2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2468827 23-Apr-2020 18:11

The NYT has got preliminary graphs of deaths not billed to Covid19 but that are probably Covid19 deaths, based on death rates in 2020 vs. the base rate from previous years. Their estimate is that there's at least 28,000 extra deaths that haven't been classed as Covid19 deaths that likely should be. I assumed this would come at some point when it was possible to compare the current rate vs. yearly averages but didn't know the data would be available this quickly.

Which means it comes with an accompanying caveat, it's early days yet in terms of seeing trends.

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#2468828 23-Apr-2020 18:12

frednz:

Now here's a true story about a cyclist in his seventies who a few days ago went for a bike ride on a trail a few kilometres from home. He did have an underlying heart problem, but to his credit he had cycled up to 20kms per day for many years.

Unfortunately, he suffered a medical event and crashed his bike and passed away. It took some time before anyone found him. The Police were called and were very good and advised his next of kin.

But, during the time of a Level 4 lockdown, I suppose it does illustrate that if the cyclist had been infectious with covid-19 it would have put the Police officers at risk and diverted them from other essential duties. So, even when we enter Level 3, I think people should take it easy and be particularly careful when exercising and not go too far away from home.

Agree, L3 is L4 Lite, still need to lock ourselves away, and responsibly enjoy the small amount of extra freedom.

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#2468830 23-Apr-2020 18:19

vexxxboy:

The problem is not that at all.

If you’re running a high cost business, you’re only going to do that if you can make enough return to run it and make a reasonable income.

The problem is New Zealand being a low wage economy, not tourism operators sensibly seeking to to sell to customers prepared to pay a reasonable price.

Since you cannot, for example, suddenly make a Jet boat business cost less to run, if you lose those customers who can afford to use it, you may as well just wind it up. Which is what they have done.

Expect the same to happen to hotels.

then they will go out of business.

Yep. If they focus on one target market, that's an all eggs in the basket issue. For those that have been to the Hawaiis and Vegas's, you get nice deals off season. Do we do that here?

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#2468836 23-Apr-2020 18:35

tdgeek:
Yep. If they focus on one target market, that's an all eggs in the basket issue. For those that have been to the Hawaiis and Vegas's, you get nice deals off season. Do we do that here?

Definitely. Rotorua has been doing it for ages, you can get relatively cheap conference venues there during the winter. Other areas do it too to some extent, stayed at a nice place in Kerikeri in July two years ago for around $100/night and, when we wanted to go back, found that their non-winter rate was more like $300/night. It did seem pretty flash for the price we'd paid, and now we know why.

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#2468844 23-Apr-2020 18:59

TePuke Kiwifruit Picker Hostel has 1 positive case .

Testing about 250 workers, who are continuing to work as considered low risk , as rest of the workers family tested negative.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121201271/coronavirus-bay-of-plenty-seasonal-workers-to-be-tested-for-covid19

Guess we need to keep our fingers crossed on this one, as these workers work and live in close confines.

Supprised these were not top of the list for mobile random tests .

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#2468848 23-Apr-2020 19:01

Geektastic:

The problem is not that at all.

If you’re running a high cost business, you’re only going to do that if you can make enough return to run it and make a reasonable income.

The problem is New Zealand being a low wage economy, not tourism operators sensibly seeking to to sell to customers prepared to pay a reasonable price.

Since you cannot, for example, suddenly make a Jet boat business cost less to run, if you lose those customers who can afford to use it, you may as well just wind it up. Which is what they have done.

Expect the same to happen to hotels.

Many of these places have been operating for decades, and well before we had a big influx of international tourists. So they would have been largely catering for a local market earlier on. Although I understand according to one of the hosts on Newstalk ZB that more than half all tourists are made up of NZers who holiday within NZ. As people won't be able to travel overseas for holidays, there should be an increase of local tourists, if we do get rid of the virus, and lockdowns end.

The shotover jet has been going since the 1960's. Maybe part of the problem these days is the increased costs associated with health and safety etc, which is a negative cost that has caused many businesses to close down, especially small producers in the NZ food industry over the last few years, where the cost of compliance outweighs the profit.

My understanding is that many of these businesses are only being temporarily closed for now, including the shotover. It is the same all over the world. For example Disnleyland have closed all their parks, and they are going to be closed for a long time.

Also if business do close down permanently, new ones will likely start up to replace them over time, and things will recover. Some business models however may not work in a post covid world, but new ones may replace then. Many well known business have actually setup and done well during recessions. After any stock market crash, the market has always recovered and then grown, and I can't see why this would be any different over the long term. The problem is short term, but that is where a pro active government comes in to make sure everyone can still live and feed themselves etc, with things like wage subsidies. Also read that they aren't opposed to helicopter money, which is something that appears to be happening overseas.

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#2468850 23-Apr-2020 19:03

neb:
tdgeek:

Yep. If they focus on one target market, that's an all eggs in the basket issue. For those that have been to the Hawaiis and Vegas's, you get nice deals off season. Do we do that here?

Definitely. Rotorua has been doing it for ages, you can get relatively cheap conference venues there during the winter. Other areas do it too to some extent, stayed at a nice place in Kerikeri in July two years ago for around $100/night and, when we wanted to go back, found that their non-winter rate was more like $300/night. It did seem pretty flash for the price we'd paid, and now we know why.

Nice, for tourism to work here, much more of that.

First time I was in Vegas, we stayed at the Tropicana, next to MGM Grand. US$49 per night, great value. Hawaii is the same. Im keen on seeing more of NZ

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#2468853 23-Apr-2020 19:10

mattwnz:

Many of these places have been operating for decades, and well before we had a big influx of international tourists. So they would have been largely catering for a local market earlier on. Although I understand according to one of the hosts on Newstalk ZB that more than half all tourists are made up of NZers who holiday within NZ. As people won't be able to travel overseas for holidays, there should be an increase of local tourists, if we do get rid of the virus, and lockdowns end.

The shotover jet has been going since the 1960's. Maybe part of the problem these days is the increased costs associated with health and safety etc, which is a negative cost that has caused many businesses to close down, especially small producers in the NZ food industry over the last few years, where the cost of compliance outweighs the profit.

My understanding is that many of these businesses are only being temporarily closed for now, including the shotover. It is the same all over the world. For example Disnleyland have closed all their parks, and they are going to be closed for a long time.

Also if business do close down permanently, new ones will likely start up to replace them over time, and things will recover. Some business models however may not work in a post covid world, but new ones may replace then. Many well known business have actually setup and done well during recessions. After any stock market crash, the market has always recovered and then grown, and I can't see why this would be any different over the long term. The problem is short term, but that is where a pro active government comes in to make sure everyone can still live and feed themselves etc, with things like wage subsidies. Also read that they aren't opposed to helicopter money, which is something that appears to be happening overseas.

Well said. Some poorly run businesses may fold, leaving the others to do better. Thats life.

Im not keen on helicopter money. Happy to recieve a free 1k, but its not targeted. We aren't a manufacturing country, we import our fun stuff, DIY stuff, geek stuff, helicopter money will support other countries more than us. Its not ideal, or possibly legal, to fund a Buy NZ gift, as that will likely go against free trade. Not sure how to manage such a grant.

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#2468864 23-Apr-2020 19:46

From a friend in the US:

In my own area [Texas], people have spent their stimulus checks buying lots of new guns and thousands of rounds of ammo

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#2468866 23-Apr-2020 19:52

neb: From a friend in the US:
In my own area [Texas], people have spent their stimulus checks buying lots of new guns and thousands of rounds of ammo

That'll do it! Nothing terrifies a virus like a big gun.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2468868 23-Apr-2020 19:58

Rikkitic:
That'll do it! Nothing terrifies a virus like a big gun.

That was his comment as well, "what are they going to do, shoot the virus?".

Did any US leader actually tell their constituents to be careful with the money, don't waste it, save it for when you need it? Or was it just "here's your lump sum cash handout from the money-printing fairy, enjoy".

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#2468874 23-Apr-2020 20:29

neb:
Rikkitic:

That'll do it! Nothing terrifies a virus like a big gun.

That was his comment as well, "what are they going to do, shoot the virus?". Did any US leader actually tell their constituents to be careful with the money, don't waste it, save it for when you need it? Or was it just "here's your lump sum cash handout from the money-printing fairy, enjoy".

That would defeat the point of a stimulus cheque.

The whole idea of stimulus is to inject money into the economy, not have people stash it for a rainy day. As the money moves through the economy it keeps people in jobs, who in turn keep spending money etc etc.

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#2468877 23-Apr-2020 20:41

Handle9:
The whole idea of stimulus is to inject money into the economy, not have people stash it for a rainy day. As the money moves through the economy it keeps people in jobs, who in turn keep spending money etc etc.

Ahh, good point.

However, despite its marketing name, was it really meant for that or to support the large number of people in the US who have no job security, no income protection, no health insurance, no ....? In other words it was intended as a "set this aside for food, power, water, and medical bills because without it you're screwed".

Edited to add: The reason I'm asking is that the official description of what it's for is a bit confused, despite it being called a stimulus it's described as "send Americans stimulus payments to provide relief for economic hardships caused by the coronavirus pandemic". That makes it more a financial relief payment than a stimulus payment.

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#2468878 23-Apr-2020 20:44

tdgeek:

Well said. Some poorly run businesses may fold, leaving the others to do better. Thats life.

That's a pretty dumb statement. Saying a business that targets overseas tourism is poorly run is both dumb and callous.

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#2468879 23-Apr-2020 20:45

neb:
Handle9:

The whole idea of stimulus is to inject money into the economy, not have people stash it for a rainy day. As the money moves through the economy it keeps people in jobs, who in turn keep spending money etc etc.

Ahh, good point. However, despite it's marketing name, was it really meant for that or to support the large number of people in the US who have no job security, no income protection, no health insurance, no ....? In other words it was intended as a "set this aside for food, power, water, and medical bills because without it you're screwed".

If you wanted to support people during hard times you'd do it in a different way to cutting a cheque for the entire tax paying population (except for none WASP immigrants of course).

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