2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2438892 15-Mar-2020 23:02

Oblivian:

Punters and tour agents won't be pleased alike

13 night-er that also had Napier, Tauranga and Auckland on the cards.

https://www.icruise.com/itineraries/13-night-new-zealand-cruise_golden-princess_3-10-2020.html

If the rumors are correct, and the test results are negitive, I think the passengers will be quite happy to step off the ship at the final destination on or ahead of schedule.

Being trapped on a sick ship must be a scary though.

Fred99

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#2438897 15-Mar-2020 23:35

Scott3:

If the rumors are correct, and the test results are negitive, I think the passengers will be quite happy to step off the ship at the final destination on or ahead of schedule.

Being trapped on a sick ship must be a scary though.

According to the cruise ship company, the test came back negative.

According to our media reports - the test result wasn't due until tomorrow.

I do hope our MOH refers the actual test result to the Aus authorities.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2438898 15-Mar-2020 23:39

Fred99:

According to the cruise ship company, the test came back negative.

According to our media reports - the test result wasn't due until tomorrow.

I do hope our MOH refers the actual test result to the Aus authorities.

Yeah, the MOH said the result wouldn't be out until tommorrow. Seems a bit odd, considering the media hasn't updated anything on this. I wonder if Australia will let them back in based on the policies. Guessing they will need 2 weeks self isolation as a minimum.

Fred99

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#2438899 15-Mar-2020 23:51

freitasm: What I think is he should have been told not to leave the house until results were in.

So, as time's gone on - how it seems to be:

When he arrived in Aus from France - he did have symptoms - that's why he was tested - so he should have understood exactly what was going on, even if he is a sandwich short of a lunchbox.

That he didn't have symptoms when he flew to NZ is irrelevant. He may have chosen to not give a sh*t about others he could kill - because it wasn't convenient. And he teaches children - who (and whose parents) trust him.

Probably did NZ a favour in a way - wake up to the concept that the nicest seeming people may not be what they seem at all - untrustworthy when you most need to trust them.

Scott3

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#2438900 16-Mar-2020 00:02

Fred99:

So, as time's gone on - how it seems to be:

When he arrived in Aus from France - he did have symptoms - that's why he was tested - so he should have understood exactly what was going on, even if he is a sandwich short of a lunchbox.

That he didn't have symptoms when he flew to NZ is irrelevant. He may have chosen to not give a sh*t about others he could kill - because it wasn't convenient. And he teaches children - who (and whose parents) trust him.

Probably did NZ a favour in a way - wake up to the concept that the nicest seeming people may not be what they seem at all - untrustworthy when you most need to trust them.

Hopefully this.

It just happened that he went to Aust, before NZ. And their screening picked up the symptoms. Even though he traveled onward, the test results coming in fast meant he was unable to be contract traced.

If he had of traveled directly to NZ, we have had no symptom screening at our airports (according to recent arrivals), and would have gone straight into the community. Potentially he could have got sick and well again (and spread to many people) without ever seeking medical advice.

The worrying thing is that far more people come back to France via the big transit airports in asia than go through Australia. It is likely we have missed many people already.

Also a good reminder that a chunk of the population will do things that our ministry of health will be disappointing by.

Tinkerisk

4224 posts

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#2438902 16-Mar-2020 00:13

The problem of the tests is:

It needs several days incubation time before the virus density is high enough to be detected. If a test has been done too early the result doesn't show up the negative infection reliably. (= false negative)

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DS248

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#2438905 16-Mar-2020 01:08

tdgeek: ... As I see it, the Kiwis came back early. if there was no announcement, they come back next week or the week after, also with no self isolation requirement. Aussies coming here for a family event, the same. IMO it doesn't really matter. They circumvented a 14 day that they would not be doing anyway. ...

Are you saying it does not matter because if the requirement hadn't been introduced, they would not have had to do the isolation? Well of course. That applied for multiple countries. And if we hadn't restricted entry from China, people from Wuhan could still be coming here now and "next week or the week after" with no self isolation requirement.

The purpose of this latest requirement is to cut down the rate of COVID-19 spreading here. And an extra 2-3000 from an area with significant community transmission not required to at least self-isolate increases the risk from community transmission here. The requirement should have been immediate. Australia has 7 times the rate of infections here, with the numbers there doubling in the last 3 days.

You still seem convinced we are doing better than many because 2.5 weeks in we only have 8 confirmed cases. As I previously pointed out, many countries in Europe had 8 or fewer cases even 3 - 3.5 weeks after their first case. And most of those countries have much larger populations. Australia too had 'tiny' numbers for the first 4 - 5 weeks (fewer per million population than we now have). But that was two weeks ago - now its on the exponential curve up.

We are still in the initial phase where it is almost inevitably spreading undetected. Quite likely we are following the same trajectory. The truth is about to hit us in the next week or two. Importing it without the self isolation requirement is going to make it worse.

New evidence seems to indicate pre-symptomatic spread may be more significant that previous thought https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

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mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2438906 16-Mar-2020 01:16

DS248:

Are you saying it does not matter because if the requirement hadn't been introduced, they would not have had to do the isolation? Well of course. That applied for multiple countries. And it we hadn't restricted entry from China, people from Wuhan could still be coming here now and "next week or the week after" with no self isolation requirement.

The purpose of this latest requirement is to cut down the rate of COVID-19 spreading here. And an extra 2-3000 from an area with significant community transmission not required to at least self-isolate increases the risk from community transmission here. The requirement should have been immediate. Australia has 7 times the rate of infections here, with the numbers there doubling in the last 3 days.

You still seem convinced we are doing better than many because 2.5 weeks in we only have 8 confirmed cases. As I previously pointed out, many countries in Europe had 8 or fewer cases even 3 - 3.5 weeks after their first case. And most of those countries have much larger populations. Australia too had 'tiny' numbers for the first 4 - 5 weeks (fewer per million population than we now have). But that was two weeks ago - now its on the exponential curve up.

We are still in the initial phase where it is almost inevitably spreading undetected. Quite likely we are following the same trajectory. The truth is about to hit us in the next week or two. Importing it without the self isolation requirement is going to make it worse.

New evidence seems to indicate pre-symptomatic spread may be more significant that previous thought https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

Ironically, NZ politicians who have just come back from Oz, are voluntarily self isolating themselves. They are not doing that for fun, there is a risk, and wouldn't employers would also likely being taking risk under Worksafe requirements, allowing these people to go back to work with other workers? . Surely we should be asking all these other travelers coming in to at least do the same thing. I saw some said they paid a lot extra to make sure they got in in time to avoid needing to self isolate, which annoyed me. When you travel there is always the risk that you may get ill, and IMO it is the kiwi thing to do, to self isolate to protect other kiwis. To avoid the need to self isolate due to a technicality IMO isn't good. The virus has sneaked in already from people coming in from countries that have community spread, but we didn't require them to self isolate, as per the new cases today.

DS248

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#2438908 16-Mar-2020 01:24

Updating that chart someone posted a few days ago

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2438909 16-Mar-2020 01:48

I have found this is the best site with all the graphs you need.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Can see Europe is really bad. South Korea is flattening the curve. China has flattened it. So those two are doing well. At least we know that it can be controlled.

Tinkerisk

4224 posts

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#2438910 16-Mar-2020 02:32

Spain is on the alert, with over 6,000 coronavirus infections and 190 deaths to date. And yet people all over the country come together to honor the medical staff with a loud ovation.

Moving action in Spain in times of coronavirus: Thousands of citizens went to the windows or the balconies late Saturday evening to thank doctors, paramedics, nurses and other helpers with a nightly ovation. In Madrid, the minutes of enthusiastic applause and calls were heard around 10 p.m. throughout the city. Car and bus drivers hold Hup concerts. According to media reports, the call for the campaign, which was disseminated via WhatsApp and online, was also followed in many other parts of the country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MIjynl6nYc

And here the Essen University Hospital cardiologists: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ27R6JHII0 :-)

Jase2985

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#2438913 16-Mar-2020 05:20

mattwnz:

Fred99:

According to the cruise ship company, the test came back negative.

According to our media reports - the test result wasn't due until tomorrow.

I do hope our MOH refers the actual test result to the Aus authorities.

Yeah, the MOH said the result wouldn't be out until tommorrow. Seems a bit odd, considering the media hasn't updated anything on this. I wonder if Australia will let them back in based on the policies. Guessing they will need 2 weeks self isolation as a minimum.

why would they not? the origin of the cruise was there. the destination of the cruise was there. you cant just make it someone elses problem.

its a bit different if it didnt originate there or the destination isnt there.

tdgeek

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#2438933 16-Mar-2020 06:39

DS248:

Are you saying it does not matter because if the requirement hadn't been introduced, they would not have had to do the isolation? Well of course. That applied for multiple countries. And if we hadn't restricted entry from China, people from Wuhan could still be coming here now and "next week or the week after" with no self isolation requirement.

The purpose of this latest requirement is to cut down the rate of COVID-19 spreading here. And an extra 2-3000 from an area with significant community transmission not required to at least self-isolate increases the risk from community transmission here. The requirement should have been immediate. Australia has 7 times the rate of infections here, with the numbers there doubling in the last 3 days.

You still seem convinced we are doing better than many because 2.5 weeks in we only have 8 confirmed cases. As I previously pointed out, many countries in Europe had 8 or fewer cases even 3 - 3.5 weeks after their first case. And most of those countries have much larger populations. Australia too had 'tiny' numbers for the first 4 - 5 weeks (fewer per million population than we now have). But that was two weeks ago - now its on the exponential curve up.

We are still in the initial phase where it is almost inevitably spreading undetected. Quite likely we are following the same trajectory. The truth is about to hit us in the next week or two. Importing it without the self isolation requirement is going to make it worse.

New evidence seems to indicate pre-symptomatic spread may be more significant that previous thought https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

We are not 2.5 weeks in, we are months in. It started late Nov, official 31 Dec, most countries banned China around end January. Thats not 2.5 weeks in.

We have been importing with non elf isolation from infected countries a long while. If we announced this measure 2 weeks ago, there would be travellers nit far form coming here. If it ws in two weeks the same. Why didn't we do this in late Jan?? We happened to do it last weekend, and there was a transitional gap. Yes, would hav been better if it was immediate but the no self isolation rule from Australia has existed from day dot. For some reason this 36 hours was more important than any other 36 hours. It seems we need to complain that this measure didn't happen 2 months ago?

Handle9

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#2438938 16-Mar-2020 06:57

tdgeek:
IIRC your wife is involved at a/the school? In any case take care

Cheers. I don't think we'll be at work in another week. Dubai is such a melting pot that it's inevitable that it'll be rough here. Fortunately summer is on its way so not much is likely to survive outside.

Yeah my wife is a teacher. The school is off for another week then she's meant to teach 9 year olds using Microsoft Teams. I can't see it working too well but it is what it is.

Batman

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#2438939 16-Mar-2020 06:58

advertisement - i mean conspiracy - in 5, 4, 3, 2 ...

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