NZ Election 2020

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BarTender

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#270627 19-May-2020 08:41

Instead of two threads taking their original topic down an unrelated path I thought we should start a new thread for the rekons (intentionally misspelt) for how the various political parties will do in the election.

My view is:

- Labour will come in with ~53%... And may have a MOU or similar but not confidence & supply with the Greens.

- Simon will not step down as no one wants to take his place as they will be destroyed in the election due to how National as a party operates. He will resign post election.

- NZF will retain Northland thanks to Winston but lose a lot of their party vote

- Greens will remain above 5% but only just

- ACT will be out as the sweetheart deal in Epson will be over and National will win that seat.

I'm wondering if the bookies will start taking bets on the outcome.

and

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#2486076 19-May-2020 09:01

I just hope, if Labour gets a free path, that they actually start to implement some of the policies they claim to stand for.

I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney

Varkk

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#2486085 19-May-2020 09:25

If Labour goes in to the election on above 50% they will finish in the mid to high 40s. Their vote will go to third parties similar to 2002 when National had their lowest result. A bunch of people looked for an option to moderate the Labour government and latched on to United Future. I also think if National stays low they will lose some vote which will go to Act and boost their result.

Fred99

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#2486089 19-May-2020 09:36

Simon will not step down as no one wants to take his place as they will be destroyed in the election due to how National as a party operates. He will resign post election.

He may have no choice. The knives are out - including from a past NP president:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/end-is-nigh-for-simon-bridges-who-may-have-just-two-weeks-left-as-leader-tova-o-brien-michelle-boag.html

4.5% preferred PM rating isn't a tenable position.

I think they need a complete overhaul - starting with a new party president.

brownie112

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#2486108 19-May-2020 10:15

Fred99:

Simon will not step down as no one wants to take his place as they will be destroyed in the election due to how National as a party operates. He will resign post election.

He may have no choice. The knives are out - including from a past NP president:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/end-is-nigh-for-simon-bridges-who-may-have-just-two-weeks-left-as-leader-tova-o-brien-michelle-boag.html

4.5% preferred PM rating isn't a tenable position.

I think they need a complete overhaul - starting with a new party president.

Wasn't Labour on a similar boat going into elections last time? Jacinda came in and won everyone over in hardly any time. Wonder if National could pull something like that - who is going to be their inspirational Jacinda?

elpenguino

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#2486278 19-May-2020 12:41

Fred99:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/end-is-nigh-for-simon-bridges-who-may-have-just-two-weeks-left-as-leader-tova-o-brien-michelle-boag.html

In this article Michelle Boag says ""You have had the five million locked up in Cindy's Kindy..."

Says a lot about Michelle Boag who is a hateful figure. She clearly isn't amenable to the suggestion to 'be kind'.

These of statements by Boag are really at odds with the national mood at the moment, where everyone is pulling together. That's to their detriment.

Fred99

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#2486332 19-May-2020 13:46

Michelle Boag actually said this on RNZ's "The Panel":

We’ve got to remember, this is Covid-19! Presumably there’s been 18 other coronaviruses, on the way to get to 19

(she said it seriously - not trying to be "funny")

So maybe I shouldn't have taken her comments about Bridges seriously.

Rikkitic

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#2486339 19-May-2020 13:55

People so ill-informed need to be called out when spewing their ignorance from a public forum that lends them credibility they are not entitled to.

I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney

elpenguino

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#2486356 19-May-2020 14:32

Michelle Boag is useful to National as an unfettered attack dog. She can sit back and say the shutty things that some people (supporters) think and yet can be dismissed by current National figures as a has-been.

She keeps getting invited to current affairs program for 'balance' and loyally keeps providing partisan sound bites for the media circus.

Not a very constructive approach for these challenging times.

MikeAqua

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#2486446 19-May-2020 15:56

brownie112:

Wasn't Labour on a similar boat going into elections last time? Jacinda came in and won everyone over in hardly any time. Wonder if National could pull something like that - who is going to be their inspirational Jacinda?

Much as I'd like to see it, I don't think so.

Ardern and Labour are on a massive wave of good-will as result of the COVID response. It would take a mammoth and rapid reversal in the economy to scotch that.

Also, the National party leadership at the moment is bit of poisoned chalice. Whoever is leader is dog-tucker after the election. Dissatisfaction aside - who would want it?

If Labour at going to win big, I hope they do go it alone. Kick Greens and NZF into irrelevance and oblivion.

Mike

MikeAqua

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#2486450 19-May-2020 15:58

elpenguino:

Not a very constructive approach for these challenging times.

Politics is rarely (if ever) constructive. It's an adversarial system by design.

Mike

Fred99

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#2486501 19-May-2020 17:45

MikeAqua:

elpenguino:

Not a very constructive approach for these challenging times.

Politics is rarely (if ever) constructive. It's an adversarial system by design.

Actually in response to the Chch quakes and emergency powers put in place, there wasn't much "adversarial" stuff going on from the Labour Party. IIRC ACT opposed the EQ recovery act on principle. When things were going awry (with EQC and EQR debacles) Labour's lack of holding the govt to account was lamentable.

GV27

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#2486594 19-May-2020 19:13

Reports Bridges will face a vote of No Confidence next week from his own caucus.

Muller/Kaye perhaps?

BarTender

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#2486614 19-May-2020 20:10

brownie112: Wasn't Labour on a similar boat going into elections last time? Jacinda came in and won everyone over in hardly any time. Wonder if National could pull something like that - who is going to be their inspirational Jacinda?

I think that shows the fundamental difference between the two parties.

There was a graceful transition of power from Andrew Little to Jacinda Ardern and there wasn't much discontent about the transition of power.

If Simon would be ousted then there would be the following:

1) Simon wouldn't go quietly

2) Many devoted followers of Simon would feel betrayed and would make plenty of noise about it

3) Whoever stepped into the role would have to fend off a grumpy group who represent #2.

I honestly don't think that anyone in National unless there is an implosion of the NZ economy which I personally can't see happening as long as the wage subsidy keeps on propping everyone up. Sure some businesses will go under and Tourism/Accommodation and Air travel will be hammered but the primary sector hasn't stopped and lots of pensioners haven't died so those are two demographics of NZ society have come through this relatively unscathed.

and

Handle9

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#2486703 19-May-2020 22:13

The drums are clearly beating hard for Bridges to get rolled next week. Whether or not that happens is another matter.

IMO the most likely scenario at the moment is that Labour get low-mid 40s and National get high 30s - low 40s with the greens getting 5-7%, NZ First getting 3-5% and then the normal rats and mice. It's very hard for a Labour Government to get more that 45% with the Greens taking the majority of the hard left vote.

If the economic news gets really dire that could change pretty quickly.

Handle9

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#2486704 19-May-2020 22:16

Rikkitic:

People so ill-informed need to be called out when spewing their ignorance from a public forum that lends them credibility they are not entitled to.

Michelle Boag is highly qualified to comment on political matters, just as is Mike Williams.

Just because you don't like what she says doesn't disqualify her.

She's a political activist and spews just as much nonsense as the usual left wing clowns used to when Key was in power.

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