2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2607900 21-Nov-2020 07:40

Oblivian:

I was on a livestream last night from LA. And had to bite my tounge. Nearly all others on it further denying either the existence of, or that it was not really an issue. And lockdowns will never happen again cause they're ontop of it.

And on the same breath, saying they were not going to get vaccinated if it was an actual option on principal.

They're beyond help. Obviously the excitement and promises we see from the top in media aren't received as much as one would think. Damage has already been done.

American friend's relative has been hospitalised with covid. friend says the reason relative got sick was because they wore mask that wasn't washed. Americans have an answer for everything. don't argue with them.

kingdragonfly

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#2607910 21-Nov-2020 09:19

How many more people would be alive this year, if it wasn't for the irresponsible church leaders?

Maybe it's time for churches to start paying taxes, to counteract some of the damage done worldwide.

CNN: Church patriarch dies from Covid-19 after leading open-casket funeral of bishop killed by the virus

The head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Irinej, died ... after contracting coronavirus.

...Irinej, who was 90, led an open-casket funeral service for the church's top cleric in Montenegro...

Three days later, Irinej was admitted to hospital after testing positive for Covid-19.

Amfilohije's body had been displayed in an open casket during the service before being interred in ... Montenegro.

A large crowd had gathered in front of the crowded church, with only a few of the attendees inside the building wearing face coverings. Video of the service showed mourners kissing the deceased cleric's hands and forehead, as is custom.

None of the priests, including Irinej, who performed the liturgy, wore masks.

antonknee

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#2607937 21-Nov-2020 11:35

Batman: I can see why citizens get a little upset.oh dear

Kinda think they’d be more upset if the government did nothing, and SA goes from months of zero community transmission to a massive outbreak.

What is a government meant to do in this situation? You react based on the info and advice you have. A circuit breaker lockdown was absolutely the right call based on apparent spread from what would otherwise have been a very casual contact, a type of casual contact which would have been replicated hundreds of possibly thousands of times.

DS248

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#2607960 21-Nov-2020 13:08

WHO recommends against using remdesivir to treat Covid-19

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/health/who-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-guidelines/index.html

Batman

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#2608084 21-Nov-2020 19:50

iirc moderna vaccine has been trialled on 30,000 people ... apparently this has been trialled on over 1 million

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/asia/china-sinopharm-vaccine-test-intl-hnk/index.html

kingdragonfly

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#2608114 21-Nov-2020 20:58

Batman:
iirc moderna vaccine has been trialled on 30,000 people ... apparently this has been trialled on over 1 million

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/asia/china-sinopharm-vaccine-test-intl-hnk/index.html

It's hard to completely trust the Chinese to release all results, positive and negative.

I'm not saying I'd completely trust an an American biotechnology company either, since they are for-profit and ultimately answer to shareholders. You just have to look at the ongoing opioid crisis to see their loyalties.

Perhaps I'm getting to jaded. I still hope for a return to normalcy.

DS248

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#2608125 21-Nov-2020 21:32

South Australia 1 new case yesterday, off 19,205 tests. Per capita equivalent to ~57,000 tests a day for NZ!

https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/public+content/sa+health+internet/about+us/news+and+media/all+media+releases/covid-19+update+21+november+2020

No local cases elsewhere in AU yesterday, Vic now 22 days since last case, so closing in on elimination.

NSW 11 days since last local case.

Singapore 11 days since last local case.

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chatterbox

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#2608165 22-Nov-2020 02:13

DS248:
South Australia 1 new case yesterday, off 19,205 tests. Per capita equivalent to ~57,000 tests a day for NZ!

https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/public+content/sa+health+internet/about+us/news+and+media/all+media+releases/covid-19+update+21+november+2020

No local cases elsewhere in AU yesterday, Vic now 22 days since last case, so closing in on elimination.

NSW 11 days since last local case.

Singapore 11 days since last local case.

Most importantly that case was in quarantine. Expecting future positives also to be already quarantining unless there’s a missed contact. Either way SA looking good to clear their cases in December to get back to zero.

NSW has gone 14 days without locally acquired infections.

wellygary

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#2608224 22-Nov-2020 07:52

The way things are going most ( possible all ex SA) could be 28 days without CT by 1 Dec... then the heat comes back on NZ as that was our big trigger... also Australia stayed open to NZ through the “quarantine “ cluster .. so they seem to be happy with our response ...

The big question for NZ is the Australia internal border responses to outbreaks .. some closed to SA some didn’t ... this needs to be standardised ... and SA didn’t even meet their own hotspot criteria

kingdragonfly

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#2608315 22-Nov-2020 10:56

New York Times:: Pfizer’s vaccine is under F.D.A. review, and Moderna’s may not be far behind. But what does 95% effective mean?

The drug maker Pfizer said on Friday that it had submitted an application to the Food and Drug Administration to authorize its coronavirus vaccine for emergency use, setting in motion an accelerated regulatory process that could allow some Americans to get a vaccine by the middle of December.

Regulators at the F.D.A. plan to take about three weeks to review Pfizer’s vaccine before an outside panel of experts meets to review the application the second week of December. That meeting has been scheduled for Dec. 10.

The agency typically, though not always, follows the advice of its advisory committees. If committee members reach a consensus about the effectiveness of Pfizer’s vaccine, the company could receive emergency clearance by mid-December.

Another front-runner, Moderna, is also on the verge of submitting its vaccine for review, and the outside panel could review the company’s vaccine soon after Pfizer’s. Both use a synthetic version of coronavirus genetic material, called mRNA, to program a person’s cells to churn out many copies of a fragment of the virus, teaching the immune system how to build a protective response.

Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, announced on Wednesday that their vaccine was 95 percent effective. Moderna said on Monday that its vaccine was 94.5 percent effective.

You might assume that means that these vaccines will protect 95 out of 100 people who get them. But exactly how the vaccines perform out in the real world will depend on a lot of factors we just don’t have answers to yet.

Here are some things to consider about the vaccines’ actual effectiveness.

What’s the difference between efficacy and effectiveness?

Efficacy is a measurement made during a clinical trial, while effectiveness describes how well it works in real life. If previous vaccines are any guide, effectiveness may prove somewhat lower than the impressive efficacy found in clinical trials.

That’s because the people who join clinical trials are not a perfect reflection of the population at large. Out in the real world, people may have a host of chronic health problems that could interfere with a vaccine’s protection, for example.

What exactly are these vaccines effective at doing?

The clinical trials run by Pfizer and other companies were specifically designed to see whether vaccines protect people from getting sick from Covid-19. So only volunteers who developed symptoms like a fever or cough were tested for the coronavirus. But it’s possible that some people who got vaccinated in the trials got infected without developing symptoms. If those cases exist, none of them are reflected in the 95 percent efficacy rate, and the real rate would actually be lower.

Will these vaccines put a dent in the epidemic?

Even a vaccine with extremely high efficacy in clinical trials will have a small impact if only a few people end up getting it. A. David Paltiel, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, modeled different vaccines based on their efficacy rates, and also how quickly and widely they can be distributed....

chatterbox

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#2608317 22-Nov-2020 11:06

wellygary: The way things are going most ( possible all ex SA) could be 28 days without CT by 1 Dec... then the heat comes back on NZ as that was our big trigger... also Australia stayed open to NZ through the “quarantine “ cluster .. so they seem to be happy with our response ...

The big question for NZ is the Australia internal border responses to outbreaks .. some closed to SA some didn’t ... this needs to be standardised ... and SA didn’t even meet their own hotspot criteria

Part of the drive to open to NZ was to free up space in HQ for returning Aussie travellers. Some 30k still to return.

Can’t see internal borders being standardized. The only 2 difficult states to deal with are Queensland and WA. Once those borders shut they’re difficult to get open. At least Queensland tend to stick to their 28 day stance. WA are almost unpredictable.

I believe the hotspot definition is to help determine when commonwealth support is required. It doesn’t apply to domestic border closures or internal lockdowns. That remains the domain of individual states and territories. There have been at least 3 different criteria used across Australia for reopening. Closing borders appears dependent on the narrative behind the cases.

Fred99

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#2608319 22-Nov-2020 11:16

I guess Pfizer / BioNtech may be very keen to get some return on investment very quickly - they've got commitments from governments to buy the vaccine but the infrastructure required to store and transport it is going to make Moderna's vaccine (and others) much more attractive for widespread use. There's no apparent advantage to the Pfizer vaccine except they're ahead - but only by a few days.

kingdragonfly

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#2608735 23-Nov-2020 08:01

Washington Post: Health experts urge against Thanksgiving gatherings this Thursday as coronavirus cases explode in America

Health experts continue to urge Americans not to travel and gather for Thanksgiving as a fall wave of the virus worsens across the country, with case counts nearing 200,000 a day.

In the past week, the new daily reported case counts in the United States spiked nearly 14 percent, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.

“If you look at the map of spread across the country, you can see the risk; it’s very visible. And moving through airports or travel hubs, I think that will increase people’s risk,” Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said on “Fox News Sunday.” “Even if they’re driving from point to point, unfortunately, we don’t know if we’re infected when we walk into a gathering.”

He referred to recent data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that said most infections are spread by people with no symptoms. The CDC, during its first news briefing in months on Thursday, recommended against traveling and gathering for Thanksgiving and said people should instead celebrate in their own households....

kingdragonfly

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#2608736 23-Nov-2020 08:04

Here's a way to visual risk of attending Thanksgiving.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

Oblivian

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#2608980 23-Nov-2020 11:33

And some form of study into all the Duba/Qatar/Long range flights ending up positive when they have no-neg-no-fly

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-four-infected-on-same-nz-flight-despite-negative-test/6NAY4IXZ25KNK5LVSVQC43CMBI/

"These seven cases were found to have been seated within four rows of each other during the approximately 18-hour flight," the NZ study states.

..

The results of the study could spell trouble for US travellers as they crowd airports for the country's annual Thanksgiving holiday.

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