As discussed above, I've reintroduced my calculated active cases, based on a 17-day infection time as the dotted blue line. The solid blue line shows the MoH announced values, and you can see how the deviate from each other.
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As discussed above, I've reintroduced my calculated active cases, based on a 17-day infection time as the dotted blue line. The solid blue line shows the MoH announced values, and you can see how the deviate from each other.
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A variation of the McDowall/The Spinoff plot with new recoveries added alternatively as percentages of active cases 5, 7 & 14 days prior. New recoveries plotted are centred averages over three days to provide a bit of smoothing.
Five or possibly seven days prior seems to give the most consistent trend (at ~6% of active cases)? Or should the rate of recovery drop over time if less affected people recover first (as per the 10 days prior trend)? In all cases the numbers of recoveries over the last few days is a smaller proportion of active cases.
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Here's the graph for Monday 4th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff
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Update of an earlier plot (#2471492) comparing NZ to Taiwan & HK. Vietnam & S. Korea now added. Despite no new cases cases today (in fact none with 'Date of report' = 2 or 3 May), we are still a long way from matching the four Asian countries. And a long way short of eliminating the virus. Taiwan can now probably be considered to have eliminated the virus locally (full 3 weeks with no local cases) and Vietnam not far behind (2.5 weeks no local cases). Rates of local cases in HK and S. Korea are about an order of magnitude lower than in NZ. Taiwan and Vietnam, two orders of magnitude lower than in NZ.
Forward projection for NZ is based on 'local' cases in the last 3 weeks of L4 which is shown by the heavy black line. The small discrepancies between this and the grey line for NZ local cases are because I changed my definition of 'local' case for NZ. Previously included all cases not classified as 'Overseas travel' by MOH. I have revised this due to recent cases where the time between return to NZ and 'Date of report' is more than 30 days, and in particular one where someone returned from the Cook Islands 34 days previously (there being no COVID-19 cases in the Cook Islands, at least as of 5 days ago). Now treating cases as 'Imported' only if arrival from overseas was less than 3 weeks before the 'Date of report' (& probably should cut that back to 14 - 16 days max). 'Local' is everything else. Does raise questions re where infections did come from in many of those who returned to NZ more than 14 days before the 'Date of report'.
The NZ data plotted includes Confirmed and Probable. This is mainly because some Probable cases are situations where no testing was performed due to risk of traumatising patients. Applies especially to dementia cases and young children (only 20% of cases are Confirmed for children under 10 years old). Need more info about other Probable cases. Would also be good to see antibody testing of Probable cases to confirm whether they had been infected. Removing Probable cases still leaves NZ well above South Korea & HK. And for HK at least, the definition of imported is also tighter (max of 14 days from arrival to report date in all except case. Ninety five percent < 10 days after arrival in HK).
Will be interesting to see how we do track under L3 relative to the projection from the L4 data. Still a lot of Waitakere nurses in isolation!
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Chile not performing well under full lockdowns only in specific regions
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Singapore cases tracking back down slowly.
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Here's the graph for Tuesday 5th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff
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Incidentally, my 17-day total of active cases is predicting 0 active cases on 18th May, assuming no new cases are found.
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