2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | ... | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79

3428 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2935

#3486028 1-May-2026 08:47

Batman:

anyone remember the month when oil went negative? they literally paid whoever had capacity to take oil.

Yes! Future contracts got to minus $37! Some fortunes made and lost in that day!

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/remember-when-crude-oil-prices-went-below-0-a-barrel-5-years-later-prices-are-sliding-againbut-for-different-reasons/articleshow/120483311.cms

MikeAqua

8088 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3876

#3486029 1-May-2026 08:48

I just filled the tank at 2.84/L for diesel. I've been waiting ages for it to drop below 3/L. If petrol drops, I'll fill the boat too. The freezer is just about out of fish. I've missed this year's albacore run, but not too late for snapper and blue nose.

Mike

cddt

2008 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1951

#3486251 1-May-2026 14:35

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthieu-favas-94492619_the-crisis-in-oil-markets-will-get-bigger-share-7455648648513687552-InmO

Interesting. In summary, the crunch is about to happen.

mattwnz

20539 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4812

#3486254 1-May-2026 14:42

Handle9:

This is exactly the kind of knee jerk response that isn’t needed for what is most likely a short term supply shock. There is no global shortage of oil, there’s a problem with accessing some of it at the moment.

This is most likely a six month supply problem with some products taking a bit longer to get back on stream. The changes in OPEC could end up making oil considerably cheaper if the UAE releases the supply it has historically held back under OPEC quotas

None of the proposed measures are bad things but are they more worthwhile than building new hospitals or schools? Long term investments should have proper business cases and be properly scoped. Running projects without doing this is exactly how New Zealand ended up with the ferry mess. Repeating that sort of project would be total folly.

The problem is the inflation it causes that then gets baked into the economy. When Labour reduced fuel tax it meant that inflation didn’t go as high, so it potentially helped to keep interest rates lower and people had more disposable income. But when inflation increases it reduces people’s buying power and has a knock on effect of needing everything to increase in price as the economy rebalances. It also means the government needs more tax to provide services. The RB appears to be looking through inflation caused by this which didn’t work out well when inflation last got out of control and they did the same thing. So imo there are pros and cons.

SaltyNZ

8967 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9789

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3486256 1-May-2026 14:55

cddt:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthieu-favas-94492619_the-crisis-in-oil-markets-will-get-bigger-share-7455648648513687552-InmO

Interesting. In summary, the crunch is about to happen.

In a couple of weeks I'll shift my Kiwisaver to conservative so as not to lose too much when the adjustment happens, I think.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

wellygary

8862 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5353

#3486258 1-May-2026 15:02

mattwnz:

The RB appears to be looking through inflation caused by this which didn’t work out well when inflation last got out of control and they did the same thing. So imo there are pros and cons.

The inflation got out of control because the RB cut interest rates to basically zero, they removed LVR restrictions and then created $50 billion which they lent out to banks.. the Banks then did what banks do in NZ, lend it on housing loans.. and with travel shut down we all went nuts buying and selling houses to each other..... and then because everyone felt wealthier after their house jumped in Value we all went shopping, but because COVID was a supply shock, (having disrupted production and shipping around the world) Inflation took off....

The RBNZ isn't going to cut rates this time round, arguable the OCR was over stimulatory anyway (2.25 vs about 3 ish).. so rates going up is not really a direct response to the oil price....

Samsung

Shop now on Samsung phones, tablets, TVs and more (affiliate link).

Handle9

11980 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9780

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3486268 1-May-2026 15:51

SaltyNZ:

cddt:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthieu-favas-94492619_the-crisis-in-oil-markets-will-get-bigger-share-7455648648513687552-InmO

Interesting. In summary, the crunch is about to happen.

In a couple of weeks I'll shift my Kiwisaver to conservative so as not to lose too much when the adjustment happens, I think.

Most studies show trying to time the market is fools gold. No one knows when things will happen so jumping backwards and forwards rarely works. DCA with an existing strategy is generally the best way to maximise returns.

SaltyNZ

8967 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9789

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3486272 1-May-2026 16:16

Handle9:

Most studies show trying to time the market is fools gold. No one knows when things will happen so jumping backwards and forwards rarely works. DCA with an existing strategy is generally the best way to maximise returns.

Yes, that is true. But I think there is a very good chance of a big crunch coming. Not a world-ender, certainly, but significant. It's less about making big gains as about not making big losses. And you're absolutely right that it's impossible to time the market which is why I'm considering doing it sooner rather than wait till it feels like it might be imminent.

Having said that I have a relatively small amount of money in Australian super from before I moved to NZ and I'll leave that on their aggressive growth plan. If I lose a bunch of it, it won't be financial death, but if it turns out to make a huge gain that'll be nice too. It's currently earmarked for traipsing around the world with my wife when we retire as opposed to requiring it to live on and I am not really the traipsing type. :-)

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Handle9

11980 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9780

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3486324 1-May-2026 16:59

SaltyNZ:

Handle9:

Most studies show trying to time the market is fools gold. No one knows when things will happen so jumping backwards and forwards rarely works. DCA with an existing strategy is generally the best way to maximise returns.

Yes, that is true. But I think there is a very good chance of a big crunch coming. Not a world-ender, certainly, but significant. It's less about making big gains as about not making big losses. And you're absolutely right that it's impossible to time the market which is why I'm considering doing it sooner rather than wait till it feels like it might be imminent.

Having said that I have a relatively small amount of money in Australian super from before I moved to NZ and I'll leave that on their aggressive growth plan. If I lose a bunch of it, it won't be financial death, but if it turns out to make a huge gain that'll be nice too. It's currently earmarked for traipsing around the world with my wife when we retire as opposed to requiring it to live on and I am not really the traipsing type. :-)

If your time horizon for the majority of the funds is greater than 10 years then minimising the loss will also minimise the gains from the boom which always follows a bust.

It’s your money but passive investing is generally about picking a good provider/ETF and holding your nerve.

fastbike

490 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 371

#3486385 1-May-2026 20:36

Demand destruction now kicking in, which will seriously change how economies work. Leaving stranded assets.

Lots of downside risk, some upside potential .

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Warnings-on-Permanent-Oil-Demand-Destruction-Begin-Pouring-In.html

Analysts have reported that the supply crunch in oil is hitting the petrochemicals industry hard. A lot of industries depend on petrochemicals for their own products, and EVs, wind and solar power are among them. If prices rise for crude, they rise along the supply chain for everything from electric cars to cables, ultimately making the alternative to hydrocarbons more expensive as well and thereby killing demand for energy overall

Otautahi Christchurch

cddt

2008 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1951

#3487202 4-May-2026 07:39

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/04/30/the-crisis-in-oil-markets-will-get-bigger-before-it-goes-away

In summary:

Net shortfall: 12m b/d
Observed demand destruction: 4m b/d (estimates 3-5m b/d)
Therefore draw down of stocks: 8m b/d

That level of draw down can only be sustained for another 1-2 months at most, at which point shortages will be real and prices will skyrocket.

Geekzone

Want to support Geekzone and browse the site without the ads? Subscribe to Geekzone now (monthly, annual and lifetime options).

JPNZ

1733 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 863

#3487616 5-May-2026 11:15

The latest from MBIE

"Today's release from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) delivered mostly good news ahead of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's appearance at the official signing of New Zealand's so-called "food-for-fuel" deal with Singapore.

The MBIE data published this afternoon showed diesel stocks rose from 46 to 52 days' cover and jet fuel climbed from 49 to 58 days' cover over the period ending April 29. Petrol stocks remained largely unchanged, dipping slightly from 52.8 to 52.6 days' cover. A ministry spokesperson said the significant increase in diesel and jet fuel was the result of several large shipments that had recently embarked for New Zealand, with the supply chain "operating smoothly".

Most of the gains came from vessels outside New Zealand's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles off the coast. It comes after a period of declining offshore and on-water stocks."

https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/05/04/nzs-diesel-stocks-surge-as-luxon-to-ink-singapore-fuel-deal/

Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+

fastbike

490 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 371

#3487628 5-May-2026 11:38

JPNZ:

The latest from MBIE

"Today's release from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) delivered mostly good news ahead of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's appearance at the official signing of New Zealand's so-called "food-for-fuel" deal with Singapore.

The MBIE data published this afternoon showed diesel stocks rose from 46 to 52 days' cover and jet fuel climbed from 49 to 58 days' cover over the period ending April 29. Petrol stocks remained largely unchanged, dipping slightly from 52.8 to 52.6 days' cover. A ministry spokesperson said the significant increase in diesel and jet fuel was the result of several large shipments that had recently embarked for New Zealand, with the supply chain "operating smoothly".

Most of the gains came from vessels outside New Zealand's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles off the coast. It comes after a period of declining offshore and on-water stocks."

https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/05/04/nzs-diesel-stocks-surge-as-luxon-to-ink-singapore-fuel-deal/

Meanwhile back in the real world.

Interislander doubles fuel surcharge
Maersk adds 27% surcharge for NZ routes (the highest of any country)
Singapore PM warns of 'six months of pain'

And the fighting resumes in the Strait so any hope for a return to a new normality takes a hike.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-help-ships-stranded-strait-hormuz-tanker-hit-by-projectiles-2026-05-04/

None of these ships are getting out anytime soon.
Hundreds of ships stranded in Strait of Hormuz

Otautahi Christchurch

wellygary

8862 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5353

#3487631 5-May-2026 11:47

cddt:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/04/30/the-crisis-in-oil-markets-will-get-bigger-before-it-goes-away

In summary:

Net shortfall: 12m b/d
Observed demand destruction: 4m b/d (estimates 3-5m b/d)
Therefore draw down of stocks: 8m b/d

That level of draw down can only be sustained for another 1-2 months at most, at which point shortages will be real and prices will skyrocket.

That doesn't gel with this from the IEA though,

there's around 4 billion barrels sloshing around OECD countries, which is 500 days @ 8mb/d.... Then there is China....

" Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries."
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

kingdragonfly

12052 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 13002

Subscriber

#3487633 5-May-2026 12:04

pdh: ... Costco ...

I'm very much envious of anyone who lives within a short driving distance of Costco.

Costco New Zealand follows the same core model as Costco USA.

There's very low markups, typically capped. They globally caps markups at 14% on branded items and 15% on Kirkland Signature. Product sales mostly covering operating costs.

Pak 'N Save estimated markup somewhere between 20 to 25%

Most of their profit come from membership fees. In NZ, Gold Star is $60 NZD/year. Business is $55 NZD/year.

My estimates $750/year in Costco spending to breaks pay for membership yearly. On average shopping in NZ, with shopping at Costco vs Pak 'N Save, it could reach $132 savings per year per person.

If you but other things, like tires, car batteries, electronics, jewelry, furniture, treadmills, tools and even coffins, you could do much better.

Petrol

Pak’nSave does not publish a “cost + x%” markup for fuel: Not published, but globally low

On 91 octane, when Costco opened 91: $2.50/L The nearby Pak’nSave station was charging $2.69/L. A later comparison Sept 2022 Costco still undercutting Pak’nSave by 16c/L

1 | ... | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79