roobarb: I'd like to compare internet traffic with a road system.
Broadcast TV, satellite and terrestrial, is incredibly efficient, its like have a single car containing a million people on a road, the internet is the reverse, it's a million cars with one person each. Of course, those million people in that single car must want to go the same place at the same time. Just building roads does not solve congestion, it encourages more traffic and just moves the problem around.
I think of it as a road network that was working along fine.
Except now you can get pizza delivered to your door but dominos and pizza hutt have decided they shall deliver all pizzas from one big oven in auckland. Thats going to congest the roads at many points along the way.
The solution I believe is regional internet exchanges with co-owned CDN boxes and openconnect.
The net neutrality issue that netflix is fighting in the USA is going to become a problem here in NZ over the next 5 years - and there are two solutions
1) Netflix installs cache nodes in every major town so the source gets closer to the destination
2) ISP's create more regional internet exchanges with co-owned netflix CDN caches.
Larger ISPs can install the caches with their own regional equipment - smaller ISPs will work together.
One thing i was told by the small ISPs in the USA is that a netflix box requires about a 100mbit uplink scheduled for about 6 hours a day to update and fill the content... probably not that much in NZ but in chatting to the guy from fullflavour, his box was using about 1gbit and had taken 18 hours to fill when i was looking at the graphs, and was still going strong. The data was filling from australia.