The graph really shows how effective our lockdown was, including when compared to Australias.

An NEJM article mostly focusing on covid-19 testing in the US 

Failing the Test — The Tragic Data Gap Undermining the U.S. Pandemic Response

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2014836

...

"That the United States is failing such a simple test of its capacity to protect public health is shocking."

...

"With more than 80,000 dead and no end in sight, our national efforts seem feebler and more halting than the 19th-century work of Florence Nightingale in the Crimean War and William Farr in England, where they used systematically collected epidemiologic data and rigorous analysis to save countless lives."

Good to see MOH have at last changed to more widely accepted definitions for Imported, rather than the previous dubious definition of 'Overseas Travel' that included people who arrived in NZ up to 56 days prior to 'date notified of potential case'.  Other definitions now also revised and now more in line with the likes of HK.  Unknown source now 6% of NZ cases.

ie. from https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

• Imported cases: Cases with a reported history of international travel within 14 days of onset.
• Imported related cases: Cases that have a reported link (close contact or epidemiological link) to an imported/overseas acquired case.
• Locally acquired cases, epidemiologically linked: Cases that have a reported link (close contact or other epidemiological link) to a locally acquired case with unknown source.
• Locally acquired cases, unknown source: Cases that have no reported history of international travel within 14 days of onset and no recorded epidemiological link to a source case.
• Source of infection remains under investigation whereby source of infection could not be classified due to incomplete EpiSurv case report forms. These cases are removed from further analyses in the sections below.

Hmm, I see the change has yet to make it into the individual case details spreadsheet!

DS248:

 

Unknown source now 6% of NZ cases.

 

Yeah, although these gems from today's presser  were very heartening 

"April 2 was the last time there was a case they couldn't link back to another.

 There is no community transmission. Bloomfield said we want to see that when we settle into level 2 and 1 that we're not seeing cases that can't be linked back to international travel or existing cases.  

"We haven't found cases that were unexpected." He said they want to keep testing across the country"

No "new" cases today, a net 5 recovered ( excluding the 4 "old" confirmed cases added - which have also recovered)

So now, 40 active,

The most recent,40 cases have occurred over the last 24 days, and the first 7 days of those were responsible for 24 cases,

If we assume FIFO, its conceivable that we will continue to drop 3-5 active cases a day for the next few days, - (yes this is not strictly true with different recovery rates etc, but for back of the envelope work its probably good enough)  

BUT once we hit ~20 cases its going to be a long slow grind of 0,1 or 2 cases recovering a day...

I can now see why people are saying we could need weeks at 0 new cases before a move to level 1 (assuming you want to totally stamp out existing cases- excl new imports)

freitasm:

 

I was pointed to two different analytics dashboards (one created by a data analytics guy, another by the MoH).

 

COVID-19 Power BI dashboard (Jeff's original tweet)

 

If you haven't played with Power BI (the first link), give it a try by clicking different parts to filter/slice data.

 

Just bumping this... Noticed there are now two tabs (or I just noticed them anyway)

Sigh, another "new" case today that isn't

Confirmed +1

Recovered +3

Active -2

Also the "new" case that was advised on the 17th  - a preschooler... 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332501

Has now also recovered (in less than a week) - No 0-9 yr cases showing as active..

So again its unclear how "new" that case was also.

But no matter, its a really good sign that  this is all that os coming up in the testing... 

I think we could get some good recovery numbers this week , we have only had 3 cases announced in the last 13 days, ( and they have all now been declared recovered- so they were never "new" cases) so we are almost half way through the 28 day "no new cases"  criteria that people are throwing around as a Level 1 requirement.

All going well we could should certainly have less than 20 actives at the end of the week, maybe even as low as 10....

Is it this week they will review L2?  I can see tweaking down to L1 in not too much time