Just visited the vaccination website and it's now open for 50+ - just registered for next week in Wellington.

Batman:

 

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

 

 https://www.scribd.com/document/519645361/Embargoed-Skegg-Advice

Given that this thread is already >1500 pages, there's only 18 pages to read.

freitasm:

 

Just visited the vaccination website and it's now open for 50+ - just registered for next week in Wellington.

 

Fred99:

Batman:

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

 https://www.scribd.com/document/519645361/Embargoed-Skegg-Advice

Given that this thread is already >1500 pages, there's only 18 pages to read.

 

 

 

Fred99:

Batman:

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

 https://www.scribd.com/document/519645361/Embargoed-Skegg-Advice

Given that this thread is already >1500 pages, there's only 18 pages to read.

 

 

 

Scott3:

Batman:

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

Nah. They are just saying that they want as many people as possible vaccinated.

 

Before the delta strain, when it was looking viable to have herd immunity, getting to the percentage to give herd immunity was critical. But with delta we have no chance with the current vaccine...

Batman:

 

was there a target we needed to reach before we'd open up next year or is there no target set, just talking of opening up only

 

You cant make a target for an evolving situation

Batman:

that makes the most Interesting announcement. From what I read we are both opening up and maintaining elimination strategy. I thought it was one or the other. Watch this space I guess

Its not really opening up. It means that you can travel on a holiday to a very restricted set of locations. leave the kids at home. Businesses can do the same also, thats helpful. Vaccinations are the new tool to allow a bit more freedom, but just a bit

Batman:that makes the most Interesting announcement. From what I read we are both opening up and maintaining elimination strategy. I thought it was one or the other. Watch this space I guess

It's more one after the other I think. They are going to maintain the elimination strategy this year and when gradually opening up next year may have to re-visit 'elimination'.

This year they are trialling limited travel (hundreds not thousands) for Business purposes using a range of isolation techniques on their return.

I can't see that vaccinated travel/MIQ-free return  travel trial working very well

The way Delta is spreading, there won't be many place to go anyway.

Aircraft still have to be a huge risk for transmission between passengers.  Wearing masks isn't some miracle.

I've lost faith in many people's wish to do the right thing wrt isolation, compliance with reasonable rules, general comprehension of what's going on.

Reading some of the causes of C-19 spreading from Sydney, some of what people were doing aren't because of ignorance or desperate situations, they're breaking rules for trivial and selfish reasons, they either don't care or are deliberately spreading the disease.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/hunter-covid-source/100373210

Fred99:

 

I can't see that vaccinated travel/MIQ-free return  travel trial working very well

 

The way Delta is spreading, there won't be many place to go anyway.

 

Aircraft still have to be a huge risk for transmission between passengers.  Wearing masks isn't some miracle.

 

I've lost faith in many people's wish to do the right thing wrt isolation, compliance with reasonable rules, general comprehension of what's going on.

 

Reading some of the causes of C-19 spreading from Sydney, some of what people were doing aren't because of ignorance or desperate situations, they're breaking rules for trivial and selfish reasons, they either don't care or are deliberately spreading the disease.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/hunter-covid-source/100373210

 

 

 

I see that trial as like the trial of a vaccine, clinically controlled conditions and healthy people. The real world is different. These trialists will be limited and compliant and wont be roaming free after the isolation period, they will be studied and tested. Prof Skegg has mentioned that compliance or lack thereof and Delta don't mix and thats the issue with the masses.

I'm taking a positive view, its a test. I feel that they will realise that there are loose ends as regards transmission. Maybe people can inhale into mouth and nose to kill any infection in the airways? Is that the anti-virals that's been mentioned?

End of the day, if everyone and that's including young kids are vaccinated, then vaccine based travel will probably go ahead with many countries sometime next year

tdgeek:

 

End of the day, if everyone and that's including young kids are vaccinated, then vaccine based travel will probably go ahead with many countries sometime next year

 

I'm less optimistic.  If delta is 2x as transmissible as alpha, and the vaccines seem to reduce risk of infection by about half, then delta is going to spread at about the same rate amongst the vaccinated as alpha did before vaccines.

We could maybe accept that (and might have no choice), but there's a high risk that the virus will mutate to become more resistant to the vaccines and past infection and treatments faster than our our ability to counter that - because it's a numbers game, the mutations are random, but millions of people infected at any point in time, well...  We shouldn't have let that happen.

Edit: aaargh - that's depressing.  There's always the possibility that the next mutation might make the virus more transmissible and better at escaping immunity, but that mutation might also make it less virulent - there's no advantage to the virus in harming people, so causing less harm isn't a disadvantage.  That's what generally happens with new contagious diseases - but it takes a long time.  Maybe that's what happened with "Spanish Flu", or part of the story anyway.  Millions were infected, then it became "seasonal flu".

tdgeek:

 

It worked. Our economy is IIRC near pre covid. Unemployment at a low. So isolated and cut off is a bit of a misnomer. Residents can return home, we have Delta here. Are we cut off? Well I guess Americans can travel the globe can they? We can't. Does that matter at the moment??

 

Given that I can't see my parents and my children can't see their grandparents at the moment then yes, we are cut off and it does matter.

I'm totally supportive of the border lock down approach taken to date but it can't go on forever.

And while its all well and good allowing Kiwis bugger off abroad for holidays in low risk countries what's the plan for the large proportion of people in this country with close family in "high risk" countries like the UK, US and India etc.?

I won't be able to take my children to the UK anytime soon so when will my fully vaccinated mother be allowed to come here and see us? She'll be bringing her credit card!

Hopefully at some point there'll be some sort of family re-unification category. That combined with vaccination certificates, pre-departure and arrival testing plus maybe five days is MIQ should cover it.

And how do we plan to get doctors, nurses, builders, engineers 😉 and other highly skilled people into the country to sort out some of these bottlenecks in the economy? 

evilengineer:

 

tdgeek:

 

It worked. Our economy is IIRC near pre covid. Unemployment at a low. So isolated and cut off is a bit of a misnomer. Residents can return home, we have Delta here. Are we cut off? Well I guess Americans can travel the globe can they? We can't. Does that matter at the moment??

 

 

Given that I can't see my parents and my children can't see their grandparents at the moment then yes, we are cut off and it does matter.

 

I'm totally supportive of the border lock down approach taken to date but it can't go on forever.

 

And while its all well and good allowing Kiwis bugger off abroad for holidays in low risk countries what's the plan for the large proportion of people in this country with close family in "high risk" countries like the UK, US and India etc.?

 

I won't be able to take my children to the UK anytime soon so when will my fully vaccinated mother be allowed to come here and see us? She'll be bringing her credit card!

 

Hopefully at some point there'll be some sort of family re-unification category. That combined with vaccination certificates, pre-departure and arrival testing plus maybe five days is MIQ should cover it.

 

And how do we plan to get doctors, nurses, builders, engineers 😉 and other highly skilled people into the country to sort out some of these bottlenecks in the economy? 

 

I should have expanded at the moment to mean while its safe here and the vaccine rollout is not complete. Once the latter is complete, and also complete elsewhere, I'm sure there will be more options. The workers you mentioined can come to MIQ, I think that's happening now or will be