EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

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#3226360 4-May-2024 10:58

Obraik:

dafman:

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

Why is the refreshed Model 3 not considered a second generation by yourself? There's a lot different about it both in aesthetics and under the hood as well.

By next generation, I mean an all new car, not a mid-life aesthetic upgrade - which typically happens about three years into life (eg. revised grill, lights, mirrors, interior updates). The Model 3 got its aesthetic upgrade at an age when most other manufacturers release an all new generation.

Tesla innovated early, and well, and reaped the rewards. But they are squandering this success through entertaining Elon’s follies (Cybertruck, Roadster). There are no new mainstream Tesla’s on the horizon (as far as I am aware). In three years time the Model 3 will be a 10-year old design trying to compete in an aggressively innovative market. I just don’t see this as being sustainable.

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#3226367 4-May-2024 11:40

Scott3:

We were at about 15% market share last year. This puts us right at the Chasm in the adoption curve. The innovators are probably onto their second or third EV & the early EV adaptors have already purchased one, but we have yet to cross the Chasm into the early majority.

Agree, but it will be interesting to see how big the chasm is and whether EV’s can effectively cross it any time soon.

I would argue that EV’s aren't yet ready for pragmatists to adopt.

Just one example:

You need 50% adoption to get to the top of the curve. Imagine 50% of all Auckland holiday traffic descending on Taupo seeking a 30 minute charge. (Hint: google Auckland holiday traffic and look at the images to get a good idea of scale).

You simply can’t build, any time soon, the significant charging infrastructure required to support this level of demand. 50% of travellers will still be ICE, so Taupo will require significant new electric charging infrastructure to be built separate to existing petrol options. Imagine the capital expenditure that would be required to equip little old Taupo to be able to deliver simultaneous fast charging to hundreds of cars at a single point in time, while still serving the ICE demand?

And then of course there is the wait. I’ve queued at Taupo waiting for 5 minute petrol refill - imagine this 5 mins spinning out to 30 mins for hundreds of drivers all needing a recharge at same time?

10 EV’s requiring a 30 minute recharge at Taupo at a single point in time, not an issue. 500 EV’s?

HarmLessSolutions

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#3226374 4-May-2024 12:23

@dafman A couple of points to consider are that NZ's traffic loads are fairly mediocre compared to that of the UK and their public charging infrastructure is rising to the challenge as I'm sure ours will too as EV numbers rise here. The Gridserve network is one of many such public charging initiatives in the UK with some pretty impressive examples including this flagship one at Braintree in the SE.

The other point is that EV range and personal initiatives will mean that not every EV leaving Auckland will need to charge in one location, if indeed they are actually routing through Taupo. The recent announcements on public charging planned in NZ will hopefully see large purpose built facilities such as the Gridserve ones intelligently located along our state highway network to coincide with traffic flows at peak periods and offering dining, toilets and other facilities which both make them economically viable operations and enticing to the travelling public.

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Scott3

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#3226376 4-May-2024 12:35

Obraik:

dafman:

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

Why is the refreshed Model 3 not considered a second generation by yourself? There's a lot different about it both in aesthetics and under the hood as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facelift_(automotive)

It's fairly established in the auto industry that a new generation (or in marketing speak an "All New" model), requires not only a design overhaul, but new design underpinnings as well.

While the changes for the model 3 highland were extensive & go beyond cosmetic, it is the car still have the same underpinnings.

It is also possible as with the Nissan leaf in 2013, to have a mid cycle refresh without a facelift, but with lots of other changes.

There is not any obligation for an automaker to produce new generation of a car. If the underpinnings are good they can keep making updates to it, to keep it current. The question is will this be enough to keep enough market share in face of new competion.

As examples of cars with long generation lifespans:

The poster child, 70 series land cruisers: Production from 1984 - Present. Many tweaks, refreshes and drivetrain options along the way, but no generational changes in 50 years. Buyers for this are happy that they get the same basic car from 50 years ago, but with the likes of modern engines and infotainment added.
6th Generation Mitsubishis Mirage: 2012 - present (no longer sold in NZ). has gone through first and second facelift. In this case keeping a car where the development costs have been recovered long ago allows Mitsubishi to sell the car cheap, which is appealing for it's market, while refreshes added modern styling & features like apple carplay to it doesn't look (too) dated. Also how the ANCAP crash test scoring works they get to wear their 5 star crash rating from 2013, although tests have got way harder since so the car would get a low score if tested again.

Obraik

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#3226427 4-May-2024 13:15

To me, it seems the difference between a Facelift and a new generation is purely opinion, which I think this page describes pretty well. In my opinion, the 2021-2023 Model 3 was a facelift of the original as it picked up a new dash and some other minor changes. I would however consider the 2024 model to be a new generation as it changes not only the looks but the suspension, motors, safety systems, audio system, computer hardware, etc etc. Taking the word at face value, a "facelift" to me implies cosmetic changes only.

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#3226619 5-May-2024 12:44

HarmLessSolutions: ... The recent announcements on public charging planned in NZ will hopefully see large purpose built facilities such as the Gridserve ones intelligently located along our state highway network to coincide with traffic flows at peak periods ...

IME, this kind of thing takes at least 5-10 for planning & construction. Without this type of infrastructure, adoption will remain low, i.e. I expect EV usage to only "jump the chasm" in the 2030's. That is still a long time away & I hope I'm wrong.

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exador

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#3227195 6-May-2024 20:48

New EV sales plummeted to 262 in April. Top seller Tesla MY with 48 units.

The wheels have definitely fallen off the (EV) bus…

Scott3

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#3227211 6-May-2024 21:41

exador: New EV sales plummeted to 262 in April. Top seller Tesla MY with 48 units.

The wheels have definitely fallen off the (EV) bus…

The whole of this year is looking pretty sad frankly.

jarledb

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#3227544 8-May-2024 00:19

Z Energy have been marketing their free power for the 7th of May. Visited Z Levin, they were having none of it.

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Technofreak

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#3227545 8-May-2024 00:26

jarledb:

Z Energy have been marketing their free power for the 7th of May. Visited Z Levin, they were having none of it.

That's a tad unfortunate.

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heavenlywild

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#3227555 8-May-2024 08:08

Was the paint really wet or was the station just not having any of this freebie business? 😅

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billgates

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#3227734 8-May-2024 10:27

I got a free charge yesterday at my local Z.

Do whatever you want to do man.

jarledb

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#3227907 8-May-2024 15:05

heavenlywild:

Was the paint really wet or was the station just not having any of this freebie business? 😅

They seem to have re-marked the charging bays. Z says it was the contractor surprising them with the scheduling for the work that day.

If I had worked at that station I would have told the contractors to come back another day.

Scott3

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#3228106 8-May-2024 21:56

That image is quite symbolic of how quickly CHAdeMO is becoming the secondary charge standard.

3x 200kW CCS2 chargers

1x 25kW CHAdeMO charger

I'm not sure what is worse, the there only being a single CHAdeMO cord (increasing the impact of a broken / occupied charger), or that it is only 25kW.

(on the plus side 25kW is actually good for people doing road trips in 24 / 30kWh leaf's as it much reduces the amount of heat going into the battery, which is important if you try to do more than two fast charges in a day)

A but of a pity given modern CHAdeMO stuff is capable of maxing out a 50kW charger for a decent portion of the charge cycle:

Leaf e+

Nissan LEAF Might Have A Good Fast Charging Curve With Active TMS

JDM Ariya:

Nissan Ariya Japanese Spec CHADEMO charge curve : r/electricvehicles

Obraik

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#3228122 8-May-2024 22:50

When I last looked the other month, around 65% of all EVs in NZ use CCS2, so it makes sense that CCS2 chargers are being prioritised

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