2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2865493 11-Feb-2022 14:36

I can almost see what's coming, We'll surge cases but not push hospitalizations or deaths much due to high vax rate, people will know people that had nothing more than a sniffle and we'll have a decade+ of "See told you it was mild!"

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#2865497 11-Feb-2022 14:43

quickymart:

Might be funny if it wasn't (so depressingly) true; about antivaxxers:

Interesting, the people I know either directly or indirectly who haven't been vaccinated don't fit that at all. Apart from 1 who hasn't done it for religious reasons the others are all immigrants to NZ in last 5 to 10 years.

Though looking at the protestors in Wellington you might be right. Looks like a green party gathering

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#2865505 11-Feb-2022 15:02

Beccara:

I can almost see what's coming, We'll surge cases but not push hospitalizations or deaths much due to high vax rate, people will know people that had nothing more than a sniffle and we'll have a decade+ of "See told you it was mild!"

Thats what my mate keeps banging on about. That its milder isnt the issue, its hospital beds for those that need it, and hospital beds for those with serious non Covid issues that should not be delayed. I hope they publish vaxxed and unvaxxed beds and ICU usage

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#2865523 11-Feb-2022 15:15

tdgeek:

Beccara:

I can almost see what's coming, We'll surge cases but not push hospitalizations or deaths much due to high vax rate, people will know people that had nothing more than a sniffle and we'll have a decade+ of "See told you it was mild!"

Thats what my mate keeps banging on about. That its milder isnt the issue, its hospital beds for those that need it, and hospital beds for those with serious non Covid issues that should not be delayed. I hope they publish vaxxed and unvaxxed beds and ICU usage

7 Day rolling average of Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated is shown here. A bit below about 1/2 way down page.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers

Those in Hospital now unvaccinated 68% ( 42% + 26 < 12 ), vs 32% vaccinated.
Though we would expect more vaccinated over time as they are 77% of population, and make up a similar proportaion of cases.

While we are undertesting there may be a bias to people who have no choice but to test, so essential work and workplaces with regualr tests.
Same places would have everyone vaccinated.
Though I am surprised that apparently essential workers have been slow for the third until they have to.

Anyway we have seen in Australia state by state the impact on hospitals by unvaccinated,
then it gets into an aged care facility and vax numbers go up.

USA with up to 50Million unvaccinated at start of omicron has found this and obesity in combination is top reason to end up critical.

Then there is Long Covid which more data is comming in on.

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#2865530 11-Feb-2022 15:30

ezbee:

USA with up to 50Million unvaccinated at start of omicron has found this and obesity in combination is top reason to end up critical.

USA , NZ, Australia and UK the fattest countries in OECD so why USA and UK have high numbers very sick and why NZ and Australia had such strict lockdowns

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#2866643 11-Feb-2022 20:12

Jas777:

ezbee:

USA with up to 50Million unvaccinated at start of omicron has found this and obesity in combination is top reason to end up critical.

USA , NZ, Australia and UK the fattest countries in OECD so why USA and UK have high numbers very sick and why NZ and Australia had such strict lockdowns

Covid is mostly a disease of the unvaccinated and the obese. Instead of listing the age of patients in hospital maybe list the BMI, It can be a wakeup call, or even better list bodyfat %.

After getting vaccinated, the next best thing a person can do for themselves is increase their Vo2 Max, even a little bit helps alot.

https://www.rcpjournals.org/content/clinmedicine/20/3/282

Why is that even missing from the govt health advice along with getting vaccinated? Something like "Get Vaxed and Get Fit" to fight covid19. Instead we offer takeaway discounts to get vaccinated and get massive lines at KFC after lockdowns are lifted🤦‍♂️.

People would of had 2 years to reduce lifesytle comorbidities, if the Govt pushed the message. The science was clear on it.

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#2866665 11-Feb-2022 20:46

Press release:

New Zealand has reached a milestone of 10 million COVID-19 vaccines administered, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today.

“This afternoon at around 2pm, the 10 millionth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was administered. This has been helped by a big surge in boosters and a healthy uptake in tamariki aged 5 to 11 years old having their first paediatric dose," Chris Hipkins said.

"The number on its own tells a great story. But it's what it signifies for the people in our country that’s the most important factor.

“Ten million vaccines, including more than 1.7 million boosters, means our communities already have a good level of protection against Omicron – with more to come. Every single one of our DHBs has now reached 90 per cent of their population having received at least one vaccine dose.

"Kiwis have really pulled together to protect each other with 95 per cent of people aged over 12 now fully vaccinated – one of the highest rates in the world. Sixty-one per cent of people over 18 who are due for a booster have already had one – and this is climbing quickly.

“This is a major logistical achievement and the milestone is testament to the DHBs, hundreds of pharmacies, GPs, hauora, community providers and mobile clinics and other sites that have given the vaccine to everyone from our old to our young.

“The advocates and workers on the ground who work with those in our hardest-to-reach communities also deserve huge recognition.

“But of course, it’s the people of New Zealand who have embraced the science and put their trust in the health system who deserve the biggest accolade. They should take a bow, and then take a breath and continue to encourage others to get vaccinated.

“A strong booster uptake in all our communities is our best defence against the Omicron variant. Being fully vaccinated is great, being boosted is even better.

“Book your vaccine now, whether it’s your first, second or booster. Every dose counts.

“The ‘Big Boost’ campaign continues this weekend, promoting the booster dose to anyone 18 and over who has had their second dose more than 3 months ago.

“Many vaccination centres will be open extended hours over the weekend to encourage people to get their booster,” Chris Hipkins said.

Find a vaccination centre near you by visiting BookMyVaccine.nz or calling the Covid Vaccination Healthline on 0800 28 29 26 for a whānau booking.

The 10 million doses is made up of 4,011,194 first doses, 3,939,188 second doses, 39,717 third primary doses for immunocompromised people, 1,722,179 boosters, and 204,796 paediatrics doses.

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#2866668 11-Feb-2022 20:49

Heart-disease risk soars after COVID — even with a mild case (nature.com)

Even a mild case of COVID-19 can increase a person’s risk of cardiovascular problems for at least a year after diagnosis, a new study1 shows. Researchers found that rates of many conditions, such as heart failure and stroke, were substantially higher in people who had recovered from COVID-19 than in similar people who hadn’t had the disease.

What’s more, the risk was elevated even for those who were under 65 years of age and lacked risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes.

“It doesn’t matter if you are young or old, it doesn’t matter if you smoked, or you didn’t,” says study co-author Ziyad Al-Aly at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, and the chief of research and development for the Veterans Affairs (VA) St. Louis Health Care System. “The risk was there.”

Al-Aly and his colleagues based their research on an extensive health-record database curated by the United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The researchers compared more than 150,000 veterans who survived for at least 30 days after contracting COVID-19 with two groups of uninfected people: a group of more than five million people who used the VA medical system during the pandemic, and a similarly sized group that used the system in 2017, before SARS-CoV-2 was circulating.

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#2866734 11-Feb-2022 23:46

freitasm:

Press release:

... Every single one of our DHBs has now reached 90 per cent of their population having received at least one vaccine dose.

....

Sadly that is not the case (going by MOH issued data). Population needs to be constrained to 12+ for that stat to be true.

As an example, Northland has had from MOH data has had 149,863 first doses delivered. Population (DHB estimate) is 193,170 people. Works out to 77.6%.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

https://www.health.govt.nz/new-zealand-health-system/my-dhb/northland-dhb/population-northland-dhb

GV27

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#2866950 12-Feb-2022 13:52

454 cases today.

We are 15 days away from home iso for returning Kiwis from Australia.

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#2867063 12-Feb-2022 14:42

ezbee: Though I am surprised that apparently essential workers have been slow for the third until they have to.

Does not surprise me. Some essential workers are doing very long hours. If the employer gave them a couple of paid hours off when convenient for a walk in imo that gap would close rapidly.

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#2867071 12-Feb-2022 15:00

Legislation was changed to accommodate

Employees are entitled to reasonable paid time away from work during their normal working hours to receive a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, including a vaccine booster, as long as providing the time off does not unreasonably disrupt: their employer's business; or. the employee's performance of their employment duties.

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#2867078 12-Feb-2022 15:20

Is it as accommodating with the words that follow “as long as….”

Scott3

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#2867079 12-Feb-2022 15:22

GV27:

454 cases today.

We are 15 days away from home iso for returning Kiwis from Australia.

Frankly the timing isn't looking too bad.

Current doubling for community cases time is 5.4 days, so in 15 days time we should be just shy of 2000 community cases a day.

Cases at the border are in decline. A few weeks back, 40+ was typical. Today was only 8... does look to be an outlier, but tow prior days were 32 & 30, supporting a general decreasing trend.

Made up numbers, but Lets say we are getting 25 cases in MIQ in 14 days, and at a guess volume of travel will increase tenfold with self isolation from Aussie, that's 250 cases a day. Lets say self isolation is 50% effective at keeping these cases out of the community, that means 125 more daily cases driven by the aussie Self isolation opening.

I think 125 is small fry, compared to the 2000 local cases I projected. Personally I think even 250 would be small fry, and we could consider ditching the self isolation requirement all together.

Should also note in a couple of weeks we will badly need MIQ capacity so support those who can't isolate themselves when sick (overcrowd housing etc), so taking pressure of that system will be good.

As a general comment on timing, We need to hit a Goldilocks period.

Let cases grow too fast, and we:

Risk supply chain disruptions.
Risk overloading healthcare systems.
Have less time to prepare (vaccinations, boosters, covid-19 treatments etc)

But let cases grow to slowly:

We run out of summer - risking facing our omicron peak in a colder time of year, when our hospitals typically see much higher loading in general.
Peoples vaccines protection against infection is decaying.

Should also note that when we start re-opening travel, we will see the re-emergence of RSV, Influenza, and many cold strains that NZ and Aussie both eliminated, so we haven't seen for years. Really best not to face all of this in the middle of winter.

Personally I am thinking we are running towards the end of our Goldilocks period, and that it is important to keep things moving in order to avoid a crippling winter peak of covid-19 / RSV / flu / seasonal colds. If it looks like we are running out of summer, we could consider dropping our self isolation requirement to see the likes of flu introduced into NZ sooner.

Geektastic

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#2867217 12-Feb-2022 18:04

freitasm:
Geektastic: I suspect the numbers will be low.

The consequences of testing positive are such that many people just won't bother.

The only real bad consequence is death. The rest is 'inconsequential'.

Yes but testing or not testing won't change that. They'll ring the same ambulance whatever.

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