Ukraine War discussion

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#2881431 9-Mar-2022 07:31

China offers to mediate. What a complete waste of news space.

Same as Russia says it will honour the evacuation zone (into Russia and Belarus)

They must think the West is stupid

Sidestep

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#2881440 9-Mar-2022 08:04

ezbee:

A more real threat than Nukes.

Its interesting that MBS and MBZ not that interested in pumping more oil ?
Europe seems to be short of friends ?

Though gas a worse problem as not that easy to replace pipeline volume from who ?

War in Ukraine: Russia says it may cut gas supplies if oil ban goes ahead
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60656673

""
The EU gets about 40% of its gas and 30% of its oil from Russia, and has no easy substitutes if supplies are disrupted.
""

Yes. At it's foundation this war's as much about Energy as it is about Russian Lebensraum..

Oil's still hugely important to the world, and in the last couple of years Russia's begun to loom as a fossil-energy superpower.
In spite of all the 'carbon-free energy' talk the world still runs on oil, with all (previous to last week) predictions showing an increasing demand for a couple more decades.

With support from both political parties Pres. Biden's announced a ban on Russian imports this morning.
It's going to be hard to replace because a decent amount of it's 'heavy' oil.

U.S. Gulf Coast refineries - in particular - import those heavier crude and unfinished oils from Russia to make products including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
Non-Russian sources of heavy crude are thin on the ground, Canada's one of the biggest, but exports to the US are constrained by pipelines.

Venezuela was formerly big producer of heavy crude but sanctions by the US have decimated their production, Iran's out of the picture - I wonder where they're planning to source it from?
The Alberta Premier's demanding Biden re-think his cancellation of permits for the KeystoneXL pipeline, saying it could be built within a year. Wags are now calling it the "Freedom Pipeline"

It's probably lucky that Marsden Point's transition from a refinery to 'Channel Infrastructure' operating a fuel import terminal means the last shipments of crude arrive this month.
I haven't checked, but can only hope they've fully hedged the refined product shipments they're about to start receiving.

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#2882429 9-Mar-2022 08:28

Poland's finally given in. They're going to give all their MIG-29's to Ukraine.

Poland's looking pretty heroic here (compared to say - Orban's Hungary)
They're flooded with refugees, and taking more while they and Romania, to a lesser extent, have become logistics and supply hubs - a conduit for weapons, supplies and manpower to Ukraine.

They've both got to ride a fine line and not do anything that looks like direct involvement in the war.
So the planes will be flown to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and rebranded as US aircraft in order to to keep Poland and Polish airbases officially clear of repercussions.

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#2883514 9-Mar-2022 10:34

McDonalds closes 850 outlets in Russian in protest.

Well, on the surface it seems like a nice flex, but they have effectively punished around 12,000 everyday Russians (Who almost certainly had no say) by cutting their income.

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#2883522 9-Mar-2022 10:46

networkn:
McDonalds closes 850 outlets in Russian in protest.

Well, on the surface it seems like a nice flex, but they have effectively punished around 12,000 everyday Russians (Who almost certainly had no say) by cutting their income.

They haven't cut their income, like many other companies they're continuing to pay employees while closing their store fronts.

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#2883524 9-Mar-2022 10:49

networkn:

McDonalds closes 850 outlets in Russian in protest.

Well, on the surface it seems like a nice flex, but they have effectively punished around 12,000 everyday Russians (Who almost certainly had no say) by cutting their income.

If enough everyday Russians feel the pain, public support for Putin's megalomania will diminish. Even a tyrant like him depends on popular appeal. Maybe that doesn't work in North Korea, but Russia is not North Korea.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2883590 9-Mar-2022 11:35

Coke, McDonald's & Starbucks have all quit doing business in Russia. Somehow they see this as a punishment? Please, what does NZ have to do to be "punished" the same way?

Megabyte - so geek it megahertz

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#2883592 9-Mar-2022 11:42

Rikkitic:

If enough everyday Russians feel the pain, public support for Putin's megalomania will diminish. Even a tyrant like him depends on popular appeal. Maybe that doesn't work in North Korea, but Russia is not North Korea.

I feel that's a pretty optimistic view of how this will play out. 9000 people affected in a population of 150M isn't going to put a dent in his 'popularity'. Even with everything else, I can't see this having a significant impact.

To my view, there is a fair bit of virtue signalling going on with a lot of these companies who are boycotting. If they are still out of Russia in 6 months, I'd be beyond surprised.

I am fairly confident that the strength of Putins convictions stretch beyond worrying if his citizens can get coke and Mcdonalds. :)

ezbee

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#2883595 9-Mar-2022 11:54

Ukrainian civilians pay in blood, forced into poverty with destroyed lives if lucky.
The whole of Europe is paying for millions of refugees and in prices that also tax their poor.
When
One highlight of below zero temperatures in Mariupol is that there is snow to melt for water,
if you have not frozen to death, or already dead from lack of clean water or food.
Then its more indiscriminate death from massed artillery and multiple rocket launchers wiping out grid squares.
It was 500'000 people, in just one city.

So its not unexpected some pain may be shared back to Russian population.
Perhaps one thing that can cut through propaganda there is 'Nothing to see Here'.
If there are very tangible things 'To see Here' inside Russia that can't be ignored.
The millions that walk past shuttered stores.

4th Failed evacuation
Ceasefire in words only and mined evacuation routes.
For a claim that they are liberating Russians, the indiscriminate attacks on civilians.
You surround towns then pound into oblivion with all contained therein.
Residential, Food Warehouses, Supermarkets, Water, Power, Hospitals, even Historic Churches from 1800's and earlier.

Russia Ukraine conflict: Shelling halts evacuation as Zelenskyy makes historic address
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1C0pQ-DBbw

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#2883599 9-Mar-2022 12:03

The US and Poland have come to an agreement for Poland to immediately transfer its MiG-29s to the US in exchange for used US jets. Ukraine is carefully not mentioned in the government announcement.

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#2883706 9-Mar-2022 12:24

networkn:

I feel that's a pretty optimistic view of how this will play out. 9000 people affected in a population of 150M isn't going to put a dent in his 'popularity'. Even with everything else, I can't see this having a significant impact.

To my view, there is a fair bit of virtue signalling going on with a lot of these companies who are boycotting. If they are still out of Russia in 6 months, I'd be beyond surprised.

I am fairly confident that the strength of Putins convictions stretch beyond worrying if his citizens can get coke and Mcdonalds. :)

As the Ruble continued it's collapse by another 30% today Russia's Central Bank suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9.
Until then "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) Ruble convertibility is over. Putin's destroyed the currency.

Fitch just downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a debt default is imminent.
There are going to be tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of Russians out of their well paying jobs next week.

Here are a few of the major companies closing their Russian facilities;

Fossil fuels: BP, Equinor, Exxon, Shell

Cars and planes (closing plants, stopping sales): Boeing and Airbus, Daimler Truck, Ferrari, Ford Motor Company, Harley-Davidson, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, Toyota,Volkswagen, Volvo

Consumer goods: Adidas, Airbnb, Budvar, Carlsberg, Disney, Estée Lauder, H&M, Ikea, Nike, Richemont, Swatch Group, TJX Cos., Unilever

Food and beverages: McDonald's, Cola-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks

Musicians, venues, promoters: AJR, Carnegie Hall, Nick Cave, Green Day, Health, Live Nation, Metropolitan Opera,Yungblud, Louis Tomlinson

Payment systems and accounting firms: Deloitte, Discover/Diners Club, Moody's, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Visa, Mastercard and American Express

Shipping: FedEx and UPS

Tech: Netflix, Apple, Dell, Fortinet, Google, Meta, Spotify, Trimble,TikTok

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#2883711 9-Mar-2022 12:29

Sidestep:

As the Ruble continued it's collapse by another 30% today Russia's Central Bank suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9.
Until then "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) Ruble convertibility is over. Putin's destroyed the currency.

Fitch just downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a debt default is imminent.
There are going to be tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of Russians out of their well paying jobs next week.

Here are a few of the major companies closing their Russian facilities;

Fossil fuels: BP, Equinor, Exxon, Shell

Cars and planes (closing plants, stopping sales): Boeing and Airbus, Daimler Truck, Ferrari, Ford Motor Company, Harley-Davidson, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, Toyota,Volkswagen, Volvo

Consumer goods: Adidas, Airbnb, Budvar, Carlsberg, Disney, Estée Lauder, H&M, Ikea, Nike, Richemont, Swatch Group, TJX Cos., Unilever

Food and beverages: McDonald's, Cola-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks

Musicians, venues, promoters: AJR, Carnegie Hall, Nick Cave, Green Day, Health, Live Nation, Metropolitan Opera,Yungblud, Louis Tomlinson

Payment systems and accounting firms: Deloitte, Discover/Diners Club, Moody's, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Visa, Mastercard and American Express

Shipping: FedEx and UPS

Tech: Netflix, Apple, Dell, Fortinet, Google, Meta, Spotify, Trimble,TikTok

Let's see how long they stop doing business in Russia for. That's the real test.

It's funny Unilever taking a stand on this, as one of the most evil and environmentally damaging companies in the known world.

There is an impact to this, no doubt, but I don't see it stopping Putin or usurping his reign in Russia, even if in the short term it's painful for them.

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#2883712 9-Mar-2022 12:30

tdgeek: China offers to mediate. What a complete waste of news space. Same as Russia says it will honour the evacuation zone (into Russia and Belarus)

Why would you think this is a complete waste of time? I guarantee you the government of Ukraine will take this offer very seriously. This war is creating bad outcomes for everyone worldwide China included.

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#2883713 9-Mar-2022 12:30

ezbee

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#2883715 9-Mar-2022 12:31

SaltyNZ:

The US and Poland have come to an agreement for Poland to immediately transfer its MiG-29s to the US in exchange for used US jets. Ukraine is carefully not mentioned in the government announcement.

Apparently it might be off again, or at least delayed. again

Pentagon says Poland's jet offer for Ukraine 'not tenable' - The Washington Post

Nothing like a sense of urgency as Kyiv is pretty much on verge of getting cut off with maybe 10 days supplies.

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