2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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cddt

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#3487756 5-May-2026 14:37

wellygary:

That doesn't gel with this from the IEA though,

there's around 4 billion barrels sloshing around OECD countries, which is 500 days @ 8mb/d.... Then there is China....

" Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries."
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

I guess time will tell...

fastbike

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#3487767 5-May-2026 15:40

wellygary:

That doesn't gel with this from the IEA though,

there's around 4 billion barrels sloshing around OECD countries, which is 500 days @ 8mb/d.... Then there is China....

" Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries."
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

If only it were that simple. The IEA tone has changed by the time they wrote their April report - the introduction ends thus (emphasis mine)

IEA:
The prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict remain unclear at this stage. In this Report, we present a forecast that assumes a resumption of regular deliveries of oil and gas from the Middle East to international markets by mid-year, although not back to pre-conflict levels. We recognise that this scenario could prove too optimistic, considering the high degree of uncertainty over how the situation may develop. We also present an alternative case where risks to energy production and trade in the Middle East remain high due to a prolonged conflict (see Strait Down – Stocks Draw as the Loss of Hormuz Flows Tightens Balances). In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come.

Otautahi Christchurch

wellygary

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#3487776 5-May-2026 16:25

fastbike:

IEA:
The prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict remain unclear at this stage. In this Report, we present a forecast that assumes a resumption of regular deliveries of oil and gas from the Middle East to international markets by mid-year, although not back to pre-conflict levels. We recognise that this scenario could prove too optimistic, considering the high degree of uncertainty over how the situation may develop. We also present an alternative case where risks to energy production and trade in the Middle East remain high due to a prolonged conflict (see Strait Down – Stocks Draw as the Loss of Hormuz Flows Tightens Balances). In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come.

I think this is probably as much as we can safely say about things at the moment,

This came out from JPM last week, which tends to indicate we've probably got another couple of months until things start to get to "squeaky bum" time... and then we start to crimp refinery operations, but its not a total calamity for at least another 6 months after that

.. FWIW US Mid terms are in November, and this pretty much needs to be wrapped up by then as gas at $4+/gallon will get Reps crucified...

JPNZ

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#3487779 5-May-2026 16:31

JPNZ:

Our NPD price for the period 29-4-26 to 5-5-26 is down another 22 cents. Diesel is $2.56 per litre incl gst

In the interest of keeping this going Diesel price is up 40 cents for 6-5-26 to 12-5-26 to $2.96 Per Litre

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Handle9

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#3487815 5-May-2026 17:58

wellygary:

I think this is probably as much as we can safely say about things at the moment,

This came out from JPM last week, which tends to indicate we've probably got another couple of months until things start to get to "squeaky bum" time... and then we start to crimp refinery operations, but its not a total calamity for at least another 6 months after that

.. FWIW US Mid terms are in November, and this pretty much needs to be wrapped up by then as gas at $4+/gallon will get Reps crucified...

Western/developed countries are pretty much ok for petrol and diesel. There are some inflationary aspects but really this isn't a massive crisis as they can afford to pay a bit more to access the available supply. The bigger issue is in the developing world and countries which are dependent on gulf LNG.

The bigger impacts are in South Asia and South East Asia where the economies don't have the money to absorb large price rises. Winter in Europe would be the other big crunch point as they are very dependent on Qatar LNG after the Russian mess.

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