Time to give electricity the flick?

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#1764051 13-Apr-2017 20:54

Super cheap spot prices over whole country right now. Around 0.5c per unit. After 9 pm ill only be paying approx 6c per unit including all lines fees and gst.

nickb800

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#1773995 2-May-2017 07:57

Price warning from the app...spot prices high across the country...Flick's website is down :(

timmmay

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#1773998 2-May-2017 08:03

Flick website works fine for me, with power at 18c/kwh in Wellington and possibly still climbing. A spike on the coldest morning of the year so far isn't unexpected, but I'd have thought they'd have bought more generation online.

voy1d

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#1773999 2-May-2017 08:12

timmmay:

Flick website works fine for me, with power at 18c/kwh in Wellington and possibly still climbing. A spike on the coldest morning of the year so far isn't unexpected, but I'd have thought they'd have bought more generation online.

Given the low lake levels in the south island we're missing a decent chunk of generation as we are in a "dry sequence". However, TCC and at least one Rankine unit are running. Also it looks like one of the Stratford Peakers is also running.

So the driver is soft wind + low lakes from the big lakes in the South Island really.

timmmay

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#1774002 2-May-2017 08:17

I see the lake levels in the south are a bit lower than average, but the north is better than average. Still, with winter coming, you'd think that'd increase before too long.

Edit - and now the Flick website is down for me. 502 "bad gateway" suggests their web server is available but the app server is overloaded.

voy1d

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#1774005 2-May-2017 08:26

You are right, SI Hydro is above average for this time of year, however that's controlled storage, which essentially only accounts for the Waitaki scheme (Pukaki, Tekapo) and this is making up the bulk of SI Hydro generation at the moment (I suspect it is running close to capacity)

Contact's Clutha System (600 MW) and Meridian's Manapouri scheme (800 MW) are uncontrolled and have not received a significant rainfall in over 12 weeks, meaning they are both very empty. For example, if you look on the Meridian Hydro page here you can see Te Anau is actually below the main range by about 20 cms, a very significant amount. Contact don't make that information available on their website, but Wakatipu, Hawea etc are all empty and the only discharge really is for environmental reasons (e.g. minimum discharge in resource consent).

Taupo conversely is very full.

The actual inflow season for hydro lakes in the South Island is actually November / December (which is why you sometimes see spill) as a lot of rain that falls in the Autumn / Winter actually falls as snow (I believe it was down to 800 metres on the weekend).

But the driver is from Clutha and Manapouri where there is almost 1400 MW of capacity, you'd likely see around 400 MW of generation at the moment due to the low lake levels.

I'd recommend using https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz over the Flick app, it might give more useful information (e.g. 5 minute and NRS schedule data)

timmmay

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#1774008 2-May-2017 08:31

I wonder if this means we're going to get more spikes or have higher prices than average for the next little while. Things have been pretty flat, but the start of the cold weather is when the higher peak time prices usually start.

pogo

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#1774014 2-May-2017 08:46

Before Flick went down I got a screenshot of 1047.2c/unit, but nothing remotely that high was showing on http://www.em6live.co.nz/ or https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz/.

What gives?

dantheperson

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#1774093 2-May-2017 10:47

voy1d:
Taupo conversely is very full.

Ahh, so this is why power is currently cheaper in the north island?

al8565

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#1775419 4-May-2017 10:39

pogo: Before Flick went down I got a screenshot of 1047.2c/unit, but nothing remotely that high was showing on http://www.em6live.co.nz/ or https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz/.

What gives?

2 days later and the actual price is on Flick's usage graph. Looks like it didn't go any higher than about 34 cents. Unsure how the app got it so drastically wrong, we stopped making out morning coffee!!!

pogo

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#1775422 4-May-2017 10:49

Looks like it was only the forecast prices that went crazy (the NRS is the forecast and the RTP is the 5 min price):

https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz/prices

So I assume that Flick reacts to the forecast price. What worries me is that this happened at about 7:30am but I got a notification at 8:15ish. Unless there was another event at 8:15?

voy1d

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#1775982 4-May-2017 23:36

The reason for that was a spring washer in that schedule - which later washed out. The cause of this was derived from the outage on the ASB_TIM_TWZ_2 circuit, which left only two remaining circuits between TWZ and ISL and thus there was no solve for getting sufficient load into the ISL node (at least in the market model)

I suspect looking at this that Orion were load managing, because the constraint is specifically a STABILITY constraint.

timmmay

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#1776032 5-May-2017 08:23

voy1d:

The reason for that was a spring washer in that schedule - which later washed out. The cause of this was derived from the outage on the ASB_TIM_TWZ_2 circuit, which left only two remaining circuits between TWZ and ISL and thus there was no solve for getting sufficient load into the ISL node (at least in the market model)

I suspect looking at this that Orion were load managing, because the constraint is specifically a STABILITY constraint.

Spring washer?

miked

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#1776045 5-May-2017 09:12

timmmay:

Spring washer?

Yup! Exactly that. It gives a very good visual image of the discontinuity jump of the price at one point in the circuit.

Here's a video with more info. I skipped the 3 backstory ones, as the last will be sufficient for most people to get the idea... but if you want to really understand it, click back to the first video on the right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yp2a7KY9pNY&list=PLXUccGn4ptEO5e0-MV37_vWPWerhB8yak&index=4

timmmay

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#1776050 5-May-2017 09:27

It seems like the whole pricing system is more complex than it really needs to be.

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