North Island National Grid at near Capacity

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#2758049 10-Aug-2021 16:04

wellygary:

Someone has thrown Genesis under a bus here and I suspect it was T/power....

BUT its still not clear why the HVDC link was only delivering 635MW north last night... its was cranking up to 775 MW at noon today....

and also the numbers don't really stack up ,

Tokaanu is 240MW, and Waipipi is 135MW, meaning this outage is being blamed on a max of 370MW was not being utilised.... A Rankine unit is only 250MW,

My guess is that there was a whole lot more wind off line as well, but I would also like to know what happened to the cogen at Kawarau now that N Skog have closed their mill....

Hopefully we actually get a decent report from the EA on this event, but I'm not holding my breath for one....

Genesis have been taking $hit for months over burning coal to keep the lights on, and when they try to dial it back they get hammered....

Typically with the DC, there is a limiting factor with how much reserve there is in the receiving island (to simplify things). If the DC is pumping power north and is knocked out (for simplicity I'm combining both links) there needs to be adequate generation ready to go in the North Island to take up that slack.

This also limits how much Manapouri power (once its connected to the grid) can be pumped north. This is just one simple view of it, the market is a complex beast of not wanting things to go out of balance.

Oblivian

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#2758060 10-Aug-2021 16:17

There is a semi 'live' source (where the first page images come from) for the generation input loads. You can likely work out the plants by the generation type that are going hard or not...

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data

wellygary

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#2758061 10-Aug-2021 16:17

tanivula:

Typically with the DC, there is a limiting factor with how much reserve there is in the receiving island (to simplify things). If the DC is pumping power north and is knocked out (for simplicity I'm combining both links) there needs to be adequate generation ready to go in the North Island to take up that slack.

But once we surpassed the N-1 position of failing to meet demand and lights are being turned off I'm pretty sure that the requirement to "back up the back up" is not required :)

Handle9

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#2758072 10-Aug-2021 16:28

wellygary:
tanivula:

Typically with the DC, there is a limiting factor with how much reserve there is in the receiving island (to simplify things). If the DC is pumping power north and is knocked out (for simplicity I'm combining both links) there needs to be adequate generation ready to go in the North Island to take up that slack.

But once we surpassed the N-1 position of failing to meet demand and lights are being turned off I'm pretty sure that the requirement to "back up the back up" is not required :)

It's not a backup to the backup, it's ensuring generation isn't damaged through a catastrophic grid event. The lights going off for a short time is a minor impact.

mattwnz

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#2758086 10-Aug-2021 17:13

duckDecoy:

undancy that has to be built into the system to handle that one unlucky day when the sun isn't shining that much and the wind wasn't blowing quite right is mind blowing.

More hydro would be really helpful, but getting resource consent is just too hard.

Isn't that why they are redoing the resource management act? The fact is that we need hydro to meet emissions targets and the world is stuffed if things are not done urgently to reduce emissions. Is there really such a big environmental impact with hydro, it creates new lakes etc. But is disrupts property ownership.

But again it comes down to what population do we want NZ to have. significantly increasing the population to 5 million people needs a lot of money in investment and planning, which doesn't appear to have occurred in many areas in New Zealand. NZ is in a bit of a mess at the moment IMO, and I think we are going to end up losing a lot of younger people overseas.

PolicyGuy

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#2758106 10-Aug-2021 17:48

rb99: Nationalise it. Whatever was privatised, do the opposite.

Scott3:
Going forward we need one of the following:

Re-nationalize the sector
Re-work the market to encourage the behavior we want.
Ditch the market, and have a regulator dictate what is a reasonable amount of income / profit for each power station based on its age, operating costs etc.
empacher48: As long as the government wants to buy my meridian and genesis shares back somewhere more than the market rate, then that’s fine.

It's actually not that hard - except politically LOL:

Nationalise the Gentailers and announce that all shares on issue will be compulsorily acquired at the average price in the week / month / quarter before the nationalisation
Finance the share buy-back through issuing "NZ Energy Bonds" with a coupon of 1% more than the 90-day bank bill rate - or whatever rate that will give investors just a teeny bit less than the dividends have been returning.
Give former Gentailer shareholders the option to take cash or the new Energy Bonds

The government can now functionally merge the organisations, possibly with TransPower too, saving millions of dollars a year in wildly inflated CEO, CFO, Marketing Manager etc salaries and in Directors fees too.
Require that the new CEO and half the Board hold qualifications in Electrical Engineering, and give it a charter that says the first priority is to keep the lights on, the second priority is to operate an efficient and cost-effective network, and the third priority is not to gouge consumers too badly

They could call it, I dunno, maybe NZED?

tdgeek

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#2758115 10-Aug-2021 18:18

duckDecoy:

Groucho:

If we're serious about being 100% renewable energy, tidal has to be the way forward?

I doubt we will ever be 100% fully renewable. The government and transpower have been running models around this scenario and the amount of redundancy that has to be built into the system to handle that one unlucky day when the sun isn't shining that much and the wind wasn't blowing quite right is mind blowing.

More hydro would be really helpful, but getting resource consent is just too hard.

Probably. I read here that going 100% renewable would put power prices up, go figure. Maybe we need more coal turbines???

tdgeek

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#2758116 10-Aug-2021 18:23

Handle9:

It's not a backup to the backup, it's ensuring generation isn't damaged through a catastrophic grid event. The lights going off for a short time is a minor impact.

I agree with that. Last time was 10 years ago, this time lights were off for 2 hours max for 20,000 people or homes, and apparently, Transpower took out twice as many as was needed. A blip. When my power went out with EQ's, also for just hours (quite a few hours) it wasn't a big deal. if it happens often, thats another matter.

tdgeek

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#2758118 10-Aug-2021 18:26

mattwnz:

Isn't that why they are redoing the resource management act? The fact is that we need hydro to meet emissions targets and the world is stuffed if things are not done urgently to reduce emissions. Is there really such a big environmental impact with hydro, it creates new lakes etc. But is disrupts property ownership.

But again it comes down to what population do we want NZ to have. significantly increasing the population to 5 million people needs a lot of money in investment and planning, which doesn't appear to have occurred in many areas in New Zealand. NZ is in a bit of a mess at the moment IMO, and I think we are going to end up losing a lot of younger people overseas.

You and your property ownership! :-)

A new hydro scheme will impact the environment. In the past here I calculated 75 square miles. Not a big deal. Unless you are passionate about Matagouri being wiped out in 75 square miles. There is a silly gulf between being green and being environmental.

tdgeek

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#2758120 10-Aug-2021 18:30

PolicyGuy:

rb99: Nationalise it. Whatever was privatised, do the opposite.

Scott3:
Going forward we need one of the following:

Re-nationalize the sector
Re-work the market to encourage the behavior we want.
Ditch the market, and have a regulator dictate what is a reasonable amount of income / profit for each power station based on its age, operating costs etc.
empacher48: As long as the government wants to buy my meridian and genesis shares back somewhere more than the market rate, then that’s fine.

It's actually not that hard - except politically LOL:

Nationalise the Gentailers and announce that all shares on issue will be compulsorily acquired at the average price in the week / month / quarter before the nationalisation
Finance the share buy-back through issuing "NZ Energy Bonds" with a coupon of 1% more than the 90-day bank bill rate - or whatever rate that will give investors just a teeny bit less than the dividends have been returning.
Give former Gentailer shareholders the option to take cash or the new Energy Bonds
The government can now functionally merge the organisations, possibly with TransPower too, saving millions of dollars a year in wildly inflated CEO, CFO, Marketing Manager etc salaries and in Directors fees too.
Require that the new CEO and half the Board hold qualifications in Electrical Engineering, and give it a charter that says the first priority is to keep the lights on, the second priority is to operate an efficient and cost-effective network, and the third priority is not to gouge consumers too badly

They could call it, I dunno, maybe NZED?

Or MED? Municipal Electricity Department? (I'm logging my trademark now :-) )

On a serious note, make Transpower, the SOE, the sole generator. The rest can retail as much as they like, competition works. They can compete for a margin, while the generator prices itself to make a margin based solely on future asset upgrades.

tdgeek

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#2758139 10-Aug-2021 18:44

The plot thickens

Transpower made an error that made power cuts on Monday night worse than they needed to be, the company’s chief executive Alison Andrew has admitted.

The national grid operator asked some lines companies including Wel Networks in Hamilton to cut more power than was required by a generation shortfall on Monday night, she said.

However, Andrew has not let generator Genesis Energy off the hook for some responsibility for the outage.

About 20,000 homes in the central and eastern North Island were left without power on Monday evening after a cold snap coincided with an unplanned outage of Genesis’ Tokaanu hydro power station on the Tongariro River and a drop in wind speeds that affected wind generation.

Andrew would not comment on whether she believed Genesis had time to fire-up a third coal-fired turbine at its Huntly power station in time to help meet evening peak power demand after Transpower issued a request at 1.02pm on Monday for power companies to make more generation available.

We do need to find the cause and fix that, but these days its about blame. And a week of headlines

shk292

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#2758200 10-Aug-2021 20:47

tdgeek:

A new hydro scheme will impact the environment. In the past here I calculated 75 square miles. Not a big deal. Unless you are passionate about Matagouri being wiped out in 75 square miles. There is a silly gulf between being green and being environmental.

Ironically, it always seems to be the Greens who are most against novel energy generation schemes such as more hydro, or tidal power - while telling us at the same time that we're all doomed if we don't reduce emissions. Is it time to accept that we might make a unique species of snail extinct, or trample someone's mana, in order to gain independence from thermal electricity generation? If you look at NZ's hydro lakes - eg Benmore, Ruataniwha, Dunstan - they are generally fantastic recreational resources as well as clean power supplies.

Fred99

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#2758217 10-Aug-2021 21:27

shk292:

tdgeek:

A new hydro scheme will impact the environment. In the past here I calculated 75 square miles. Not a big deal. Unless you are passionate about Matagouri being wiped out in 75 square miles. There is a silly gulf between being green and being environmental.

Ironically, it always seems to be the Greens who are most against novel energy generation schemes such as more hydro, or tidal power - while telling us at the same time that we're all doomed if we don't reduce emissions. Is it time to accept that we might make a unique species of snail extinct, or trample someone's mana, in order to gain independence from thermal electricity generation? If you look at NZ's hydro lakes - eg Benmore, Ruataniwha, Dunstan - they are generally fantastic recreational resources as well as clean power supplies.

"Greens" aren't immune from entanglement in the tragedy of the commons.

dantheperson

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#2758229 10-Aug-2021 21:36

I don't see us ever putting in any significant hydro. Back in the day the environment suffered but it was for the greater good.

Today, the environment suffers and it's for the benefit of the shareholders.

It would have to be the government doing it, but who has any faith that in a few years some rightwing government wont flog it off?

Handle9

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#2758246 10-Aug-2021 22:37

tdgeek:
Handle9:

It's not a backup to the backup, it's ensuring generation isn't damaged through a catastrophic grid event. The lights going off for a short time is a minor impact.

I agree with that. Last time was 10 years ago, this time lights were off for 2 hours max for 20,000 people or homes, and apparently, Transpower took out twice as many as was needed. A blip. When my power went out with EQ's, also for just hours (quite a few hours) it wasn't a big deal. if it happens often, thats another matter.

Don't get me wrong. The grid having to load shed is a major incident - it should never have to happen.

The difference between this and a major grid event is the potential for physical damage caused by insufficient supply and subsequent frequency collapse. It really doesn't bear thinking about, it could take months to repair.

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