2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2755290 4-Aug-2021 21:14

Boltzone, I know its in the nature of Geek to try to optimise everything. Consider...
You never know when you might need the protection in the meantime.

Its like saving your lifejacket for the day you need it, taking it on each boating trip just wears it out, sun and salt damage etc.
Then you need it, and you were not expecting to, pity you did not take it that day.
Oh if you had had your lifejacket maybe you could have rescued your friend as well.

By the time we open there will be much better data on boosters, or a new V2.0 vaccine.

CDC report.

We don't have a cheap and easy test for viable virus, so it could just be viral fragments the immune system has destroyed the viable virus.
We also don't know if this a very short peak that provides less chance for transmission as immune system is already primed for vaccinated ?
( See T-Cells below, antibodies are not the full picture though easily tested relatively cheaply )

If its this CDC report, when a scientist says 'might' , and 'studies are needed to confirm findings' , um well.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM62612&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2070%2C%20July%2030%2C%202021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM62612

""
Finally, Ct values obtained with SARS-CoV-2 qualitative RT-PCR diagnostic tests might provide a crude correlation to the amount of virus present in a sample and can also be affected by factors other than viral load.††† Although the assay used in this investigation was not validated to provide quantitative results, there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar. However, microbiological studies are required to confirm these findings.
""

Transmission after vaccination is still 'possible', but to what extent well data is a bit lacking to be precise.
Remember the Wellington case visiting multiple enclosed tourist spaces, only one shot of vaccine, no other Delta infections except his wife.
Anyway no-one else got infected and he was a scanning hero ! Yep that was Delta.

We have good reports of long lived T-Cell , and Memory B cell response developed by the vaccines.

So even as antibodies fade, the immune system is not a one trick pony and T-Cells work differently and more difficult to escape.

https://www.virology.ws/2021/03/25/t-cells-will-save-us-from-covid-19/

""
T cells to the rescue: the T cell epitopes on the surface of the infected cells are readily recognized because they are mainly the same in the variants as in the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2. You may have a mild infection but you will not be hospitalized or die. Isn’t that the goal of vaccination?
""

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#2755291 4-Aug-2021 21:18

Fred99:

Rikkitic:

Some with vaccine hesitation may be reading this thread. You are probably more likely to persuade them if you don't keep calling them killers.

But that's actually what they are. Along with "freedumb warriors".

You want to have a rational discussion with people full of dumb ideologies garnered from social media and extremists pose a very real deadly threat to you and your loved ones - when they won't believe and/or will dispute every fact you throw at them?

I don't.

With a conciliatory approach there is a chance to change that persons opinion as has been proven by some posters on here. It's not just dumb ideologies. There are plenty of facts with a twist as Batman mentioned earlier.

Using your approach they will still pose a threat to you and your loved ones. That to me isn't a good outcome.

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Fred99

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#2755292 4-Aug-2021 21:20

Rikkitic:

I saw an interview with a Covid doctor on CNN the other night in which she made the point that she had actually successfully persuaded people by listening to their arguments and patiently answering questions and correcting wrong information. Your approach does not have even that possibility.

That's all very nice, but I'm not a doctor. Closest is that I did give a a horse a 50ml shot of procaine penicillin intramuscularly into its neck once. The stupid thing broke three needles and tried to kill me several times, despite me speaking very kindly (at least before I got to the last needle) and feeding it apples. We ended up hating each other, but I'm sure I did the right thing.

Despite my obnoxious nature, I have persuaded several "hesitants" to get their shots. But I can't for the life of me imagine why anybody would dream of coming into this thread wanting advice or discussion on their "hesitancy", unless of course - that's actually not why they're here.

Rikkitic

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#2755294 4-Aug-2021 21:31

Fred99:

Despite my obnoxious nature, I have persuaded several "hesitants" to get their shots. But I can't for the life of me imagine why anybody would dream of coming into this thread wanting advice or discussion on their "hesitancy", unless of course - that's actually not why they're here.

It is hard to speak for horses but we all know that many more people read Geekzone than participate in it. I can easily imagine someone Google-stumbling across this thread, getting caught by a post, and reading further out of curiosity. Why not make it as easy for them as you can? Sometimes people are persuaded not by a single encounter, but by a series. Let's do everything we can to guide them along.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Boltigzone

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#2755296 4-Aug-2021 21:36

Batman:

slight misread :)

"Experts say that vaccination makes it less likely that you'll catch Covid-19 in the first place -- but for those who do, this data suggests they could have a similar tendency to spread it as unvaccinated folks."

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/30/health/breakthrough-infection-masks-cdc-provincetown-study/index.html

still there are high numbers of vaccinated getting infected and spreading. This is why they are now saying that even if you are vaccinated you should still wear a mask.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/covid-cdc-delta-masks.html

There are roughly 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans, according to data collected by the C.D.C. as of July 24 that was cited in the internal presentation.

Detailed analysis of the spread of cases showed that people infected with Delta carry enormous amounts of virus in their nose and throat, regardless of vaccination status, according to the C.D.C. document.

This brings me back to my first post, the vaccine needs to updated for the delta variant, 65 - 85 percent or what ever it is, is not sufficient to get the pandemic under control.

Fred99

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#2755297 4-Aug-2021 21:48

Boltigzone:

There are roughly 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans, according to data collected by the C.D.C. as of July 24 that was cited in the internal presentation.

There's >350,000 symptomatic infections / week in unvaccinated Americans, and they're far more likely to be hospitalised or die.

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Fred99

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#2755298 4-Aug-2021 21:50

Boltigzone:

Detailed analysis of the spread of cases showed that people infected with Delta carry enormous amounts of virus in their nose and throat, regardless of vaccination status, according to the C.D.C. document.

That was based on one unusual outbreak cluster, and I posted above why that snippet may not be as meaningful as antivaxxers seem to wish for.

Boltigzone

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#2755299 4-Aug-2021 21:56

Fred99:

Boltigzone:

Detailed analysis of the spread of cases showed that people infected with Delta carry enormous amounts of virus in their nose and throat, regardless of vaccination status, according to the C.D.C. document.

That was based on one unusual outbreak cluster, and I posted above why that snippet may not be as meaningful as antivaxxers seem to wish for.

but why would that unusual outbreak cluster be any different from other clusters around the world, I mean its the same delta strain.

Fred99

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#2755300 4-Aug-2021 22:01

Boltigzone:

This brings me back to my first post, the vaccine needs to updated for the delta variant, 65 - 85 percent or what ever it is, is not sufficient to get the pandemic under control.

The "update" isn't a sure thing, Pfizer were supposed to be starting trials about now, if that's successful, then it will probably be well into next year before it's available, and I suspect it'll probably be a "booster". (they're also trialling a booster of the existing vaccine - which may be apporved more quickly)

The reduced efficacy of current vaccines against Delta is reason why more people need to be vaccinated ASAP with existing vaccines - not wait for something that might never come.

Note that what you stated as 65-85 percent, doesn't really matter if that's exact. One year ago expectations for a vaccine with efficacy over 60% were considered wishful thinking. IOW - even with Delta, what we've got is much better than what what was expected.

If you want further evidence of vaccine efficacy, look at what's been achieved in the UK.

Fred99

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#2755312 4-Aug-2021 22:25

Boltigzone:

but why would that unusual outbreak cluster be any different from other clusters around the world, I mean its the same delta strain.

Because epidemiology / transmission of disease isn't as straight forward as a raw "R0" estimate of how many people one person would infect on average in a population. Human behaviour which aids transmission - or suppresses it makes a huge difference.

So if we assume that delta has an R0 of 8 in a community with no immunity, then in the Sydney outbreak (with close to no immunity), and transmission happening three days after infection, you'd be seeing massive exponential growth in cases. But it's not happening because people's behaviour changed. Inadequately to contain it so far, but harder lockdowns worked in Melbourne.

In the case of the outbreak in Provincetown, 60,000 people gathered to party together, the event was cancelled last year, so was a huge celebration. Mainly gay men who (at least as far as the locals where vaccination rate was known) had a very high vaccination rate (IIRC 95%). They did nothing wrong, CDC perhaps goofed by easing containment measures too early (and right when Delta was ramping up).

For comparison, in Sydney, IIRC 38/40 people caught C-19 because one infected person went to a birthday party, and the result was that people died.

About 1,000 cases out of 60,000 partying hard together for a week or two is completely unsurprising, but great fodder for antivaxxers.

Dratsab

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#2755313 4-Aug-2021 22:27

Fred99:

neb: If you made this stuff up for a TV soap opera, people would dismiss it as too ludicrous.

If social media had been a thing 60 years go, soap operas would need to feature lots of crippled boomers whose parents refused to let them be vaccinated against polio.

Ha ha ha... that reminds me of this tshirt Glenn Fricker wore on his channel for a while.

Glenn Fricker on Twitter: "On sale till Sunday! Use the code FANFAVE and take 10% off! https://t.co/OgexawmXcH… "

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Dratsab

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#2755316 4-Aug-2021 22:32

NSW premiere got a bit snippy when asked why Bunnings was still open. Note, the reporter got it wrong, Bunnings stores in QLD are still open...

Fred99

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#2755318 4-Aug-2021 22:48

Ok I've tried (posts above). Haven't called anybody an idiot, tried to give concise explanations to questions, I could pick holes in those answers myself - but "best attempt and as concise as I'm able to give off the top of my head" while "100% accurate" is a very big ask. I left school when I was 12, don't expect too much.

Place your bets on probability that OP replies with something along the lines of "Oh - that's interesting".

I don't fancy my chances for even that, when the only "good response" is "I changed my mind - I'll get my shots ASAP". There are no "two sides" to these discussions, no "compromise" is going to work.

High probability that OP will go back to wherever they got the wrong information that prompted them to post here in the first place, to cherry-pick information from some "stuff on the internet - so it must be true" to refute something cherry picked from I said. At which point - I give up.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist. Disappointed by the fact that great expectations for the benefit to humanity by nearly unlimited access to information could have turned into such a crapfest.

tdgeek

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#2755332 5-Aug-2021 05:51

Boltigzone:

There are roughly 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans, according to data collected by the C.D.C. as of July 24 that was cited in the internal presentation.

Detailed analysis of the spread of cases showed that people infected with Delta carry enormous amounts of virus in their nose and throat, regardless of vaccination status, according to the C.D.C. document.

This brings me back to my first post, the vaccine needs to updated for the delta variant, 65 - 85 percent or what ever it is, is not sufficient to get the pandemic under control.

Thats 2/100 of one percent per week. As everyone knows, no vaccine is 100% effective. Is 65 to 85% better than 0 to 0%?

What is enormous? 10 times Alpha viral load? That would be enormous. I figure its more the Alpha but not 10X the load

The current vaccine does need to be updated but it gives you, 65-85% protection. If you were one of the 2/100 of one percent of Americans getting infected weekly after vaccination, your daily outcome will be better, as will I assume your long term outcome.

Batman

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#2755333 5-Aug-2021 06:00

meanwhile in the last month 9 deaths 4434 hospitalizations from RSV !

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/rsv-six-dead-in-auckland-as-covid-19-takes-its-toll-on-our-national-immunity/B56A6X5LCCRA6ONKON5RVKUJ74/

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