SaltyNZ:

 

Bobdn:  Will electric cars ever be affordable to the masses over the next 40 years (my life time!)?  I'm not hopeful. 

 

Yes, they will. For one thing, a lot of very big countries and some cities - including Auckland - will be banning ICE cars on a 10-20 year horizon.

Short answer, absolutely, yes. 

Long answer: It is a lot closer than most people know. Once lithium batteries cost goes down to USD$100 per kW/hr, EV will be the same price for the same range as petrol. Once batteries go below USD$100 the ICE is dead because EV will give better value for money. The question is when will batteries reach this magical threshold of USD$100 - well it was projected to be around 2022, but a Chinese company recently announced they will break this threshold in 2020. 

Allowing a couple of years for this to trickle into the consumer market and you could expect EV's of equal range and cost compared to ICE to be available 2024.

While bans on ICE will give manufactures the confidence and drive to develop EV's it will likely be EV's undercutting ICE before the legislation even kicks in that kills ICE.

SaltyNZ:

Bobdn:

 Will electric cars ever be affordable to the masses over the next 40 years (my life time!)?  I'm not hopeful. 

 

Yes, they will. For one thing, a lot of very big countries and some cities - including Auckland - will be banning ICE cars on a 10-20 year horizon.

 

We almost got there but you can't fight economics and win.  Just sad.  

 

We may or may not be awash in 'cheap oil' right now - if so, I haven't seen it; petrol is still around $2.10-$2.20/L around here - but the thing about oil is that a) it is going to run out, b) most of it is controlled by the most unstable, human-rights-abusive regimes on the planet and c) Mazda notwithstanding, most global manufacturing groups are going all out on EVs in the next 5 years. If Tesla went out of business tomorrow, that would be sad, but it isn't the end of EVs.

In fact, even Mazda is currently in a partnership with Toyota to exchange their SkyActiv engines for Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell technology.

The problem is that government grows accustomed to the revenue and can't live without it when it starts drying up - like smoking. Then they look to create lots of new taxes that discourage productive activities, but not in their first term or power - oh wait hang on - !

There are plenty of reasons other than pollution to encourage reduced petrol consumption, such as because you have blocked oil/gas exploration and need to sort out an alternate. Or strategic reasons like energy independence. Or to create new domestic industries to encourage growth. The problem is we don't chose clever leaders with vision, so they tackle the symptom, not the problem, and they prefer to offer the stick, not the carrot. 

O.T. but if the government doesn't want me to smoke, drive, drink or speed and therefore taxes those activities, they obviously also do not want me to save money for my retirement because they tax kiwisaver interest!

kingdragonfly: 

 

Woods said the contestable fund was also open to smaller businesses.

EECA's Richard Briggs, who manages the scheme, said contestable funding meant that a panel would rank applicants to ensure recipients gave the widest public benefit. This was why supermarkets had been chosen so that large numbers of people would have access to charging stations while they shopped, he said.
...

So in other words, small businesses are not likely to get a look in at all, even if they can technically apply.

Can't wait until they start giving money to Maccas and KFC so we can have inductive charging in drive thrus. 

I think you need to read up on who has been receiving money. There are some pretty small businesses getting cash. It seems to be aimed at a combination of sponsoring innovation, raising the public profile and facilitating  uptake. It certainly isn't all big business, just outfits that can sell their idea to EECA.

https://www.eeca.govt.nz/funding-and-support/low-emission-vehicles-contestable-fund/low-emission-vehicles-contestable-fund-successful-projects/

Sorry if I am posting it on the wrong Forum but I have tried searching for a correct one and could not find it. 

I have last month bought a Tesla Model X 75D WITHOUT Enhanced Auto Pilot and before I left on a holiday I was prompted for a Trial option for 30 days to try it out and I ignored it as I was about to leave for six weeks and it was pointless. 

I cannot see that option anymore now, does anyone have model x on a trial and can you confirm if this is the case? 

Bobdn:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-to-cut-its-workforce-by-around-7-percent.html

 

 

 

Looks like Tesla is in a spot of bother.  Will electric cars ever be affordable to the masses over the next 40 years (my life time!)?  I'm not hopeful. 

 

 

 

I'd expect more layoff's from Tesla as well.

I saw this article over the weekend on another site (AutoCar NZ), and although Tesla have turned a profit, this is on the back of the higher spec'd Model 3, not the entry level car.

Also, I saw that the subsidy in the US drops again this year and is gone by 2020.

https://www.autocar.co.nz/autocar-news-app/tesla-to-lay-off-more-workers

And with the European manufacturer's (Mercedes-Benz \ Audi \ Jaguar) now adding fully electric cars to there lineups, Tesla are going to have to keep a lid on costs.

This thread probably as good as any @maxeon but perhaps now's the time to start a Tesla thread?? Akin to the Leaf one. Not sure if many Tesla owners in GZ though...

paulchinnz:

 

This thread probably as good as any @maxeon but perhaps now's the time to start a Tesla thread?? Akin to the Leaf one. Not sure if many Tesla owners in GZ though...

 

That would be awesome if we can discuss about Tesla only in a separate thread from fellow GZ members if there are a few. 

SaltyNZ: We may or may not be awash in 'cheap oil' right now - if so, I haven't seen it; petrol is still around $2.10-$2.20/L around here - but the thing about oil is that a) it is going to run out, b) most of it is controlled by the most unstable, human-rights-abusive regimes on the planet and c) Mazda notwithstanding, most global manufacturing groups are going all out on EVs in the next 5 years. If Tesla went out of business tomorrow, that would be sad, but it isn't the end of EVs.

 

In fact, even Mazda is currently in a partnership with Toyota to exchange their SkyActiv engines for Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell technology.

 

Looks like there will be plenty of oil around for a while yet. The second and third to last paragraphs tend to sum it up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109903459/saudi-arabia-has-more-oil-than-the-world-may-ever-need

clevedon:

 

Looks like there will be plenty of oil around for a while yet. The second and third to last paragraphs tend to sum it up.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109903459/saudi-arabia-has-more-oil-than-the-world-may-ever-need

 

Saudi Arabia? If there was one country I wouldn't want to be propping up for no better than that it was temporarily slightly more convenient, Saudi Arabia would be near the top of the list.

SaltyNZ:

 

clevedon:

 

Looks like there will be plenty of oil around for a while yet. The second and third to last paragraphs tend to sum it up.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109903459/saudi-arabia-has-more-oil-than-the-world-may-ever-need

 

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia? If there was one country I wouldn't want to be propping up for no better than that it was temporarily slightly more convenient, Saudi Arabia would be near the top of the list.

 

What you do personally doesn't change the fact though in reality, there is more than enough oil to go around for a very long time for the world yet - even at today's demand and rising through until 2040.