2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3282824 16-Sep-2024 20:38

gzt:

Several outlets are reporting Routh was a registered Democrat for the most recent primary in North Carolina.

Yes, I read he was registered Dem, but he voted Repub in 16.

So I think perhaps it was a mistake, hes registered to vote is all? I do wonder how this will end up political yet again.

neb

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#3282827 16-Sep-2024 20:47

freitasm:

Can you folks just calm down?

About what? Unless I missed something I haven't seen any arguments here for awhile.

gzt

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#3282830 16-Sep-2024 20:52

You missed something. That usually means something was deleted.

quickymart

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#3282836 16-Sep-2024 21:11

I wonder if this will give a bump to Trump's polling, like it did a few months ago.

I read that part of the issue is due to the fact that Trump is not the sitting president, he doesn't get as much security as Biden or Harris. Given this is the second attempt on his life, I wonder if maybe it's time to review that policy?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fbi-now-investigating-florida-incident-as-an-attempted-assassination-on-trump/ar-AA1qCysQ?cvid=7a44865230284995b107f5ee5463f858&ei=13

However I read somewhere else (can't find the link now) that given a lot of the rhetoric he says, it's just a matter of time before some nutjob with a gun decides to take the law into his own hands and give him a piece of his mind. While I don't like Trump, I don't want him dead or anything - I just wish he would learn to tone down all the bile and hate speech that seems to constantly flow from him, as it doesn't help his cause, and only appeals to a very small portion of the population (his base).

TeaLeaf

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#3282838 16-Sep-2024 21:30

quickymart:

I wonder if this will give a bump to Trump's polling, like it did a few months ago.

That is exactly where I was heading but didnt want to say it. But just on the polls, was curious what comes next.

Yes I thought the first time, its his Rhetoric that is alarming people. as much as I dont want to see anyone hurt.

Re the security, to top it up privately, one of the YT guys hosting an ex CIa type expert from memory costed it, it wasnt that much to be "untouchable" until the end of year, like ~$2M or seme figure close to it. I will try to find it and post it.

The problem is QM, its the hate, fear then Division which ultimately gives him is false platform as the only answer.

Its up to the people if enough of them see through a the hyperbole vs substance, hope and a new way forward. Harris team really has to work hard now to keep the momentum.

freitasm

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#3283135 17-Sep-2024 12:53

The video doesn't exist.

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TeaLeaf

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#3283137 17-Sep-2024 13:06

freitasm:

The video doesn't exist.

uggh, not sure what happened then, a CNN post just pointing out he could be appealing to the swing voters he needs but blaming the opposition for what occurred is just repelling them when he already has his base.

SaltyNZ

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#3283138 17-Sep-2024 13:07

TeaLeaf:

uggh, not sure what happened then, a CNN post just pointing out he could be appealing to the swing voters he needs but blaming the opposition for what occurred is just repelling them when he already has his base.

To be fair, he was utterly repellent before that too.

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TeaLeaf

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#3283151 17-Sep-2024 13:29

SaltyNZ:

To be fair, he was utterly repellent before that too.

yeh, you would think he would be smart enough to try lean into the swing voters...

Here Vance appears to admit making up this "dogs being eaten" story, to get peoples attention. Its worded oddly the second time.

about 1:50 in then they discuss his admission about at 4:45

TeaLeaf

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#3283227 17-Sep-2024 15:19

Im surprised this isnt out there in policy action already. as we switch our focus to the swing states, a lot of which we will not find out from polling.

This is a winner for sure. She also needs to get her economic policies out to these people just engaging within the next 30 days, but make sure she spells out what she plans to do about Cost of Living immediately once elected. abortion is on the list but its not what is going to change the minds of swing voters as much as Cost of Living/Economy it seems based on reading other polls.

How Harris Can Close the Gap in the Swing States | Washington Monthly

quickymart

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#3283397 18-Sep-2024 08:53

https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-show-harris-gaining-after-presidential-debate/story?id=113745432

In national polls, the real boon for Harris is not that she has gained four-tenths of a percent of support; it's that she has put a stop to Trump's gains. Before last week, Trump was gaining about half a point of popular-vote margin nationally on Harris since late August. If he had continued on that path, he would have been favored to win the race in 538's forecast by later this month — perhaps as soon as this week. Instead, Harris is the one who has modestly improved her chances of winning the race.

I don't want to count my chickens, etc...but could this be a positive sign?

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SaltyNZ

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#3283518 18-Sep-2024 13:16

Next up, Donald Trump to be sentenced to prison on 34 criminal convictions to-- *damnit Merchan, you had one job. One job!*

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TeaLeaf

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#3283520 18-Sep-2024 13:23

quickymart:

I don't want to count my chickens, etc...but could this be a positive sign?

Momentum is never bad sign. all polls on RTWH has Harris +3.9. and Finally on 385 Harris has gone Favorable +0.1. So yes very big signs of momentum shift vs pre debate.

Big Village had a +8 Harris according to RTWH, amongst a bunch of polls of different voters they ran, but the range of the 3 polls looked 5,6 and 7 to me. Never the less 7 or 8 is good momenutum.

The big one was morning consult with 11022 Likely Voters, Harris +6. (Harris 51 v Trump 45).

But what we are moving into now is the Swing State analysis. Its hard because many can be Partisan or heavily innacurate.

One that the Bulwark discusses is the Suffolk University which had Pennsylvannia +3%, but its what was asked inside the poll that really matters. as per below.

Its all about getting these groups out to vote, its all about Turn Out now.

TeaLeaf

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#3283528 18-Sep-2024 13:43

SaltyNZ:

Next up, Donald Trump to be sentenced to prison on 34 criminal convictions to-- *damnit Merchan, you had one job. One job!*

Yes it really would have been good timing, I personally think giving favour due to an election that the defendant caused himself with delay tactics is not fair for the average person.

On the flip side if wins or loses he cannot falsely say they weaponised it etc, he will be sentenced as a nobody with it being before hand over of power in the worst case that he wins, thus gives less ammo for people to use it as a reason to do a Jan 6 2.0

I think that admission from Vance that they made up the racist Haitian dog eating thing, why is he not being charged for crimes of hate? Its caused bomb threats and all sorts. and Springfield has shown positive signs of rebuilding since this community made it home.

Trump is so dumb that he repeats things he hears in casual conversations as facts. When called out in the Debate about it, didnt he say he heard it on the news or something, which is a lie.

Haters should be made accountable.

Trump is going backward fast on favorability unlike Harris, he is now +9.9 Unfavorable.

One thing I heard amongst some undecideds is the are waiting for him to have some plans. Reality is "Has concepts of a Plan" which is being memed everywhere.

I thought this funny, the "orange" man upgraded to "burnt sienna"

TeaLeaf

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#3283579 18-Sep-2024 15:38

So it appears listening to deeper dives, Trump's adverts supposedly appealing to white male grads from Penn state Uni's. There also appears to be a lot of young voters Dem voters not taking polls but intending to "Turn up", supposedly. a pollsters nightmare.

Traditionally Wisconsin, Michigan + Pennsylvannia, that gives Harris 270. Both are spending big on that state,

I dont know if Harris is trying to draw Trump away to defend battleground states

Trump holds Iowa, Georgia, Florida, arizona <5%

Harris holds North Carl and Nevada <5%

Is he putting all his chips in to break the Blue Wall, which if it goes wrong could see a landslide. If it goes well then she needs 44EV from those 6 other states.

I do wonder with those political strategists, how do you know when to push all in. I think in Trumps situation it prob is necessity?

This spending graph at the end is updated once a day.

https://www.ft.com/content/d82000ee-b141-48ec-8af0-b06802c08f88

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