2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2466329 20-Apr-2020 15:21

The TV 1 segment at 4 is for one hour. If it was to retain 4 for one or two weeks, do we need an hour to say why? It will be BAU. Do level 3 detail later as more to do there. If its to level 3 then lots to talk about?

Paul1977

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#2466339 20-Apr-2020 15:30

tdgeek:
The TV 1 segment at 4 is for one hour. If it was to retain 4 for one or two weeks, do we need an hour to say why? It will be BAU. Do level 3 detail later as more to do there. If its to level 3 then lots to talk about?

I think (and hope) you are reading too much into that.

tdgeek

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#2466342 20-Apr-2020 15:35

Paul1977:

tdgeek:

Im positive with how its going here, its clear that some think far too positive. But there is no way that 18 days or 28 days will eliminate it. How can we contain it in bubbles when the bubbles at home mix with at school mix with at work? If thats the case they wont burn out, they will be kept simmering and very alive.

I mean contain it within known infected bubbles. Those bubbles should be fully isolated from any other bubbles.

The highlighted bit in your quote above is exactly why we shouldn't go to L3 too early.

What you really mean is we can't use Level 3 if we have active cases?

My bolded bit which is intentionally blunt, will work IMO as I believe there is little Covid-19 out there. Its all in bubbles as you say, as it will be in L3. But a bit looser. Supermarkets managed ok. We both want the same result, you feel that L3 is risky, there will be cases galore or a blowout, or increase. I feel that L3 is low risk, as there is hardly any unknown cases. I am hugely in favour of the health outcome over economy, but IMO we have minimal cases to manage, out of 5 million of us. They are manageable IMO.

tdgeek

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#2466343 20-Apr-2020 15:37

Paul1977:
tdgeek:

The TV 1 segment at 4 is for one hour. If it was to retain 4 for one or two weeks, do we need an hour to say why? It will be BAU. Do level 3 detail later as more to do there. If its to level 3 then lots to talk about?

I think (and hope) you are reading too much into that.

Probably. If we stay at L4, I dunno how they will fill an hour.

The four criteria

1. Undetected CT is unlikely Cannot see that. That doesnt pass

2. Case ID and tracing is rapid It isnt yet, its a lot better that doesnt seem a pass

3. Isolation, border etc are robust They are

4. Health system capacity It has

Seems a fail to me to move to Level 3, Try in a week

Off to do the lawns and check later on

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#2466345 20-Apr-2020 15:43

tdgeek:

What you really mean is we can't use Level 3 if we have active cases?

No. What I mean is that I don't think we should drop to L3 until all new cases being reported are within bubbles that already have a known infected person in, and are therefore already fully isolated from the rest of the community.

I think that this is potentially achievable given a two week extension, but I'll concede is by no means guaranteed.

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#2466356 20-Apr-2020 15:53

tdgeek:

Probably. If we stay at L4, I dunno how they will fill an hour.

The journalists, and the "journalists", would shout inane questions at the PM for well over an hour, if she let the briefing run that long. Sigh.

The questions would run from the inflammatory "why does the Labour Party hate small businesses so much?" to the obscure "Of the 14 cases in Taranaki, how many are in Hawera?", and on to the bizarre "what effect will this decision have on the left-handed colour-blind LGBTI Asian community in the south island?"

Lack of any content would never dissuade the fearless members of the NZ MSM from dragging out the proceedings

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#2466358 20-Apr-2020 15:58

mattwnz:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks?cid=app-android

The problem I see with going into level 3 with the current number of daily cases we are now getting is that because there is no evidence it has been eliminated yet, and the potential infection rate under level 3 being higher than level 4 , we won't be able to actually eliminate it.

Professor Shaun Hendry said in the above article:

"I'd prefer us to stay in level four for longer. We know how well level four is working - the answer is very well. We are just so close to eliminating it."

The Government's elimination strategy doesn't necessarily mean eradication, but instead a suppression of the virus so fully that any cases that appear could be easily managed.

I think great care is needed in using the term "elimination". Note how Professor Hendry introduced two more terms in the sentence above, "eradication" and "suppression".

So, we are told that the term "elimination" doesn't necessarily mean "eradication". Fair enough, but I would prefer the term "suppression" of the virus to be used if this is the most likely outcome that NZ experts consider is relevant.

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#2466377 20-Apr-2020 16:01

kingdragonfly: The "mysterious illness" reports are from low quality sources.

I did a check of mystery deaths in Africa and also got a bunch of low-quality sources, some going back years, reporting mystery virus-related deaths. Figured it was just the 3-degree background radiation of disease outbreaks rather than anything Covid19-specific.

I also saw some scare stories about "NIGERIAN SECURITY FORCES HAVE KILLED MORE PEOPLE THAN COVID19 HAS!!!!!!!??!?!?!???!!!". It's always fun taking these things and seeing if you can find the giant hole in them in under a minute (hey, you've got to do something in lockdown to keep yourself busy). Nigerian security forces are notoriously brutal, and this is about normal for them, Covid19 or not.

In fact if you're going to play the "find the hole" game, "what's the base rate?" seems to immediately find the hole a lot of the time for shock-horror stories.

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#2466379 20-Apr-2020 16:06

Down to L3 Monday 27 April 23:59.

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#2466380 20-Apr-2020 16:09

freitasm:Down to L3 Monday 27 April 23:59.

Good decision.

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#2466382 20-Apr-2020 16:10

MikeB4:

I am talking about the virus that is why I referenced Covid-19. There is not viable treatment or vaccine and not likely to be available for general release for circa 18months. The economy is a different story.

There is a viable treatment, that is successful for the vast majority of patients. There is no cure, but (a) that's a different thing from treatment, and (b) we live with many diseases and afflictions for which there is no cure.

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#2466383 20-Apr-2020 16:10

Fred99: I think Sweden has made a grave mistake - they've got about 100x more deaths per capita than NZ/Aus

They're in serious trouble, they have ten times the death rate of their neighbour Norway (if you want to compare apples with apples) and their case curve is still in the liftoff phase while Norway is well in the recovery phase.

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#2466385 20-Apr-2020 16:16

MikeB4:
Opinions like thumbs everyone (nearly everyone) has two and everyone is entitled to have them.

Alternative version: Opinions are like a**holes, everyone has one :-).

floydbloke

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#2466387 20-Apr-2020 16:17

tdgeek:

The TV 1 segment at 4 is for one hour. If it was to retain 4 for one or two weeks, do we need an hour to say why? It will be BAU. Do level 3 detail later as more to do there. If its to level 3 then lots to talk about?

They need time to give common sense answers to all the inane questions from the 'journalists'

Sometimes I use big words I don't always fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

Paul1977

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#2466390 20-Apr-2020 16:20

freitasm:
Down to L3 Monday 27 April 23:59.

I still worry that this is still a bit early, but we’ll find out.

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