Scott3:

 

 

 

I agree with most of the stuff you have been saying, but think the comment regarding the Philippines is wide of the mark. My in laws are based in manila.

 

The major constraint in the Philippines is vaccine availability. For whatever reason, vaccine procurement didn't go to well for the Philippines so they have been very constrained on doses, Especially doses from western maunfacturers.

 

Vaccines doses have been aggressively prioritised towards the National Capital Region (Greater Manila). 92.12% of eligible population in the NCR are now fully vaccinated (Source) Compared to something like 42% nation wide.

 

Of course there are some anti-vax people in the Philippines, but they are few and far between. Most people in the Philippines personally know at least one person that has died from covid-19, and many people that have been sick with the virus. (in my realities case, they know a person that died in the waiting area / Triage room, waiting for admission to an overloaded hospital - and that person was well connected which means a lot in the Philippines). People are desperate to get vaccinated.

 

There is quite a strong pecking order in preference for vaccines. Generally Pfizer & Moderna being most desirable, then Astra Zenica, and with Sinovax & Sputnik at the bottom.

 

Had to talk my mother in law out of waiting for pfizer when Astra Zenica became available to her.

 

 

 

A lot of the concern about the non western vaccines early on was not actually medically based, but steamed from concern if those brands would be accepted for international travel (a lot of Philippine's aspire to work overseas). A fairly genuine concern given Saudi wasn't accepting sinovac for a period.  Somewhat reduced now that sinovac has been approved by the WHO.

 

 

 

Regarding sinovac, antidotes from my extended family do somewhat confirm the data that the vaccine is not as good as the western ones. Brother & Sister in law both had harsh side effects, including vomiting. Two households in my extended family have had breakthrough infections in people vaccinated with sinovac. One of those households the infection cut through the entire households and they got pritty sick too, but only the person who was ineligiable for vaccination due to age ended up in hospital.

 

 

 

For Philippines the biggest advantage to approving Novavax is merely to get their hands on more doses. The fact it is a highly effective western vaccine, and doesn't need ultracold storage is simply iceing on the cake.

 

 

 

 

 

Batman: Highly transmissible and rather harmless is a good thing!

 

Absolutely. If the properties are correct it could be pandemic ending. 

 

 

 

Engineering a such a strain would be the obvious futuristic way to get on top of a pandemic. Take the pathogens genetic code, tweak it to be more transmissible, and less harmful than the original, but still close enough to give some immunity from the original strain. Then all that has to be done is release it. - It will quickly become the dominant strain, and become widespread. Functioning as an airborne vaccine and eliminating the limitations of a injection based vaccine roll out.

 

Of course there is is risk that manufactured pathogen mutates to be both highly transmittable & harmfull, so it is something to approach with serious caution.

 

I have an aversion to viral therapies that encourage scientific hubris, I used to imagine the gain of function scientist coming home and telling their partner "Honey I made a Corona virus more infectious and enhanced its transmissability to humans today....lets celebrate".

Of course I am not saying the lab theories are true, I have no idea, I see half the world believes them without specific evidence beyond gain of function experiments with Corona viruses.

I like to see the gun...not the smoking version.

Not that I am anti science, quite the opposite, I just think our fallibility, the temptation of developing God complexes, leads to making things because we can rather than whether we should. 

We have such a profound examples all around us of why we should not try to hack an ecosystem by introducing another agent...you cannot hack the hard wiring of evolution in a way that is predictive of risk potential....ferrets and stoats anyone?