2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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297 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2754236 3-Aug-2021 09:15

Fourpeak:

So let me get this right, your saying that someone choosing not to get vaccinated somehow makes it less safe for vaccinated people?? That doesn't make sense to me. Eventually everyone is going to catch Covid19. Those that are vaccinated may have less symptoms but will still catch and spead Covid. While those unvaccinated will catch Covid recover and gain natural immunity which is what happens to 99.5% of people while the other small percentage of people will die. No Need for vaccine passports and other discriminating rules.

But even your 99.5% don't all fully recover do they. Those that end up in ICU and on ventilators are apparently 'never the same again'.

freitasm

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#2754238 3-Aug-2021 09:17

I am exercising my right of not having anti-vaxxer comments here. Fourpeak won't be able to respond anymore.

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zenourn

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#2754247 3-Aug-2021 09:23

I'm very much in favour of the Pfizer vaccine, have had both shots, and all evidence currently indicates it minimises the risk at both the individual and population level. However, I think there is still room to learn from new data that may not be so positive.

Fred99:

It's not true that "natural immunity" gives better protection that the mRNA vaccines. Quite the reverse:

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-generated-from-covid-19-vaccines-differs-from-an-infection/

That is a laboratory study, and suggests that antibody immunity acquired by natural infection or different modes of vaccination may vary. It doesn't give epidemiological evidence that mRNA vaccines give better protection.

It's a valid questions to look at how infection rates may differ between different modes of acquired immunity. The claim that "natural immunity gives better protection" seems to be based upon https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762

A rather unreliable source, but the numbers on the surface are:

72/835,792 ~ 0.009% cases in previously infected
3,000/5,193,499 ~ 0.06% cases in vaccinated
4,600/3,000,000 ~ 0.15% cases in unvaccinated and not known to be previously infected (by inference of total pop of 9 million)

Far more detail is required to determine what methodological issues, biases, etc may be present. I suspect there are likely several. If there is some truth in these values, possible explanations are that Israel did start it's vaccine campaign at the end of last year and we know that immunity reduces with time. Pfizer is currently indicating that a booster shot is likely going to be required between 6 and 12 months after being fully vaccinated and I don't think this is just profit motivated. We also always need to be open to the possibility that processes such as original antigenic sin or antibody-dependent enhancement could potentially happen in some sub-populations with variants and waning immunity.

At this stage there isn't enough evidence to answer whether "natural immunity gives better protection" but it wouldn't say it is impossible. In any case I really only think it is of academic interest as achieving natural immunity has a much higher risk of mortality or morbidity that should be avoided.

dafman

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#2754249 3-Aug-2021 09:25

Fourpeak:

So let me get this right, your saying that someone choosing not to get vaccinated somehow makes it less safe for vaccinated people?? That doesn't make sense to me. Eventually everyone is going to catch Covid19. Those that are vaccinated may have less symptoms

Or more specifically, those that are vaccinated are less likely to be hospitalised or die.

I understand why some people may be hesitant about the MRNA technology. But's it's not that new now, it's been in use for over a year, and administered to over a billion people. And in the entire history of all vaccines, there have been no adverse long term impacts from any vaccines that weren't picked up within a couple of months of approval for use.

In a perfect world, I'd prefer to not have a MRNA vaccine. But the evidence is pretty clear that the health risks from Covid are way greater than health risks from MRNA, so I'm choosing the vaccine over the disease - because, as you said, everyone is eventually going to get Covid, so I'm all for maximising my chances for survival.

empacher48

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#2754252 3-Aug-2021 09:30

Fourpeak:

So let me get this right, your saying that someone choosing not to get vaccinated somehow makes it less safe for vaccinated people?? That doesn't make sense to me. Eventually everyone is going to catch Covid19. Those that are vaccinated may have less symptoms but will still catch and spead Covid. While those unvaccinated will catch Covid recover and gain natural immunity which is what happens to 99.5% of people while the other small percentage of people will die. No Need for vaccine passports and other discriminating rules.

You are correct by saying that it is a chance that everyone will catch COVID, whether they are vaccinated or not.

However when you say that unvaccinated people makes it less safe for vaccinated people. That part is also true. As can be seen in NSW right now with their ICU and hospital beds starting to fill up with COVID patients (the unvaccinated outnumber the vaccinated) There are over 50 people taking ICU beds and over 25 on ventilators. Currently 92% of the people on ventilators in NSW are unvaccinated (https://www.sbs.com.au/news/make-august-the-month-we-get-vaccinated-nsw-records-239-new-local-covid-19-cases).

Every bed used in a hospital, ICU or ventilator is one less bed that a vaccinated person cannot access should they be involved in a car crash, have a heart attack, stroke. It also stops vaccinated people accessing surgeries as when the country goes to Alert Level 3 and above, all non-essential surgeries are cancelled or delayed in order to prep the health system for the inevitable increase in COVID patients. Unfortunately some of those people who are waiting for those surgeries may be in pain or die.

So yes, your choice not to be vaccinated against this will affect the vaccinated population and make life "less safe".

DS248

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#2754263 3-Aug-2021 09:55

neb: ...

In terms of the other response challenging Fourpeak to explain how mRNA vaccines are made and how they work, any Fox viewer knows the answer: They're made from the blood of aborted foetuses, they alter your DNA, they cause infertility in 97% of recipients, and vast numbers of people who have had it have died but all the news is being suppressed by everyone except Fox. Oh, and Bing searches.

You forgot to include the nano-5G transmitters in the vaccine ingredients 😉.

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Fred99

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#2754299 3-Aug-2021 10:44

zenourn:

Far more detail is required to determine what methodological issues, biases, etc may be present. I suspect there are likely several. If there is some truth in these values, possible explanations are that Israel did start it's vaccine campaign at the end of last year and we know that immunity reduces with time. Pfizer is currently indicating that a booster shot is likely going to be required between 6 and 12 months after being fully vaccinated and I don't think this is just profit motivated. We also always need to be open to the possibility that processes such as original antigenic sin or antibody-dependent enhancement could potentially happen in some sub-populations with variants and waning immunity.

At this stage there isn't enough evidence to answer whether "natural immunity gives better protection" but it wouldn't say it is impossible. In any case I really only think it is of academic interest as achieving natural immunity has a much higher risk of mortality or morbidity that should be avoided.

So do I. There's a confounding factor with population studies assessing duration of immunity from vaccination vs infection. The first to be vaccinated were the "at risk" groups - elderly and/or with co-morbidities which reduced vaccine efficacy in trials. Those least at risk from infection were vaccinated last.

Has there any report of ADE with billions of doses of assorted vaccines administered?

(Even with Delta resulting in more breakthrough infections, if ADE was a thing then it conflicts with clear evidence that being vaccinated massively reduces the chance of getting severe covid)

KrazyKid

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#2754335 3-Aug-2021 11:37

freitasm:

I am exercising my right of not having anti-vaxxer comments here. Fourpeak won't be able to respond anymore.

Personally I find this a disappointing decision. Fourpeak only stated their opinion, didn't try to spread any false statements and only crime seems to be willing to not explain their opinion further when pressed.

Banning people from a discussion forum for basically stating personal view is not going to convince anyone to change there mind.

(I also strong disagree with those who aggressively insulted Fourpeak for the same reason - insults are not going to change anyone's opinion.)

I have had my second covid shot as I an immune compromised and personally wish we would magically get to 100% of population vaccinated (Sadly don't see how that will happen) so can't be called an anti-vaxx person my any measure.

DS248

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#2754337 3-Aug-2021 11:40

How statistics can deceive 101.

Below is Israeli data for currently active patients expressed as the rate of serious illness per 100k population in three groups: unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, and fully vaccinated. These are for the total population.

Based on these stats it would appear to be better not to be vaccinated ...! And no doubt will be used by some to justify that position.

However, splitting the data into just two age groups dramatically changes the picture, with the rate of serious illness in vaccinated people being 3 - 5 times lower in both the under-60 and over-60 groups.

At face value it does seem strange that the rate of serious illness is much lower in both age groups but higher for the composite all-age population.

The reason of course is that bulk of seriously ill patients are over 60. But over-60's account for only ~2.7% of unvaccinated people. Dividing the number of seriously ill un-vaccinated by the total un-vaccinated population rather just those over 60 therefore results in a dramatically lower rate of serious illness; ie. down from 44.9 to 2.1 per 100k un-vaccinated people. But it is a distortion of the risk to individuals.

Using finer grained age bands would possibly change the pattern even further but would likely start encountering problems due to the comparatively small current numbers of seriously ill patients in Israel.

Fred99

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#2754342 3-Aug-2021 11:47

KrazyKid:

Personally I find this a disappointing decision. Fourpeak only stated their opinion, didn't try to spread any false statements and only crime seems to be willing to not explain their opinion further when pressed.

That's not correct. He did spread false information and that creates FUD. I can't read his mind as to whether that was deliberate of not, but it's exactly what anti-vaxxers are doing across social media platforms and elsewhere.

tdgeek

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#2754344 3-Aug-2021 11:48

KrazyKid:

Personally I find this a disappointing decision. Fourpeak only stated their opinion, didn't try to spread any false statements and only crime seems to be willing to not explain their opinion further when pressed.

Banning people from a discussion forum for basically stating personal view is not going to convince anyone to change there mind.

(I also strong disagree with those who aggressively insulted Fourpeak for the same reason - insults are not going to change anyone's opinion.)

I have had my second covid shot as I an immune compromised and personally wish we would magically get to 100% of population vaccinated (Sadly don't see how that will happen) so can't be called an anti-vaxx person my any measure.

I didnt see an aggressive insult, or an insult. He is an anti vaxxer. Justifying he isnt as he gets a flu jab, is doing a major disservice to all those that have suffered and died, and will continue to do so. Some things he or she said were akin to opting out of obeying red traffic light signals. Covid being bad etc etc etc isn't a thing to be debated, if some choose to blow it off, thats rather extreme and foolhardy in my opinion. Some topics have gone well past "opinion" and in my view this is one of them

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tdgeek

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#2754348 3-Aug-2021 11:53

DS248:

The reason of course is that bulk of seriously ill patients are over 60. But over-60's account for only ~2.7% of unvaccinated people.

Nice work. Classic stats when the 2.7% value is the BIG graph.

I recall a politician years and years ago showing a graph, but it didn't start at zero and the A and B axis were skewed to suit.

dafman

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#2754351 3-Aug-2021 11:58

KrazyKid:

Personally I find this a disappointing decision. Fourpeak only stated their opinion, didn't try to spread any false statements and only crime seems to be willing to not explain their opinion further when pressed.

Banning people from a discussion forum for basically stating personal view is not going to convince anyone to change there mind.

(I also strong disagree with those who aggressively insulted Fourpeak for the same reason - insults are not going to change anyone's opinion.)

I have had my second covid shot as I an immune compromised and personally wish we would magically get to 100% of population vaccinated (Sadly don't see how that will happen) so can't be called an anti-vaxx person my any measure.

+1. Fully endorse above comments

GV27

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#2754356 3-Aug-2021 12:01

tdgeek:

Covid being bad etc etc etc isn't a thing to be debated, if some choose to blow it off, thats rather extreme and foolhardy in my opinion. Some topics have gone well past "opinion" and in my view this is one of them

It was definitely getting into the 'entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts' territory. This thread has been quite constructive and useful for me keeping up with the pandemic from various sourcess and that's a sideshow the thread doesn't need.

wellygary

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#2754359 3-Aug-2021 12:03

tdgeek:

I recall a politician years and years ago showing a graph, but it didn't start at zero and the A and B axis were skewed to suit.

They are still at it,

Courtesy of our current Minister of Health last week....

https://twitter.com/AndrewLittleMP/status/1420891409117192193

Note, salary scale on the y axis starts at 30K.... makes the offered increases in nurses salaries seem bigger

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