Israel & Middle East 2023

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Gurezaemon

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#309335 9-Oct-2023 16:24

So it looks like the Middle East has embarked on one of its spasms of self-destructive nihilism yet again, and we ought to have somewhere to discuss this. It'd be nice if it could be kept civil, but conversations about this part of the world rarely stay that way for long.

Thoughts?

I have a nasty feeling about how this could tie into the UA-RU war, cementing an autocratic Russia-Iran-Syria-North Korea block with a significant Russian ex-Wagnerite presence throughout Africa, against a democratic West.

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#3144660 9-Oct-2023 16:31

Gurezaemon:

It'd be nice if it could be kept civil, but conversations about this part of the world rarely stay that way for long.

A nice reminder for you folks to refresh your knowledge of our FUG.

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#3144663 9-Oct-2023 16:40

Some time ago I predicted that a World War-scale conflict would occur in the foreseeable future. I don't know if this terrible tragedy qualifies, but it certainly could be a step in that direction. All I can see from here is a continuing downward spiral. I think the Doomsday clock has just moved up another notch.

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freitasm

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#3144664 9-Oct-2023 16:42

The problem is some Arab nations are negotiating a peace agreement with Israel - and not many like Hamas because Iran/Syria supports them.

This means Saudi Arabia has significant incentives to continue negotiating with Israel and not helping Palestine. Anything to not let Iran influence in the region grow.

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SaltyNZ

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#3144797 10-Oct-2023 08:25

freitasm:

The problem is some Arab nations are negotiating a peace agreement with Israel - and not many like Hamas because Iran/Syria supports them.

This means Saudi Arabia has significant incentives to continue negotiating with Israel and not helping Palestine. Anything to not let Iran influence in the region grow.

Definitely a development to watch but as you say - Saudi has every reason to keep talking. It would be a significant diplomatic coup for them to come out of all this looking like the grown-up in the room.

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SJB

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#3144800 10-Oct-2023 08:45

Israel won't come to the negotiating table in any meaningful way while Netanyahu and the lunatic fringe are running the country.

And Hamas seems to think an ant attacking an elephant can somehow win.

It's ordinary Israelis and Palestinians who pay the price for these zealots actions.

freitasm

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#3144801 10-Oct-2023 08:46

To be clear, the peace agreement I referred to never involved Hamas because of the Iran connections.

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ezbee

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#3144806 10-Oct-2023 08:53

Saudi Arabia has had Iranian weapons attack its territory, and for many other reasons it was not such a friendly relationship.
Hamas is sponsored by Iran.

Don't forget how Hamas came to be the ruler of Gaza Strip, it does not brook any other Palestinian authority in Gaza Strip.

What is Hamas?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/8/what-is-the-group-hamas-a-simple-guide-tothe-palestinian-group

""
Hamas has been in power in the Gaza Strip since 2007 after a brief war against Fatah forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
""
Unlike the PLO, Hamas does not recognise Israel’s statehood but accepts a Palestinian state on 1967 borders.

“We shall not waive an inch of the Palestinian home soil no matter what the recent pressures are and no matter how long the occupation,” Khaled Meshaal, the leader-in-exile of the Palestinian group said in 2017.

Hamas violently opposes the Oslo peace accords negotiated by Israel and the PLO in the mid-1990s.
""

freitasm

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#3144809 10-Oct-2023 09:00

ezbee:

What is Hamas?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/8/what-is-the-group-hamas-a-simple-guide-tothe-palestinian-group

"Unlike the PLO, Hamas does not recognise Israel’s statehood but accepts a Palestinian state on 1967 borders."

And that's the main problem. They want the borders back but they still won't recognise Israel's statehood.

So what? Give them what they want, and they continue doing shit like this?

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SaltyNZ

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#3144810 10-Oct-2023 09:13

freitasm:

And that's the main problem.

The main problem is that nobody wants to end the cycle of violence by saying, "We are not taking revenge". Every attack is answered with an attack which is answered with an attack and so on ad infinitum. But it would certainly also help if Israel relaxed the Gaza blockade and afforded the Palestinian residents their basic human rights. In all likelihood this would never have happened otherwise.

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Gurezaemon

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#3144815 10-Oct-2023 09:37

SJB:

Israel won't come to the negotiating table in any meaningful way while Netanyahu and the lunatic fringe are running the country.

And Hamas seems to think an ant attacking an elephant can somehow win.

It's ordinary Israelis and Palestinians who pay the price for these zealots actions.

For Hamas, dead Palestinians (especially children) are a win, especially in the world of public opinion. Israel is dealing with an entity that will literally put its own citizens in harms way to make Israel look bad.

Israel has two options here — both awful. Either do nothing, and thus encourage Hamas to keep going, or invade and get their hostages back, in the process killing lots of Palestinians, thus giving Hamas the PR win.

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#3144821 10-Oct-2023 10:00

Horrific actions by militant Hamas against civilian women and children in a contested part of Israel. That type of action can’t be condoned in any way for any reason, neither is the response by Israel to bomb Gaza out of existence acceptable. Vengeance on both sides is fomenting more hatred and killing.

I understand the plight of Gaza and the Palestinians who have had their homes and land taken from them and the hatred this inspires but cruelty and evil actions as we saw in the last few days don’t improve their cause either. Hamas is hidden amongst civilians inside Gaza therefore you can’t blanket bomb the entire civilian population to take vengeance on a specific group.

Refusing to talk with the militants because they have been branded international terrorists is not going to help when Hamas mostly represent the views of their populace. One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter. International community must demand an immediate ceasefire and dialogue with both sides before this becomes a total bloodbath that will spread even to our own communities.

Lebanon via Hezbollah is already being drawn into this conflict, Syria will follow. All over the world you see supporters of both Palestine and Israel raising their voices in the streets and all it takes is some nutter among legitimate protesters from either side to ignite chaos even in our own sleepy country. Don’t discount the geopolitical significance of this if immediate ceasefire isn’t called.

It never ceases to trouble me that the countries that manufacture arms for sale and distribution which bring their economy billions may never have a true will for peace and in their board rooms they are clapping their hands at each new conflict. I suspect their words of shock horror are mainly lip service.

Here is a SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) document on who supplies and manufactures weapons.

https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/SIPRI-Top-100-2002-2021_0.xlsx

MikeB4

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#3144882 10-Oct-2023 11:09

This needless bloodshed yet again has its roots in post imperial Europe when lines were drawn on maps without regard or consultation with those affected.

SJB

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#3144886 10-Oct-2023 11:21

MikeB4:

This needless bloodshed yet again has its roots in post imperial Europe when lines were drawn on maps without regard or consultation with those affected.

Here's a good writeup on the disastrous British policy that led eventually to today's mess.

Balfour Declaration - Wikipedia

SaltyNZ

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#3144887 10-Oct-2023 11:25

Ah, the roots go back a good few thousand years earlier than that to the half-brothers Ishmael and Isaac.

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freitasm

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#3144901 10-Oct-2023 11:46

Attack Ends Israel’s Hope That Hamas Might Come to Embrace Stability - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Since its founding, Hamas has declared that Israel has no right to exist, that there are no Israeli civilians and that every Israeli citizen is a soldier of the state, and thus a legitimate target.

Still, if Western nations considered Hamas a terrorist organization, they also thought that it was preoccupied with governing Palestinians crammed into Gaza. Hamas provided social services. It was even thought of as a restraint on what were considered even more radical groups.

In Israel, successive governments cut quiet deals with Hamas, hoping to keep a form of stability in the Gaza Strip, which the group controls, especially after the Israelis withdrew unilaterally from the territory in 2005.

But the assault launched by Hamas this weekend, with more than 800 Israelis listed as killed so far and more than 150 believed taken as hostages and human shields into Gaza, has now stripped away any remaining illusions about the group or its intentions. The attack by Hamas into Israeli proper is notable for its terror, targeting not only uniformed soldiers, but also civilians, including women and children.

There is much the same disillusionment in the West, especially among Europeans who have provided significant aid to Gaza, some of which has always been siphoned off by Hamas. The horrors of the weekend now cast Hamas in a new light, one which is likely to have a major effect on events going forward.

The European Union, like the United States, has labeled Hamas a terrorist organization and officially boycotts it, but many Europeans see the group as freedom fighters struggling against an Israel that is slowly making a Palestinian state impossible.

For many in the West, especially the young and those on the left, “Gaza is a one-word argument for Israel’s brutality toward a blockaded enclave living in miserable conditions,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution.

Hamas, for them, was “fundamentally a nationalist resistance movement in the context of Gaza.” That view was shattered “for some, if not all, on Saturday,” he said.

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