COVID-19: Data, analysis, research links & related discussion

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#2479470 8-May-2020 19:04

wellygary:
Its quickly getting to the point where those health researchers who signed NZ up to partake in a multi-country drug trial on potential COVID treatment might have to go back and say we can't help anymore because we are running out of cases, let alone enough people in Hospital.

The US, Russia, and Brazil will be providing more patients than they know what to do with for the foreseeable future. In particular Russia went from way-down-the-list to #5 in under two weeks (10-15,000 new cases every day, they've quickly ramped up to lots of testing), and Brazil is at #8 despite doing next to no testing.

nzkc

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#2479517 8-May-2020 22:56

wellygary:

Its quickly getting to the point where those health researchers who signed NZ up to partake in a multi-country drug trial on potential COVID treatment might have to go back and say we can't help anymore because we are running out of cases, let alone enough people in Hospital.

I know what you're getting at....and its great isn't it :)

However; trials include (and often start with) testing against completely healthy people. We need to understand all the affects of a drug and know if the side affects are from the drug alone or the drug + what it is trying to treat. So we're still potentially a valuable resource for testing though probably not as valuable as a few weeks ago.

PolicyGuy

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#2479767 9-May-2020 14:08

Here's the graph for Saturday 9th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

frankv

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#2479791 9-May-2020 15:09

wellygary

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#2479833 9-May-2020 17:06

Actives now down to 103 , a net reduction of 19 cases today , anyone want to predict where we might get to by Wednesday ( potentially last day in lvl 3) ,I’m picking sub 50 cases , and they will only be in Auckland, Christchurch and Waikato ... might be even better , here’s hoping

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#2480621 10-May-2020 16:04

Here's the graph for Sunday 10th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

Nett reduction of only one case today (2 new, 3 recovered)

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#2481318 11-May-2020 15:20

Here's the graph for Monday 11th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

howsitgoing

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#2481591 11-May-2020 23:41

How would a level 3 induced resurgence show up in the data? Maybe a spike after incubation+testing time from 27th April?

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#2481761 12-May-2020 10:49

frankv

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#2481762 12-May-2020 10:51

howsitgoing:

How would a level 3 induced resurgence show up in the data? Maybe a spike after incubation+testing time from 27th April?

I think we're already seeing a result of the relaxation (and flouting) of the rules... recent new cases are not zero, although not increasing. So there's been an increase from near-zero to a couple of cases per day.

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#2481827 12-May-2020 11:46

frankv:

I think we're already seeing a result of the relaxation (and flouting) of the rules... recent new cases are not zero, although not increasing. So there's been an increase from near-zero to a couple of cases per day.

I think the cases this week have all been related to existing clusters or with health professionals working with existing cases. I recall one even being from international travel too. I don't think we're seeing any community transmission that is a concern with relaxing of the levels.

I think we're going to have a long tail no matter what. Little (emphasis on little) bumps aren't much to worry about as long as we're still trending down.

I'm no epidemiologist so read into this as little as you like!

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#2482088 12-May-2020 17:24

PolicyGuy

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#2482090 12-May-2020 17:25

Here's the graph for Tuesday 12th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

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#2482772 13-May-2020 13:53

An oddity I noticed today: on the MoH website the Summary shows 4 recovered cases, 0 new cases, 0 deaths. However, in the "Total cases by DHB" table, the number of active cases is exactly the same as yesterday (78). Likewise, the total number recovered is unchanged on 1398. Surely active should have dropped by 4 and recovered increased by 4? Both tables are timestamped "as at 9.00 am, 13 May 2020"

Also,

Last updated 5.00 pm, 13 May 2020.

🙄

cshwone

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#2482776 13-May-2020 13:58

frankv:

An oddity I noticed today: on the MoH website the Summary shows 4 recovered cases, 0 new cases, 0 deaths. However, in the "Total cases by DHB" table, the number of active cases is exactly the same as yesterday (78). Likewise, the total number recovered is unchanged on 1398. Surely active should have dropped by 4 and recovered increased by 4? Both tables are timestamped "as at 9.00 am, 13 May 2020"

Also,

Last updated 5.00 pm, 13 May 2020.

🙄

Not any more :) 74 and 1402

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