Another (2nd) 737 Max 8 crash

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#2266255 28-Jun-2019 13:21

frankv:

I think there's a couple of aspects to this:

1. Why didn't they follow Boeing's instructions? They weren't willfully doing something stupid like aerobatics or low flying or anything. They were desperately trying to save their own lives and those of their passengers. I think it's safe to assume they did they best that they could. Clearly, from what they experienced they somehow decided that Boeing's instructions wouldn't work.

2. When people doing their best end up crashing, you have to look for systemic problems like inadequate training or inadequate instructions.

3. It's a standard tactic to where possible blame the pilots whenever there's a crash, because that exempts the airline and manufacturer and everyone else from damages. We only have to look at the Erebus crash to see the lengths that they will go to in falsely blaming the pilots. So any move to blame the pilots needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

4. It does seem to me that, if the aircraft was in fact airworthy and recoverable, then some intensive pilot training in the recovery procedure would have sufficed. Instead, we're seeing months of software updates and documentation reviews and so on. That says to me that it's not as straightforward as we're being led to believe.

I largely agree with what you say here. I have some comments which I'll address using the paragraph numbers you used.

I'm not sure sure they decided Boeing's instructions didn't work but rather they didn't understand them correctly. I say this because the actions recorded on the FDR and CVR show the procedures were not followed correctly. Training? Language translation issues? Inadequate wording?
Agreed, and this is one point I have made previously.
Agreed, but the evidence so far shows some level error from the pilots in this case. Like all accidents there isn't one cause.
I think there's two points here.
1. I believe (I'm not alone on this) the aircraft was recoverable and better training which I believe will come, will mean in future this type of accident shouldn't happen.
2. If the system can be improved then Boeing and the FAA would be remiss not to take action and make improvements, be it improvements to the documentation or the system itself or both.

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#2266264 28-Jun-2019 13:44

sbiddle:
I look at this story now in the exact opposite way many others might.

Will this make the MAX one of the safest aircraft in the skies to fly on once it returns to service?

It's now seen a level of scrutiny that's potentially far beyond what any other modern aircraft has seen. While other aircraft may not have crashed, the same design processes and check systems would have occurred regardless of whether the aircraft was made by Boeing, Airbus or any other commercial manufacturer. What would be find in other aircraft is such scrutiny was applied to them?

I tend to agree the additional verification is a good thing. There are other factors.

Boeing in effect 'self certified' a number of aspects of the original design. FAA engineer concerns about this have been reported. Regulatory capture is being seen as a factor. Several outlets have reported on that.

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/03/23/regulatory-capture-may-be-responsible-for-boeings-recent-problems/

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#2266274 28-Jun-2019 13:51

Here's an update on the latest from someone who seems to know the plane fairly well. He has done over the months quite a few 737 Max videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isy9yAU6ajQ

Regards,

Old3eyes

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#2311974 6-Sep-2019 20:19

737 Max UPDATE "Delays"

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#2311979 6-Sep-2019 20:43

He did some slick coverage of the wild fires and water bomber action a couple of seasons back.

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#2320363 19-Sep-2019 14:28

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/what-really-brought-down-the-boeing-737-max/ar-AAHun78

A long but comprehensive and absorbing read on the incidents and investigation.

TLDR: Yes geopolitical factors, industry pressures, Boeing design flaws, culture, corruption and incompetence all played a part.

But had the pilots been properly trained and experienced, capable of demonstrating that essential quality known as "airmanship", they would have been able to recognise and handle the situation they were in, and recover safe control simply by flipping a couple of switches. It was that easy.

The author predicts that long term, Boeing will eventually have to follow Airbus' lead and go with more automated flight controls.

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#2320425 19-Sep-2019 14:56

ShiroHagen:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/what-really-brought-down-the-boeing-737-max/ar-AAHun78

A long but comprehensive and absorbing read on the incidents and investigation.

TLDR: Yes geopolitical factors, industry pressures, Boeing design flaws, culture, corruption and incompetence all played a part.

But had the pilots been properly trained and experienced, capable of demonstrating that essential quality known as "airmanship", they would have been able to recognise and handle the situation they were in, and recover safe control simply by flipping a couple of switches. It was that easy.

The author predicts that long term, Boeing will eventually have to follow Airbus' lead and go with more automated flight controls.

from your article, with regards to AIRMANSHIP:

“Airmanship” ... cannot be expected of airline pilots who never fly solo and whose entire experience consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence, refer to “air pockets” in cocktail conversation and think they are near death if bank angles exceed 30 degrees. The problem exists for many American and European pilots, too. Unless they make extraordinary efforts — for instance, going out to fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes or wander among the airstrips of backcountry Idaho — they may never develop true airmanship no matter the length of their careers. The worst of them are intimidated by their airplanes and remain so until they retire or die.

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#2320439 19-Sep-2019 15:06

ShiroHagen:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/what-really-brought-down-the-boeing-737-max/ar-AAHun78

A long but comprehensive and absorbing read on the incidents and investigation.

TLDR: Yes geopolitical factors, industry pressures, Boeing design flaws, culture, corruption and incompetence all played a part.

But had the pilots been properly trained and experienced, capable of demonstrating that essential quality known as "airmanship", they would have been able to recognise and handle the situation they were in, and recover safe control simply by flipping a couple of switches. It was that easy.

The author predicts that long term, Boeing will eventually have to follow Airbus' lead and go with more automated flight controls.

Yes the solution was easy. One off duty Lion Air pilot did it just fine 3 days prior. They just needed to identify trim control malfunction and disable trim control after being trained on ipads.

Imagine a taxi company hiring 16 year olds to watch over Tesla taxis with autopilot but not being told that the autopilot sometimes crashes or kills you. I don't blame the 16 year old kids when it crashes.

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#2320522 19-Sep-2019 16:42

Batman:

“Airmanship” ... cannot be expected of airline pilots who never fly solo and whose entire experience consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence, refer to “air pockets” in cocktail conversation and think they are near death if bank angles exceed 30 degrees. The problem exists for many American and European pilots, too. Unless they make extraordinary efforts — for instance, going out to fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes or wander among the airstrips of backcountry Idaho — they may never develop true airmanship no matter the length of their careers. The worst of them are intimidated by their airplanes and remain so until they retire or die.

No airline pilot's total experience "consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence", no matter what nationality. They've *all* got to the airliner captain's seat by way of thousands of hours of flight experience, with several hundred hours in light aircraft and commuter airlines, with plenty of experience in solo flight, turbulence, and steep turns. And the vast majority of airline pilots are there because they love to fly, and therefore when not carting people to and from their holidays, they *do* fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes, or fly to out-of-the-way airstrips. It's not extraordinary efforts, it's just what they *want* to do.

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#2320578 19-Sep-2019 17:39

frankv:
Batman:

“Airmanship” ... cannot be expected of airline pilots who never fly solo and whose entire experience consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence, refer to “air pockets” in cocktail conversation and think they are near death if bank angles exceed 30 degrees. The problem exists for many American and European pilots, too. Unless they make extraordinary efforts — for instance, going out to fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes or wander among the airstrips of backcountry Idaho — they may never develop true airmanship no matter the length of their careers. The worst of them are intimidated by their airplanes and remain so until they retire or die.

No airline pilot's total experience "consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence", no matter what nationality. They've *all* got to the airliner captain's seat by way of thousands of hours of flight experience, with several hundred hours in light aircraft and commuter airlines, with plenty of experience in solo flight, turbulence, and steep turns. And the vast majority of airline pilots are there because they love to fly, and therefore when not carting people to and from their holidays, they *do* fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes, or fly to out-of-the-way airstrips. It's not extraordinary efforts, it's just what they *want* to do.

So the article is not entirely good I take it

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#2320814 19-Sep-2019 22:56

Batman:

Yes the solution was easy. One off duty Lion Air pilot did it just fine 3 days prior. They just needed to identify trim control malfunction and disable trim control after being trained on ipads.

Imagine a taxi company hiring 16 year olds to watch over Tesla taxis with autopilot but not being told that the autopilot sometimes crashes or kills you. I don't blame the 16 year old kids when it crashes.

These weren't 16 year olds without any experience or training. The trim malfunction procedures are something that would/should have been taught and the pilots should have known about, even before they did the iPad training for the 737 Max.

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#2320821 19-Sep-2019 23:16

frankv:

No airline pilot's total experience "consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence", no matter what nationality. They've *all* got to the airliner captain's seat by way of thousands of hours of flight experience, with several hundred hours in light aircraft and commuter airlines, with plenty of experience in solo flight, turbulence, and steep turns. And the vast majority of airline pilots are there because they love to fly, and therefore when not carting people to and from their holidays, they *do* fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes, or fly to out-of-the-way airstrips. It's not extraordinary efforts, it's just what they *want* to do.

This might be normal for the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand and one or two other parts of the world but for a lot of Europe, Asia etc this isn't the case. There is no General Aviation and very little in the way of Commuter Airlines. Cadets are going into the right hand seat as a First Officer with virtually no experience with around 200 hours total flight time. From here on in the only flying they will do before they become a Captain is the flying they do as a First Officer.

For many of these pilots it is a fact, their only real flying experience is "catering for passengers who flinch in mild turbulence".

Sadly it is likely to get even worse. An MPL or Multicrew Pilot Licence has been introduced and is being used in some parts of the world to fast track pilot training. You may be surprised (shocked) as to how little actual flying experience some pilots will have before they sit in the right hand seat of a jet as a First Officer (Co-pilot). As little of 30 hours in an aircraft with at a guess no more than 10 to 15 hours solo flight time.

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#2320875 20-Sep-2019 03:30

@Technofreak Quote: “Sadly it is likely to get even worse”.

.... and also due to the number of older pilots retiring and huge expected growth in airline aviation, there’s hundreds of thousands of new pilots needed over the next 20-30 years. There will be massive pressure to crank them out with the barest minimum training.

“Demand for air travel is growing so rapidly that 800,000 new pilots are expected to be needed over the next 20 years, according to Boeing’s latest forecast.”.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/boeing-ceo-says-global-pilot-shortage-is-one-of-the-biggest-challenges.html

Truly scary.

I saw this story yesterday about aircraft numbers rather than pilots - but it gives an idea of what is going on:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aviation-boeing/boeing-raises-20-year-forecast-for-china-aircraft-demand-idUSKBN1W207X

Forecast from Airbus:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/global-market-forecast.html

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#2320898 20-Sep-2019 08:32

Batman:
frankv:

Batman:

“Airmanship” ... cannot be expected of airline pilots who never fly solo and whose entire experience consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence, refer to “air pockets” in cocktail conversation and think they are near death if bank angles exceed 30 degrees. The problem exists for many American and European pilots, too. Unless they make extraordinary efforts — for instance, going out to fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes or wander among the airstrips of backcountry Idaho — they may never develop true airmanship no matter the length of their careers. The worst of them are intimidated by their airplanes and remain so until they retire or die.

No airline pilot's total experience "consists of catering to passengers who flinch in mild turbulence", no matter what nationality. They've *all* got to the airliner captain's seat by way of thousands of hours of flight experience, with several hundred hours in light aircraft and commuter airlines, with plenty of experience in solo flight, turbulence, and steep turns. And the vast majority of airline pilots are there because they love to fly, and therefore when not carting people to and from their holidays, they *do* fly aerobatics, fly sailplanes, or fly to out-of-the-way airstrips. It's not extraordinary efforts, it's just what they *want* to do.

So the article is not entirely good I take it

The article has good points and bad points. Yes there is an issue with pilot training that he highlights, however the article just handwaves away the very significant issues that have been found within Boeing (especially management)and its relationship with the FAA NTSB etc. It feels in some ways he is trying to push the blame back on to the foreign airlines and pilots to try to ease the fears of shareholders. Also I believe the early reports in the Ethiopian Air crash indicated they didn't have enough altitude to recover from the dive no matter how good the pilots may have been. Finally it doesn't matter how corrupt or lacking the airlines training scheme was if the vital information about the system was left out of the training material from Boeing.

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#2320925 20-Sep-2019 09:21

Varkk:
The article has good points and bad points. Yes there is an issue with pilot training that he highlights, however the article just handwaves away the very significant issues that have been found within Boeing (especially management)and its relationship with the FAA NTSB etc. It feels in some ways he is trying to push the blame back on to the foreign airlines and pilots to try to ease the fears of shareholders. Also I believe the early reports in the Ethiopian Air crash indicated they didn't have enough altitude to recover from the dive no matter how good the pilots may have been. Finally it doesn't matter how corrupt or lacking the airlines training scheme was if the vital information about the system was left out of the training material from Boeing.

Well said

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