2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1403 | 1404 | 1405 | 1406 | 1407 | 1408 | 1409 | 1410 | 1411 | 1412 | 1413 | ... | 2429

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739450 6-Jul-2021 09:07

It's not a political decision on how many deaths is ok.

You do all you can, then you open up.

Those that we assume have chosen deaths over lives have already done so from day 1. In those countries decisions of lockdown were made based on hospital capacity, not necessarily deaths.

FineWine

3115 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2447

Trusted

Nurse (R)

Lifetime subscriber

#2739460 6-Jul-2021 09:31

A couple of articles from todays Herald.

Mmmmm - Worrying:

Covid 19 coronavirus: Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as Delta variant spreads (NZ Herald 6 Jul, 2021 05:56 AM)

The efficacy of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in preventing Covid-19 infections has declined by nearly a third in Israel, largely due to the spread of the Delta variant, data from the country's health ministry suggests.

Covid 19 coronavirus: Lambda strain hits UK (NZ Herald 6 Jul, 2021 06:38 AM)

The world's most transmissible Covid-19 strain has infected the UK with six cases reported and worrying research it may be more infectious than the Delta variant.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Oblivian

7345 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2117

ID Verified

#2739473 6-Jul-2021 09:47

This is from a QLD Australian Senator. Obviously a cut down diagram to get the point across as simple as possible. But everyone is looking into it a lot deeper.

It's not getting a lot of love. Usual discrimination/unethical/unmoral and badly designed etc etc

Img too big, click here

wellygary

8816 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5300

#2739482 6-Jul-2021 10:06

FineWine:

A couple of articles from todays Herald.

Mmmmm - Worrying:

Covid 19 coronavirus: Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as Delta variant spreads (NZ Herald 6 Jul, 2021 05:56 AM)

The efficacy of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in preventing Covid-19 infections has declined by nearly a third in Israel, largely due to the spread of the Delta variant, data from the country's health ministry suggests.

Yes, but when you get past the headline you find that the Vaccine is still remarkably good at preventing severe/deadly infections...

"The vaccine is still conferring strong protection against severe symptoms of the virus, with hospital admission rates remaining low. The ministry's data shows the vaccine's efficacy in preventing hospital admission was 93 per cent from June 6 to July 3, compared to a 98 per cent rate in the previous period."

and

It is encouraging that we still maintain zero deaths for the last 12 days,

Covid 19 coronavirus: Lambda strain hits UK (NZ Herald 6 Jul, 2021 06:38 AM)

The world's most transmissible Covid-19 strain has infected the UK with six cases reported and worrying research it may be more infectious than the Delta variant.

Its a news.com.au story and its highly sensationalised,

"The mutation was originally discovered in Peru and is related to 81 per cent of the country's cases since April.

Yes, it might be more transmissible, but Delta was never a huge variant in South America, so its not like we have good head to head data

Delta is pushing over 90% of cases in Many countries, so 80% for Lambda is a bit meh...

Also Peru has not got great testing capabilities, so whether the cases that are being tested are representative is not clear

wellygary

8816 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5300

#2739483 6-Jul-2021 10:08

Oblivian:

This is from a QLD Australian Senator. Obviously a cut down diagram to get the point across as simple as possible. But everyone is looking into it a lot deeper.

It's not getting a lot of love. Usual discrimination/unethical/unmoral and badly designed etc etc

Img too big, click here

Here are the main points

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739503 6-Jul-2021 10:11

I'm just starting to get my head around how intense re-opening is going to be for NZ.

My Partner and child both have what we suspect to be RSV virus (partner getting covid-19 test later today to verify it is not that). In short it's pritty nasty, and is a virus that NZ elmininated in our lockdown's last year, but aussie did not. It has been reported that RSV it turned up in NZ pritty much when the bubble opened, and has grown in a exponential style way since.

Not at a point where hospitals are "flooded" and overloaded with these cases combined with their normal winter load.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/breathless-babies-battling-rsv-virus-flooding-hospitals-some-too-sick-to-breastfeed/D423REU7JXNRDB7YNGVHGM4H5Y/

Kinda worrying given that is without any covid-19, influenza, and what ever other pathogens both NZ and Australia eliminated last year, but continue to circulate in the northern hemisphere.

I think we will pretty much need to time our re-opening so it is in summer, and possibly stack it on top of some light social distancing requirements in order to avoid crushing out hospital system.

Batman: It's not a political decision on how many deaths is ok.

You do all you can, then you open up.

Those that we assume have chosen deaths over lives have already done so from day 1. In those countries decisions of lockdown were made based on hospital capacity, not necessarily deaths.

It is absolutely a decision as to what is acceptable.

If there was a pathogen outside NZ that was capable of killing half our population, it would be worth staying closed for potentially decades...

Also there isn't really a defined point where we have done "all we can". - As an example, it it likely that tweaked vaccines / boosters that are highly effective against delta (and lambda?) strains will become available in the next several months, and the decision will need to be made if we wait for them to be rolled out to our population. As with tech, there is always the next thing on the horizon.

Mighty Ape

Shop now at Mighty Ape (affiliate link).

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739509 6-Jul-2021 10:13

KrazyKid:

Seems the UK is set to open up almost fully in two weeks no matter what.

Singapore has the roadmap as well, and obviously Australia. re UK I would have thought Delta would have stretched the opening up to have a higher level of vaccinations. I see Scotland is topping the vast majority of Covid hotspots for Europe, I'll try to re find the link. Scottish PM says the vaccine rollout will take over from lockdowns.

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739513 6-Jul-2021 10:17

Scott3:

Also there isn't really a defined point where we have done "all we can". - As an example, it it likely that tweaked vaccines / boosters that are highly effective against delta (and lambda?) strains will become available in the next several months, and the decision will need to be made if we wait for them to be rolled out to our population. As with tech, there is always the next thing on the horizon.

Agree. We can potter away this year on our rollout, look at what pans out in the UK, what new strains occur, what vaccine advances are made. Armed with all those goodies we can make the decisions that need to be made, rather than take a punt and hope

MikeB4

MikeB4
18776 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 12769

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2739520 6-Jul-2021 10:32

The decisions being made now have very little to with welfare and health especially in the UK, US, Australia and to a degree in Aotearoa. The decisions are being boardroom driven via intense lobbying of governments. The pressure and impression of urgency is about profit with spin doctors trying hardtop put a positive spin on it. The higher up the food chain one is the easier it is to isolate and protect ones self.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

ezbee

2659 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3105

#2739526 6-Jul-2021 10:41

I suppose we do have the advantage with seeing how these things progress in other nations many months ahead of us.
Our main issue is long term underinvestment in healthcare as our population has grown.
The big plan was a whole department of cost cutting after all.
With Australia looking at our hospital staff to solve their staffing problems too.
I expect we have little healthcare capability to deal with a real outbreak, even a Fiji size one, or a living with it one.

UK scientists caution that lifting of Covid rules is like building ‘variant factories’
Experts react with dismay to ‘frightening’ attitude of Sajid Javid towards removing protections
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/uk-scientists-caution-that-lifting-of-covid-rules-is-like-building-variant-factories

""
Reacting to the comments, Prof Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science, tweeted: “It is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who still thinks Covid is flu. Who is unconcerned at levels of infection. Who doesn’t realise that those who do best for health, also do best for the economy. Who wants to ditch all protections while only half of us are vaccinated.
""

On vaccinating children, USA has already approved ages down to 12 and in principle there should be no reason that younger ages will not be approved as studies on safety and dose come in.
Afterall we have a lot of various vaccines approved for children.

The National Immunisation Schedule is the series of vaccines that are offered free to babies, children, adolescents and adults.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/preventative-health-wellness/immunisation/new-zealand-immunisation-schedule

2021 Recommended Vaccinations for Infants and Children (birth through 6 years) Parent-Friendly Version
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/easy-to-read/child-easyread.html

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739559 6-Jul-2021 10:48

I agree with all that. Annecdotally I feel that many people are over it, sick of lockdowns, etc. So the number that say protect us is probably being over run by the ones that say I want my holiday. And that feeds into Governments caving in as the tide is changing in the populous. Not saying thats ideal, just saying what I feel is changing. One day there will be a realisation that we are all vaccinated we cant be locked away for ever, but that day isnt here yet, that day is when everyone who wants to and can do, is vaccinated. But the people dont seem to want to wait. Its been 18 months what's another 6? Boris has already said, sadly we will get many deaths, but thats probably what the UK citizens want now it looks like. I can probably understand that as unlike here, they have been in virtual lockdown forever.

AliExpress

Shop now on AliExpress (affiliate link).

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739563 6-Jul-2021 10:54

ezbee:

I suppose we do have the advantage with seeing how these things progress in other nations many months ahead of us.
Our main issue is long term underinvestment in healthcare as our population has grown.
The big plan was a whole department of cost cutting after all.
With Australia looking at our hospital staff to solve their staffing problems too.
I expect we have little healthcare capability to deal with a real outbreak, even a Fiji size one, or a living with it one.

UK scientists caution that lifting of Covid rules is like building ‘variant factories’
Experts react with dismay to ‘frightening’ attitude of Sajid Javid towards removing protections
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/uk-scientists-caution-that-lifting-of-covid-rules-is-like-building-variant-factories

""
Reacting to the comments, Prof Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science, tweeted: “It is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who still thinks Covid is flu. Who is unconcerned at levels of infection. Who doesn’t realise that those who do best for health, also do best for the economy. Who wants to ditch all protections while only half of us are vaccinated.
""

When you read this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300350326/prime-minister-boris-johnson-uk-must-live-with-covid19-virus-but-restrictions-can-ease

Its Boris saying we give up, or the people give up, so from July 19, its personal choice

DS248

1702 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 771

Lifetime subscriber

#2739564 6-Jul-2021 10:57

wellygary:

...

Yes, but when you get past the headline you find that the Vaccine is still remarkably good at preventing severe/deadly infections...

"The vaccine is still conferring strong protection against severe symptoms of the virus, with hospital admission rates remaining low. The ministry's data shows the vaccine's efficacy in preventing hospital admission was 93 per cent from June 6 to July 3, compared to a 98 per cent rate in the previous period."

and

It is encouraging that we still maintain zero deaths for the last 12 days,

...

'Seriously ill' cases have now started trending up in Israel, albeit still small numbers and with a (not unexpected) 1-2 week lag on the (continuing) increase in new daily case numbers.

Average new 'seriously ill' cases have risen to 4/day average over the last four days compared with 2/week three weeks ago. A factor of 14 increase. Which is about the same as the increase in case numbers was ~10 days ago (new cases/day now up by a factor of 25-35 on the minimum 3 - 4 weeks ago).

Back in latter half of Jan - early Feb, the ratio of 'seriously ill' to new daily cases ~10 days previously was very roughly 2% (depends on averaging etc). Ten days ago the 7-day average rate of new cases was ~205 (climbing steeply). The current average of four 'seriously ill' cases/day therefore corresponds to a seriously ill' case ratio of 2% (10-day lag), basically the same as it was back in the latter half of January.

Deaths not impacted yet (only one in the 3 weeks) but still too early to know if these will follow the recent upwards trend in new 'seriously ill' cases.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2739623 6-Jul-2021 11:30

600 staff from 2 hospitals in nsw in isolation

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/05/sydney-hospitals-on-red-alert-as-more-than-600-nsw-health-workers-in-isolation-over-covid-case-contact

Rikkitic

Awrrr
19071 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 16319

Lifetime subscriber

#2739629 6-Jul-2021 11:42

Batman: 600 staff from 2 hospitals in nsw in isolation

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/05/sydney-hospitals-on-red-alert-as-more-than-600-nsw-health-workers-in-isolation-over-covid-case-contact

This is simply unbelievable. Words fail me.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

1 | ... | 1403 | 1404 | 1405 | 1406 | 1407 | 1408 | 1409 | 1410 | 1411 | 1412 | 1413 | ... | 2429