Why I wont vote National

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1759 posts

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#1868580 19-Sep-2017 13:51

tdgeek:

6FIEND:

Pumpedd:

Still undecided a bit. Been National my whole life.

Beginning to see through the Jacinda effect a bit. Just wish National looked after health better, so the little guy wasnt effected so much. We are 10 years behind Australia now just for some drugs, and waiting times for cancer treatment have grown into several months now in a lot of cases. Not good enough.

This seems to be a common perception that has little basis in reality. Of course you can always pull out the worst stats and claim "it's not good enough"... equally, National can point to their headline stats and claim that've done a stand-up job.

The reality tends to be far less "extreme" than the headlines.

On a purely "fiscal" basis, as has been covered in another thread, National have increased health funding at a rate greater than inflation and greater than population increase combined.

From an outcome-based standpoint (as related by someone "at the coal-face") I'd highly recommend reading this account from a practicing doctor. [Note - this is hosted on the Whaleoil website which can be off-putting for some people. I'd recommend adopting a "Don't shoot the messenger" mindset here and consider the content rather than the publisher]

IIRC they gave a lot to health in the last budget, moist of which was a pay catchup for aged care workers, the test is still way underfunded. Once that is corrected, then meeting inflation is fine, but it needs to be corrected first.

My Doctor would disagree with the whaleoil doctor. She has many cancer patients waiting for several months to see their first specialist. This wasnt the case 5 years ago. Whilst the health system does indeed keep up with inflation, it isnt keeping up with immigration or the aging population. I also think that DHB's have become less efficient over the last few years and its perhaps time for a shakeup.

allio

885 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1868646 19-Sep-2017 15:07

MikeAqua:

Whomever wins I think will lose the 2020 election. National because it would be a 5th term. Labour because they cannot deliver on the expectations they are creating.

If elected for one more term National has nothing to lose. But a one term govt would be an utter disaster for Labour.

You forgot to mention that National will only be able to govern in full coalition with NZ First. Historically that's been a rapid kiss of death for whichever party signs that deal with the devil. Given this government's accumulated baggage is starting to stink pretty badly already, and given that Winston holds a very obvious grudge against them for knocking him out of Parliament in 2008, I can only imagine what an entertaining shambles such an arrangement would turn out to be.

Only Labour has the ability to form a government without NZ First, so ironically, those stupid rowboat and running ads now say far more about National than they do about Labour.

gulfa

321 posts

Ultimate Geek
Inactive user

#1868649 19-Sep-2017 15:13

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/17/paula-bennetts-constant-u-turns-on-education/

another link about Paula Bennet

another reason not to trust this woman Scarey thought if National Lose this weekend and she gets rid of BE

allio

885 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1868655 19-Sep-2017 15:23

gulfa:

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/17/paula-bennetts-constant-u-turns-on-education/

another link about Paula Bennet

another reason not to trust this woman Scarey thought if National Lose this weekend and she gets rid of BE

Fortunately there is no way that Paula Bennett will ever, ever win an election as leader, so that development wouldn't do too much harm to the public.

What you need to worry about is Bill leading National to a shaky, marginal win, and then getting knifed by one of the people who know that this is their last shot at being PM. Collins and Bennett probably the two most likely suspects.

sen8or

1787 posts

Uber Geek

#1868656 19-Sep-2017 15:23

I must say, assuming that the post is true and accurate (I have no reason not to believe it), its pretty funny. I highly doubt she has the political backing to roll BE, even if he pulls a warriors move and snatches a defeat from the jaws of victory, I just don't see her as a likeable enough character, too much baggage and history.

lokhor

2858 posts

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#1868849 19-Sep-2017 20:31

10 Reasons not to vote National:

http://werewolf.co.nz/…/ten-reasons-for-not-voting-national/

Also if you are worried about housing, watch this documentary:

https://www.threenow.co.nz/shows/who-owns-new-zealand-now/S1344-012

All comments are my own opinion, and not that of my employer unless explicitly stated.

Pumpedd

1759 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#1868851 19-Sep-2017 20:35

NZ has been short of housing for 100 years. Even when full state housing construction was under way, people cried about it being insufficient.

Aucklands issues are not so much a government issue, but more a Auckland Council issue who did nothing for 30 years. Same as infrastructure...Auckland Councils did nothing and sat back think it was solely a government issue, when it certainly was not. In fact Auckland Councils have been extremely poor performing for decades.

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gulfa

321 posts

Ultimate Geek
Inactive user

#1869499 20-Sep-2017 15:29

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97027717/national-party-volunteer-sent-text-to-voters-appearing-to-be-from-paula-bennett

Another interesting Pb issue

bmt

574 posts

Ultimate Geek

#1869841 20-Sep-2017 22:14

There's a reason she has been largely invisible this campaign. Aside from her extremely small core of supporters she has little support or likability elsewhere and is very heavy baggage for the National party. Amazing she is still around considering her breathtaking incompetence at any portfolio she breathes on.

Rikkitic

Awrrr
18657 posts

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#1869926 21-Sep-2017 08:33

I don't know where else to put this but I don't think it warrants a new thread. It is just a curiosity question that has occurred to me. If National gets the most votes, but NZ First sinks, and National cannot put together a majority coalition, does Labour get a chance? Does that mean we could have a Labour/Greens/Maori government even though National wins more votes than Labour? If so, would it be a realistic possibility or is it just theoretical?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MikeB4

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#1869931 21-Sep-2017 08:39

National will be asked first if they form a majority Government with a partner, if not they will be asked if they can form a minority Government by the Crown.

tdgeek

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#1869934 21-Sep-2017 08:47

Rikkitic:

I don't know where else to put this but I don't think it warrants a new thread. It is just a curiosity question that has occurred to me. If National gets the most votes, but NZ First sinks, and National cannot put together a majority coalition, does Labour get a chance? Does that mean we could have a Labour/Greens/Maori government even though National wins more votes than Labour? If so, would it be a realistic possibility or is it just theoretical?

A hung parliament is one where there is no majority party, but with MMP that is common. I dont think most votes matters, as the party that has the majority of seats is the new government. Both parties will not get 61 seats on their own, thats normal. There would be negotiations, and its quite possible that on election night when all votes are counted (lets just say they were ALL counted), there is no winner. Negotiations start, and someone has to put together a majority government. I assume there is time allowed for that before the Governor General steps in and calls for another election. Its easy to see NZ First (assuming they are above 5%) can go either way as will Maori Party. Your example of Labour/Greens/Maori and NZF sinks can happen as long as they get over the line at 61 seats plus any allowance for hangover seats. Popular vote isn't part of the election process here. Labour lost an election years ago when they had the popular vote.

Thats what I am sure is the case.

tdgeek

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#1869937 21-Sep-2017 08:50

MikeB4: National will be asked first if they form a majority Government with a partner, if not they will be asked if they can form a minority Government by the Crown.

By the GG? And on the basis of popular vote or seats won?

So if Labour can form a majority Govt even though they got less popular vote or seats than National, you are saying they don't get a chance to do that? If that happened , when they went to pass a law, they will get outvoted by the Labour etc majority opposition? And if the Labour etc majority opposition wanted to pass a law, it will pass? Doesnt seem right to me

MikeB4

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#1870019 21-Sep-2017 10:08

tdgeek:

MikeB4: National will be asked first if they form a majority Government with a partner, if not they will be asked if they can form a minority Government by the Crown.

By the GG? And on the basis of popular vote or seats won?

So if Labour can form a majority Govt even though they got less popular vote or seats than National, you are saying they don't get a chance to do that? If that happened , when they went to pass a law, they will get outvoted by the Labour etc majority opposition? And if the Labour etc majority opposition wanted to pass a law, it will pass? Doesnt seem right to me

From the Elections.org

"If a party wins more than half the seats in Parliament, it can form a
majority government by itself.
If no one party has a majority, two or more parties, which together
have more than half the seats in Parliament, can agree to form
a majority coalition government. If this happens, there may be
ministers in Cabinet from more than one party. Cabinet ministers
have special responsibilities for running government departments,
such as Treasury, the Ministry of Education or the Ministry of Youth
Development. They have the main say about what the government
does. They meet together every Monday in secret. The Prime Minister
is the head of the Cabinet.
Another way of forming a government is to have a minority
government. That happens when one or more parties with less
than half the seats in Parliament rely on the support of other
parties outside the Government in order to stay in power. These are
sometimes known as ‘Confidence and Supply’ agreements.
The Prime Minister is usually the leader of the party with the most
seats in Parliament, so he or she has to be supported by the majority
of MPs.
After the election, the Governor-General formally appoints the Prime
Minister to organise and lead the Government."

tdgeek

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#1870033 21-Sep-2017 10:17

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

MikeB4: National will be asked first if they form a majority Government with a partner, if not they will be asked if they can form a minority Government by the Crown.

By the GG? And on the basis of popular vote or seats won?

So if Labour can form a majority Govt even though they got less popular vote or seats than National, you are saying they don't get a chance to do that? If that happened , when they went to pass a law, they will get outvoted by the Labour etc majority opposition? And if the Labour etc majority opposition wanted to pass a law, it will pass? Doesnt seem right to me

From the Elections.org

"If a party wins more than half the seats in Parliament, it can form a
majority government by itself.
If no one party has a majority, two or more parties, which together
have more than half the seats in Parliament, can agree to form
a majority coalition government. If this happens, there may be
ministers in Cabinet from more than one party. Cabinet ministers
have special responsibilities for running government departments,
such as Treasury, the Ministry of Education or the Ministry of Youth
Development. They have the main say about what the government
does. They meet together every Monday in secret. The Prime Minister
is the head of the Cabinet.
Another way of forming a government is to have a minority
government. That happens when one or more parties with less
than half the seats in Parliament rely on the support of other
parties outside the Government in order to stay in power. These are
sometimes known as ‘Confidence and Supply’ agreements.
The Prime Minister is usually the leader of the party with the most
seats in Parliament, so he or she has to be supported by the majority
of MPs.
After the election, the Governor-General formally appoints the Prime
Minister to organise and lead the Government."

So If National and Labour had a minority of seats, both can try to form a coalition? There is no requirement for National or Labour to try first?

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