What will the national party do now

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Forums › Politics › What will the national party do now - new leader ?

elpenguino

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#223906 23-Oct-2017 21:19

As the election dust settles, it will be natural for some in the national party to wonder if they need to jettison a leader who has lead the party to defeat twice.

Do you think there will be a leadership tussle? Who is a likely candidate?

Changing leaders creates a vacuum of history and trust - things bill english has built up over his decades in parliament. On the other hand, there is those 2 defeats.

I dunno.

Is it worth holding onto him and hoping history doesn't repeat (again) ?

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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#1888278 23-Oct-2017 21:40

Typically National and Labour hold power for either 2 or 3 terms in a row, then the other gets into power. Since National had already been in power for 3 terms, prior history said that they would have been unlikely to win this election. And the other time BE was leader was in the 2002 election, Up against Helen Clark and Labour who had only just gained power in the 1999 election.

So BE is mostly unlucky in being used to front the National party at times when history says they would be unlikely to win the election anyway.

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elpenguino

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#1888282 23-Oct-2017 21:51

indeed - he has caught the cycle badly. Still, keep him or change him?

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

Geektastic

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#1888320 24-Oct-2017 05:53

I suspect he'll quit of his own volition. I would. Who needs the agro?

Fred99

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#1888344 24-Oct-2017 08:40

It won't (or shouldn't) happen soon.

New leader needs to come in with guns blazing - so best to wait until there's something to shoot at, rather than just silly conjecture by morons like Hosking that NZers should be worried about "The $6 Latte".

Pumpedd

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#1888349 24-Oct-2017 08:47

You are forgetting....Bill leads the largest parliamentary opposition in MMP history. Should be fun and will certainly keep the new Government on their toes.

Varkk

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#1888350 24-Oct-2017 08:47

I felt Bill was planning on retiring at the end of this parliamentary term if he won. I felt his leadership was meant to be as unoffensive as possible to keep National's popularity up from Key's time to win the election. Then take the next term to build up the profile of a new leader ready for him to hand it off for the next election. With the loss I suspect we will see him step down before he is taken down. Wouldn't be surprised if National had a new leader by Christmas.

networkn

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#1888398 24-Oct-2017 10:09

Varkk:

I felt Bill was planning on retiring at the end of this parliamentary term if he won. I felt his leadership was meant to be as unoffensive as possible to keep National's popularity up from Key's time to win the election. Then take the next term to build up the profile of a new leader ready for him to hand it off for the next election. With the loss I suspect we will see him step down before he is taken down. Wouldn't be surprised if National had a new leader by Christmas.

I'm with Fred99 on this, a change of leadership would be folly given they don't have a natural replacement. I think they should have conversations and meetings and work out a strategy, work toward grooming a replacement.

bmt

574 posts

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#1889499 25-Oct-2017 19:23

Pumpedd:

You are forgetting....Bill leads the largest parliamentary opposition in MMP history. Should be fun and will certainly keep the new Government on their toes.

Which counts for nothing :)

I think we'll find a lot of retirements this term for National. Quite a few old dinosaurs there that have seen it and done it. National's going to need to bring in fresh blood if they want a chance IMO.

mattwnz

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#1889501 25-Oct-2017 19:45

These parties that lose power lie this after such a long time, essentially need a big clean-out is likely to be needed, so the party is refreshed. The thing is that last time Labour were voted out, it was because they had a perceived arrogance, and the country had become very nanny state. National has since been very hands off, but had also got that impression of arrogance to them after all this time, and a lot of problems haven't been addressed. It always happens.

The thing though is we could still have national in power, if WP had decided to choose them. He was still tossing up between the two on the final day, and it was seen as shock that he went with Labour.. It is also very unusual that National has by far the most electorate seats (40 seats, labour only won 27, and some of the smaller parties only got 1 each), so far more electorates voted for National in the electorate seats. But many peoples local MP will not be in power. I don't think this is very good for democracy in terms of people questioning decisions locally with an MP, and getting help with problems, but it doesn't seem to be something the media has really picked up on.

elpenguino

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#1889606 25-Oct-2017 21:54

Electorate MPs can still agitate for their causes - they have all the time in the world to attend those select committee hearings, write submissions , debate in the house etc etc. They're not tied up running a ministry are they :-)

Governments do listen to good ideas if they think they can do something with it. National grabbed the house insulation project from the greens for example.

Re your suggestion, yes a clean out would be predictable. After all , it is likely the nats will be in opposition for 2-3 terms which is plenty of time to bring on new talent.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

Pumpedd

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#1889614 25-Oct-2017 22:04

bmt:

Pumpedd:

You are forgetting....Bill leads the largest parliamentary opposition in MMP history. Should be fun and will certainly keep the new Government on their toes.

Which counts for nothing :)

I think we'll find a lot of retirements this term for National. Quite a few old dinosaurs there that have seen it and done it. National's going to need to bring in fresh blood if they want a chance IMO.

Speaking of dinasaurs..not exactly a fresh lineup in Labours cabinet either....

networkn

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#1889690 26-Oct-2017 09:09

Pumpedd:

bmt:

Pumpedd:

You are forgetting....Bill leads the largest parliamentary opposition in MMP history. Should be fun and will certainly keep the new Government on their toes.

Which counts for nothing :)

I think we'll find a lot of retirements this term for National. Quite a few old dinosaurs there that have seen it and done it. National's going to need to bring in fresh blood if they want a chance IMO.

Speaking of dinasaurs..not exactly a fresh lineup in Labours cabinet either....

Apparently, JA Wants a 50/50 mix of men and women as well. Not sure where she is going to pull all these female politicians from. It's wrong to assign a %, the best people should get the job regardless of their genetic makeup.

Pumpedd

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#1890906 26-Oct-2017 18:02

networkn:

Pumpedd:

bmt:

Pumpedd:

You are forgetting....Bill leads the largest parliamentary opposition in MMP history. Should be fun and will certainly keep the new Government on their toes.

Which counts for nothing :)

I think we'll find a lot of retirements this term for National. Quite a few old dinosaurs there that have seen it and done it. National's going to need to bring in fresh blood if they want a chance IMO.

Speaking of dinasaurs..not exactly a fresh lineup in Labours cabinet either....

Apparently, JA Wants a 50/50 mix of men and women as well. Not sure where she is going to pull all these female politicians from. It's wrong to assign a %, the best people should get the job regardless of their genetic makeup.

Totally agree...it must be based on ability first then gender.

Looking at the new Ministerial lineup women will do quite well from Government.

MikeAqua

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#1892594 30-Oct-2017 13:49

elpenguino:

After all , it is likely the nats will be in opposition for 2-3 terms which is plenty of time to bring on new talent.

There have been more than a few single term governments in NZ history. I would not be surprised if this was one of them. Massive promising, creation of a lot of inflated expectations among their supporters and therefore a real risk of disappointing.

Clark built successive terms on the back on things like working for families, mostly possible because of an economic boom. There isn't much budgetary scope to increase or expand income supplementation this time and there is no sign of an economic upswing.

And then there is Peters. At some point he has to stop acting like a colaition partner and start barking like a junk-yard dog again to have profile in the 2020 election.

The silver lining for labour might be an easing of house prices that they can attribute to their policies (regardless of the actual cause).

Mike

elpenguino

2916 posts

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#1892597 30-Oct-2017 13:58

But there's only been one single term government under mmp - 1996's national government

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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