2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2426726 25-Feb-2020 09:00

Fred99:

China has an epidemic out of control, they clamp down on travel within China, quarantining 60 million people, restricting travel and public congregation for some 700 million others.

I think it's a bit strong to say it's still out of control in China... new cases are now approximately linear at 1,000 per day or so, not exponential. So the (draconian?) measures they're taking are working, and I'd say that it's more or less under control. South Korea (and perhaps Japan) on the other hand...

Assuming that the stated numbers are accurate, of course.

Fred99

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#2426730 25-Feb-2020 09:04

frankv:

Fred99:

China has an epidemic out of control, they clamp down on travel within China, quarantining 60 million people, restricting travel and public congregation for some 700 million others.

I think it's a bit strong to say it's still out of control in China... new cases are now approximately linear at 1,000 per day or so, not exponential. So the (draconian?) measures they're taking are working, and I'd say that it's more or less under control. South Korea (and perhaps Japan) on the other hand...

Assuming that the stated numbers are accurate, of course.

It was out of control / exponential at the time they applied quarantines/travel restrictions.

Now...? "Assuming the numbers are accurate". Outsiders might be able to verify that - but China will not allow them in (WHO, US CDC etc).

tdgeek

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#2426735 25-Feb-2020 09:13

Well, I wouldn't bank on any screening. There has been a couple of articles that stated that in the US transit we were asked if we went to China, thats it. Aside from the fact that many wont show symptoms even if they are infected. Apparently foreigners are more a risk than NZ passport holders or residents, so we ban the former and allow the latter in with dubious screening, and if you can be bothered please self quarantine, and how many will rigidly self quarantine? Not many from the acqaintances I've talked to. China doesnt like our travel bans, others talk about economic costs. Its hard to see a concerted drive to control this virus.

Fred99

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#2426737 25-Feb-2020 09:23

tdgeek:

Well, I wouldn't bank on any screening. There has been a couple of articles that stated that in the US transit we were asked if we went to China, thats it. Aside from the fact that many wont show symptoms even if they are infected. Apparently foreigners are more a risk than NZ passport holders or residents, so we ban the former and allow the latter in with dubious screening, and if you can be bothered please self quarantine, and how many will rigidly self quarantine? Not many from the acqaintances I've talked to. China doesnt like our travel bans, others talk about economic costs. Its hard to see a concerted drive to control this virus.

You can't ban citizens from returning to their own country - that would open a huge can of worms. So it's not a case of "apparently foreigners are more at risk" but a case of doing what's legally and ethically possible under the circumstances. I hope it's enough.

tdgeek

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#2426742 25-Feb-2020 09:35

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Well, I wouldn't bank on any screening. There has been a couple of articles that stated that in the US transit we were asked if we went to China, thats it. Aside from the fact that many wont show symptoms even if they are infected. Apparently foreigners are more a risk than NZ passport holders or residents, so we ban the former and allow the latter in with dubious screening, and if you can be bothered please self quarantine, and how many will rigidly self quarantine? Not many from the acqaintances I've talked to. China doesnt like our travel bans, others talk about economic costs. Its hard to see a concerted drive to control this virus.

You can't ban citizens from returning to their own country - that would open a huge can of worms. So it's not a case of "apparently foreigners are more at risk" but a case of doing what's legally and ethically possible under the circumstances. I hope it's enough.

I agree but the media and Govt labelling it as part of the keep it out stage is misleading, its more a hope for the best, as its free entry to the virus and lets hope the travellers stay locked in for 14 days. On the plus side, its generally just a flu like illness, often less than that, but thats cold comfort to the vulnerable here

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#2426746 25-Feb-2020 09:44

Something that concerns me is the people that may return from overseas but actually don't care about anyone but themselves and won't self-isolate - my wife works for a kindergarten and they found out one of the children returned from an extended stay over summer in China and came straight back to Kindy (they found out after the 2 week period that's recommended), so although a non-starter for COVID-19 it highlights the attitudes of some people (the parents simply said they didn't have the time to be keeping the child at home and it's "not their problem").

Self-isolating is only as effective as those practicing it...

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#2426748 25-Feb-2020 09:48

Fred99: China has an epidemic out of control, they clamp down on travel within China, quarantining 60 million people, restricting travel and public congregation for some 700 million others.

frankv: I think it's a bit strong to say it's still out of control in China...

Fred99: It was out of control / exponential at the time they applied quarantines/travel restrictions.

Right. But you used the present tense "has".

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tdgeek

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#2426754 25-Feb-2020 09:58

Handsomedan:

Something that concerns me is the people that may return from overseas but actually don't care about anyone but themselves and won't self-isolate - my wife works for a kindergarten and they found out one of the children returned from an extended stay over summer in China and came straight back to Kindy (they found out after the 2 week period that's recommended), so although a non-starter for COVID-19 it highlights the attitudes of some people (the parents simply said they didn't have the time to be keeping the child at home and it's "not their problem").

Self-isolating is only as effective as those practicing it...

Ive talked to a few and I see that as well. Yeah, I'd do it but its inconvenient. Mates gf back from Japan, his workplace says if you see her you have to self isolate. She doesnt at her workplace. he decided to not see her for two weeks, yeah right Tui. When I ask him about it, he forgets to reply.... Pointless as he has told me a number of times. I told him, if 500 people have been exposed and one bad apple can't be arsed, we have still largely contained it. But no, pointless

Sidestep

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#2426755 25-Feb-2020 10:02

frankv:

Fred99: China has an epidemic out of control, they clamp down on travel within China, quarantining 60 million people, restricting travel and public congregation for some 700 million others.

frankv: I think it's a bit strong to say it's still out of control in China...

Fred99: It was out of control / exponential at the time they applied quarantines/travel restrictions.

Right. But you used the present tense "has".

The 'World' has an epidemic out of control.

That's because it's passed the “controlling” stage – whether the WHO's willing to label it a pandemic or not.

China – because it was 'ground zero', and able to re-instigate Mao era social controls - took a massive stab at containing this, in a way few other countries would be able or willing to.

An unprecedented shutdown of major cities, the quarantining of millions.. imagine if the USA was to suddenly announce the quarantine of New York City?

But outbreaks have shown up in several other countries – and are spreading now.

tdgeek

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#2426758 25-Feb-2020 10:11

If you get it, what can you do? Ive read that people are 'cured" afterwards, but there is no cure? What would hospitals be doing? It strikes me that if and when we get it here, that it would be good to hear what in-home treatment we can apply.

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#2426761 25-Feb-2020 10:14

tdgeek:

If you get it, what can you do? Ive read that people are 'cured" afterwards, but there is no cure? What would hospitals be doing? It strikes me that if and when we get it here, that it would be good to hear what in-home treatment we can apply.

The same as influenza, measles, etc.

gzt

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#2426762 25-Feb-2020 10:15

The response in Italy, military lockdown of some affected towns, three months prison if violation.

Batman

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#2426763 25-Feb-2020 10:16

tdgeek:

If you get it, what can you do? Ive read that people are 'cured" afterwards, but there is no cure? What would hospitals be doing? It strikes me that if and when we get it here, that it would be good to hear what in-home treatment we can apply.

The cure is by the body's immune system destroying the virus into oblivion.

I have heard there are some experimental antiviral treatments that assist the body's immune system to be more effective at identifying the virus to destroy, and some that makes the virus not reproduce properly. *hey i need to fact check this, whatever the case, they're experimental at this stage.

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#2426764 25-Feb-2020 10:18

i haven't fact checked this, but i have watched it and it could help @tdgeek

gzt

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#2426766 25-Feb-2020 10:20

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