2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2441692 19-Mar-2020 20:34

I have decided to only read MOH and Cabinet media releases and advisories regarding Covid-19. Social media, news media an forums have too much misinformation, opinion and falsehoods and it just confuses. I will listen to me doctor's regarding my situation.

Handle9

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#2441697 19-Mar-2020 20:35

tdgeek:

400 overall or CT or mainly CT?

400 1.3 to the power of 10 times 29. 10 days after that it's 5500

freitasm

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#2441698 19-Mar-2020 20:35

I think the discussion about CT or non-CT is well past its point. There is no miracle in New Zealand that makes it safer than other places. Go and read the reports I've posted before.

Batman

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#2441700 19-Mar-2020 20:36

tdgeek:

We are different. And thats why. Low population, low density, wrong time of the year to have hoards travelling here.

10 days is the 29th what's your prediction?

depends on the behaviour of those who are supposed to self isolate.

if they ALL isolate, then of course = zero

but if they slip up or intentionally not isolate (like we have seen so far), then who knows ....

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#2441701 19-Mar-2020 20:37

freitasm:

I think the discussion about CT or non-CT is well past its point. There is no miracle in New Zealand that makes it safer than other places. Go and read the reports I've posted before.

it says we're waiting for a vaccine

Ademir

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#2441703 19-Mar-2020 20:40

Is this true ? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

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#2441705 19-Mar-2020 20:41

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#2441707 19-Mar-2020 20:48

Ademir:

Is this true ? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

It's the Daily Mail. You never believe what's in there.

Having said that, I read about that but it's a rumour. Wait for official studies, not info from a tabloid.

tdgeek

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#2441711 19-Mar-2020 20:57

Handle9:

tdgeek:

400 overall or CT or mainly CT?

400 1.3 to the power of 10 times 29. 10 days after that it's 5500

Here is my back of an envelope analysis

We are small sample, both the population and the cases. The cases so far are all imported. No we haven't tested CT cases, now we are.

Prior to last weekends change, our cases were low. Incoming traffic on Saturday night and Sunday was high. 8 new cases. Then 8 more cases. All of these are imported. And the risk based on overseas is higher. Higher incidence overseas and higher imports has equalled higher imported cases. Had we noT had the weekends change, arrivals would be lower, so probably lower cases. Cases are found within 24 hours. Im not concerned with the +8 cases and +8 cases. Risk grows daily, and we imported many many more arrivals in a hurry.

We may have CT now, or not. If we already do, they haven't been to the doctor or Healthline or ED. But I do feel we already have some. It's likely. Now we have blocked the border a lot (not all) we have fewer imports to check. We are testing more, including CT testing. Should we find some we can contact trace. As we have extensively to date. I personally feel the self isolation response here has been poor. 90% compliance is great, that 10% is very poor. If we found 1 or 2 or 3 CT's then the compliance will ramp up. That and the contact tracing we do, makes me feel that we wont blow out

Big envelope!

400 by 29th, 5500 by 9 April, locked in! :-) I feel CT's will be low and sporadic. Well traced, but they wont stop or be fixed, but I feel they will stay low. Kiwi mentality may mean she'll be right, but, we will slam and lock doors when things get real. IMHO, hunch, gut feel, MoH

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#2441715 19-Mar-2020 21:11

Ademir:

Is this true ? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

this is not news. From the start According to the Chinese they have used these to cure some of their patients. The Australians are picking up where the Chinese left off and seeing if it works. Presumably other countries are too. But then if they are, then why numbers keep climbing? Many questions.

timw1lliams

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#2441718 19-Mar-2020 21:22

With this new limit of 100 people for indoor gatherings, how would this work for shopping malls? I know supermarkets are exempt but some supermarkets are located inside malls. How would this work for shops inside malls like noel leeming, etc?

Ademir

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#2441720 19-Mar-2020 21:24

Batman:
Ademir:

Is this true ? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

this is not news. From the start According to the Chinese they used these to cure their patients. The Australians are picking up where the Chinese left off and seeing if it works. Presumably other countries are too. But then if they are, then why numbers keep climbing? Many questions.

so this is another fake news ...🤬

Geektastic

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#2441721 19-Mar-2020 21:32

Handle9:

tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

Every country that has COVID19 has community transmission. New Zealand is no different, it just hasn't been detected yet. The numbers are growing on the exponential curve, similarly to other comparable countries such as Italy.

Why would we not have it?

If you let one infected person in and do not then place them in strict medical quarantine until tests show they are no longer infected, you will get CT.

dafman

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#2441723 19-Mar-2020 21:48

tdgeek:

10 days is the 29th what's your prediction?

Predicting numbers is pointless; it will be lots more than the 'official' numbers are now, plus there will be clear evidence of CT.

People are still riding Wellington's public transport packed in like sardines. In Cuba Mall two nights ago, I watched masses of students shoulder to shoulder piling out of the Hotel Bristol. There is a global pandemic shutting down the world yet for a large portion of New Zealanders it is business as usual.

Yes CT is occurring and fixation on the low official numbers, with its accompanying business as usual, is our folly that we will look back on with regret.

MileHighKiwi

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#2441724 19-Mar-2020 21:51

The WHO says we have local transmission, and the data is a week old. Local transmission is CT.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

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