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Topic # 222586 19-Aug-2017 15:33
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I personally think so, I would say they thought they had it in the bag but I am sure there are some pretty big strategy meetings going on now as we speak.

 

I am very much looking forward to the debates and I think this may be a turning point for some people who are thinking of changing.

 

Either way I think its going to end up being a very close run election and not what I was expecting was going to happen just 3 weeks ago.





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  Reply # 1848873 19-Aug-2017 15:39
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I'm expecting a labour coalition win.


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  Reply # 1848882 19-Aug-2017 16:19
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I am thinking a hung parliament





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  Reply # 1848889 19-Aug-2017 16:51
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I hope National is worried. Elections are all we have to keep our politicians honest. National has done some good things and it has some good policies, but it has also caused a fair amount of anguish through neglect and misplaced priorities. Being worried about the election can bring about some badly-needed adjustments, and if they lose, there is always the hope that the other side will do better.

 

 

 

 





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  Reply # 1848890 19-Aug-2017 16:52
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I dont really care who wins this time....being a National supporter I feel over the last 9 years they have managed the economy very well through several very tough times/events, but they have quite seriously increased poverty, screwed up housing and let the health system deteriorate. I give them 10/10 for economic issues but 4/10 for social issues. Still unsure of who I am voting for....but Labour are a serious contender without the Greens and without the Unionist Little.


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  Reply # 1848899 19-Aug-2017 17:58
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Should they be worried? Because a poll had them drop by 3 points? No. Not yet anyway, unless polls show a continued decline.




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  Reply # 1848904 19-Aug-2017 18:13
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Journeyman:

 

Should they be worried? Because a poll had them drop by 3 points? No. Not yet anyway, unless polls show a continued decline.

 

 

I don't think so much their slight drop but the opponents big surge since Little has been dropped that they should be very worried.





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  Reply # 1848951 19-Aug-2017 20:20
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Journeyman:

 

Should they be worried? Because a poll had them drop by 3 points? No. Not yet anyway, unless polls show a continued decline.

 

 

A promise for a new $1.2 - 1.4 billion dollar hospital in Dunedin suggests otherwise.

 

Yes - they are very worried.


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  Reply # 1848981 19-Aug-2017 20:55
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National will be worried their coalition partners are going down like flies. The trend for Labour is up and that gives them momentum, they are the only party that is trending up.





Mike
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A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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  Reply # 1848983 19-Aug-2017 21:01
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Polling shows that Peter Dunne will loose the Ohariu seat to Labour. So National will have to do better in September than what they did in 2014. As it seems unlikely that Act or Maori Party will be able to increase their support enough to get some more seats in Parliament. And due to the Green parties spectacular own goal scored by Metiria Turei, Labour has been able to siphon off alot of green party support.

 

Either way, Winston will get the final say. But previously, Winston's only realistic choice was National. But even if labour don't get enough votes to win, They are now in the ballpark to do a coalition with Winston. And leave the Green party out of Parliament.

 

Also there is that saying "it's the economy stupid". In other words, if the economy slows down. Whatever government is currently in power will get kicked out. Labour found that out in 2008. And now, we have the Reserve bank lending restrictions, which haven't been removed despite house prices starting to fall. Supposedly designers are already seeing a slowdown in new building design projects coming in. So when the currently committed building projects finish. The construction industry will slowdown, property prices will drop more, The banks will become super strict on their lending criteria. And since the construction industry is such a large employer, when it slows down, unemployment increases.

 

I was actually expecting things to slow down sooner than what is actually occurring. One very big sign was John Key handing the reins to Bill English. Despite John Key previously saying that he would like to lead National into a 4th term in Government.

 

So yes - National is worried. If they are not, then they should be.






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  Reply # 1849648 21-Aug-2017 09:10
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Journeyman:

 

Should they be worried? Because a poll had them drop by 3 points? No. Not yet anyway, unless polls show a continued decline.

 

 

 

 

A 3% drop when they held a majority by 1 or 2 seats with coalition members. Add in the potential loss of one of those support partners as well.

 

They know they either have to talk very nicely to Winston or else move to the opposition benches.


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  Reply # 1849709 21-Aug-2017 10:44
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Pumpedd:

 

I dont really care who wins this time....being a National supporter I feel over the last 9 years they have managed the economy very well through several very tough times/events, but they have quite seriously increased poverty, screwed up housing and let the health system deteriorate. I give them 10/10 for economic issues but 4/10 for social issues. Still unsure of who I am voting for....but Labour are a serious contender without the Greens and without the Unionist Little.

 

 

I'm kind of in the same boat as you. I usually vote National, but I feel like they have prioritised balancing the books at the expense of everything else. National and Labour are both centrist parties so ideologically are they really even that different?

 

I'm thinking I might vote Labour this time, especially since it looks like the Greens may well be out of the picture. I feel like Jacinda Adern at least genuinely wants to do right by NZ, and I like the idea of someone from my generation leading the country instead of another baby boomer.


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  Reply # 1849787 21-Aug-2017 13:10
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With Peter Dunne retiring the task just got harder for National. 





Mike
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A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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  Reply # 1849791 21-Aug-2017 13:13
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MikeB4:

 

With Peter Dunne retiring the task just got harder for National. 

 

 

Agreed, I'm sure Winston must be wetting his pants in delight.


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  Reply # 1849793 21-Aug-2017 13:16
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If NZ First can't stop the bleeding of support and NZ green cannot recover above 5% we may see a two party house. That will be very bad indeed.





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

A Tiger in Africa, probably escaped from the Zoo.

 

 


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  Reply # 1849834 21-Aug-2017 13:57
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With the greens so precarious now, I am nowhere near as nervous about a predominantly labour led govt (with NZ First as support) vs a Labour/Greens predominantly led govt. Winston can be relied upon for doing whatever is best for Winston, beyond that, nothing is certain.


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