at least one of the nukes gets through the ballistic missile defenses.

If they're not willing to do that, then there's no reason to prolong their pain and they may as well surrender now and hope that the Iranian people execute them mercifully. But nothing about the last 40 years of history suggests that that is the likely outcome, does it?

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kingdragonfly

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#3485713 30-Apr-2026 09:20

I'd assume the strait of Hormuz is now a permanent middle eastern feature, like Gaza and Israel.

Iranian know they have leverage, Americans soldiers in flag covered coffins will inevitably cause problems for even warhawks, and the Americans' crave new politics-as-entertainment, not long drawn out affairs.

I see the day when every ship will have an extra container on top with anti-drone defense and autonomous drone hunters.

China has already shown off inocuous containers with pop-up artillery. And various navies have also demo'd their versions of containerized defense.

I speculate since we're at the end of a long chain, and we're a tiny market. The strait of Hormuz instability is going to be our fuel supply instability for years.

Perhaps a ray of sunshine in a gloomy post, we're a reliable import partner, and mostly protected form the spot market, unless Australia flexes its econnomic muscles.

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