EV (electric vehicle) News & Discussion

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8312 posts

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#2728302 14-Jun-2021 10:42

Obraik:

According to the opendata portal, looking at just private passenger vehicles (so excluding company/rental cars), there were 238,528 vehicle registrations last year. 120,070 of those were for new vehicles, 117,766 were used imports. So assuming I've filtered correctly, more vehicles introduced last year were brand new vs used imports

Yeah, its about a 50/50 split,

There is good data on the new models sold from the MIA... there are ALOT of Utes,

https://www.mia.org.nz/Sales-Data/Vehicle-Sales

wellygary

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#2728303 14-Jun-2021 10:44

tdgeek:

So? The chips issue affects all cars. If vehicle imports are affected by the chip issue, the import volumes (of all cars) will reduce. But, the percentage of EV's in any given month should now spiral upward given this rebate?

It could be argued that new models ( which are on average more likely to be EVs) are more impacted..

Chip manufacturers are likely to use their limited production capacity to service current orders rather than take on anything new..

While car manufacturers will likely be able the use exiting supplies for many things, the growth of large screen interfaces in many EVs will see the chip demands continue to climb in these newer models

frankv

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#2728305 14-Jun-2021 10:46

Batman:

somebody make a list of all the current EV prices now.

in a few months they will go up by $8625

I don't think so. Anecdotally, dealers find new BEVs hard to sell, presumably because the NZ public prefers ICEs at the respective prices. So an $8k price reduction should speed up BEV sales.

frankv

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#2728306 14-Jun-2021 10:48

Dingbatt:

You seem to be getting economic sense confused with ideology.🤔 Otherwise why is the rebate limited to vehicles under $80000?

Because those cars won't be for sale in 5 or even 10 years time for under $10K.

SaltyNZ

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#2728310 14-Jun-2021 10:54

tdgeek:

Well no. In his example the rebate is wasted money should he buy a lower emission vehicle.

Are you suggesting he'll tell the government they can keep their rebate? I don't think that's how it will work out.

And should he buy an ICE, the rebate has not worked

No, in that case he may pay a fee - which is fine, because that's how the rebates are funded. It's a thumb on the scale. Not kicking over the table and setting fire to the furniture.

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tdgeek

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#2728311 14-Jun-2021 10:56

wellygary:

It could be argued that new models ( which are on average more likely to be EVs) are more impacted..

Chip manufacturers are likely to use their limited production capacity to service current orders rather than take on anything new..

While car manufacturers will likely be able the use exiting supplies for many things, the growth of large screen interfaces in many EVs will see the chip demands continue to climb in these newer models

According to SPGGlobal, EV production globally is very small. All cars use chips and they all use screens. All cars are affected. So if new car imports decrease for all cars, that still means that the effect of the rebate can still be seen. One would expect a large skew towards EV's, % wise.

We now forecast global auto sales will expand by 8%-10% in 2021 to 83 million-85 million units, up from 77 million in 2020.
The pace of recovery is uneven regionally, with China leading, North America following, and Europe likely lagging behind.
Electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) are set to increase in 2021 to a 6%-8% of the global share of the market, after comprising a 4.4% share in 2020 and 2.5% in 2019. The European market will drive this growth.
Visibility on the semiconductor shortage crisis is still very low and hopes of a recovery in the second half of this year are fading. The impact on individual auto manufacturers varies substantially.

tdgeek

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#2728366 14-Jun-2021 11:07

He said "It’s not enough discount or penalty to stop me buying the car I want regardless of the engine in it. "

If the discount or penalty was more effective it could sway him to a greener car, that's the whole point. To change the market, not to give cash to buyers who were going to buy anyway as they can afford it. I don't there are many that are saying I can't afford the 80k car but I can afford the 72k car. But those that held off due to the 8k carrot of a couple of years ago can now go ahead. Wasting two years of ICE fumes in order to get the cash

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GV27

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#2728368 14-Jun-2021 11:10

tdgeek:

He said "It’s not enough discount or penalty to stop me buying the car I want regardless of the engine in it. "

If the discount or penalty was more effective it could sway him to a greener car, that's the whole point. To change the market, not to give cash to buyers who were going to buy anyway as they can afford it. I don't there are many that are saying I can't afford the 80k car but I can afford the 72k car. But those that held off due to the 8k carrot of a couple of years ago can now go ahead. Wasting two years of ICE fumes in order to get the cash

It's an 8K carrot on the $50K current-gen MG ZS EV (which in ICE trim is apparently bollocks but shines as an EV) as well. So now you're down into the low $40,XXXs and models that have previously not been worth entertaining due to being a bit weak are back on the table for some people.

I think the ZS is due an update in the next 12 months too which should push the range out a bit.

halper86

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#2728371 14-Jun-2021 11:11

I wonder how many people will cheat this scheme and make money off these "feebates"?

SaltyNZ

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#2728375 14-Jun-2021 11:17

halper86:

I wonder how many people will cheat this scheme and make money off these "feebates"?

By doing what? Buying an EV, taking the rebate, and then selling the (now used) car again for way less than they paid for it (with the used buyer knowing that the car just got a rebate on it so they'll expect that knocked off the used price too)? ... Knock yourself out I guess.

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tdgeek

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#2728376 14-Jun-2021 11:20

GV27:

It's an 8K carrot on the $50K current-gen MG ZS EV (which in ICE trim is apparently bollocks but shines as an EV) as well. So now you're down into the low $40,XXXs and models that have previously not been worth entertaining due to being a bit weak are back on the table for some people.

I think the ZS is due an update in the next 12 months too which should push the range out a bit.

If that size suits. Is 50 to 42 going to make it a no brainer? What else can you buy new for 42 that's not an EV? Bigger, better, better brand? If you have a roomy 4 door, I dont want to pay an Audi price for a Toyota. Ill pay an Audi for an Audi and Toyota for a Toyota. But lets see what happens, I expect and massive % change in new and used imports

SaltyNZ

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#2728424 14-Jun-2021 11:23

tdgeek:

If that size suits. Is 50 to 42 going to make it a no brainer? What else can you buy new for 42 that's not an EV? Bigger, better, better brand? If you have a roomy 4 door, I dont want to pay an Audi price for a Toyota. Ill pay an Audi for an Audi and Toyota for a Toyota. But lets see what happens, I expect and massive % change in new and used imports

It's what I plan to swap the Leaf for. I was going to have to do something next year regardless as battery continues to drop in my extremely-well-used Leaf but now it puts a decent replacement with a battery warranty (!) in reach instead of swapping it for another Leaf.

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tdgeek

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#2728427 14-Jun-2021 11:25

halper86:

I wonder how many people will cheat this scheme and make money off these "feebates"?

I don't see how. Not unless dealers who bring in used cars keep the price up as "it includes the rebate and its in great nick and got features" but you would hope the market will solve that if most dealers keep the price correct. Actually, who gets that rebate? The used import dealer or the first private buyer of that car?

Jaxson

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#2728432 14-Jun-2021 11:28

SaltyNZ:

It's what I plan to swap the Leaf for. I was going to have to do something next year regardless as battery continues to drop in my extremely-well-used Leaf but now it puts a decent replacement with a battery warranty (!) in reach instead of swapping it for another Leaf.

Jokes aside, what is the plan for these leafs with stuffed batteries (no thermal management / cooling on their battery packs) when they all start reaching this point?

Is there a viable battery replacement option for a car that costs what $10k by that stage or less?

Is anyone offering a service to refresh/replace these?

And where do you dump the old battery packs?

Are people going to dump a whole car at that point as scrap?

Can the batteries be recycled or is it just pure waste?

I know a few people with leafs, who are just happily using them and feel part of a green club.
What I don't hear much is what the actual plan is over the next 5 - 10 years when their capacity is dramatically deminished.

Geektastic

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#2728434 14-Jun-2021 11:31

wellygary:

tdgeek:

Norway has a large market share on road of EV's, they have the rebate system, and I assume that's been in place for some time. Given its now 2021 there are far more models and ranges available, and I assume production volume, so it would seem that the Kiwi rebate scheme will have massive numbers arriving in the near future?

Haven't you heard of the global Chip Crunch?

Car manufacturers globally are having to limit production of many model simply because they can't raw components,

An example is Nissan's Ariya which has had its Japan Launch pushed back until very late '21 early 22 with the Rest of the world to follow some time after that

https://www.autocar.co.nz/autocar-news-app/chip-shortage-forces-nissan-to-delay-all-important-ev

Tesla have pushed back deliveries for the new S and X by up to 3 months...

Then there is shipping...

EV dealers in NZ are really going to struggle to get new stock

I read somewhere that the number of RHD EVs made is a small number of the total and NZ is way down the list of priorities for supply.

I think someone from the AA said that their info was that there was little chance of meeting the required supply to achieve a 2030 ish deadline.

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